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[北大西洋] 2011年6月上旬加勒比海强热带波94L

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发表于 2011-6-2 10:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

2. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
two_atl.gif
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-2 10:14 | 显示全部楼层
NOAA颇为看好,一旦成为LPA就编LPA临时号。
发表于 2011-6-3 02:16 | 显示全部楼层
A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2011-6-4 11:15 | 显示全部楼层
NRL編號94L

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-4 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
4# sylar

NHC的AOR内美军系统无权发报,无权编LPA临时号,是NHC编临时号,NHC不能运行,由HPC编临时号.都和美军无关.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-4 12:06 | 显示全部楼层
WHXX01 KWBC 040017
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0017 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110604 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110604  0000   110604  1200   110605  0000   110605  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.3N  77.8W   16.8N  78.2W   16.9N  79.0W   17.0N  80.3W
BAMD    16.3N  77.8W   17.1N  77.7W   17.4N  77.9W   17.6N  78.4W
BAMM    16.3N  77.8W   16.8N  78.0W   16.9N  78.5W   16.9N  79.5W
LBAR    16.3N  77.8W   16.9N  77.8W   17.9N  77.7W   19.0N  77.2W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          36KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          36KTS          39KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110606  0000   110607  0000   110608  0000   110609  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  81.1W   16.5N  82.1W   16.4N  82.9W   16.6N  84.0W
BAMD    17.8N  79.0W   18.8N  79.9W   20.9N  77.8W   23.3N  73.1W
BAMM    17.0N  80.4W   17.2N  81.5W   17.6N  81.9W   18.6N  82.5W
LBAR    20.2N  75.9W   22.1N  70.5W   26.4N  60.9W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        43KTS          52KTS          47KTS          37KTS
DSHP        43KTS          52KTS          47KTS          37KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.3N LONCUR =  77.8W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   0KT
LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  77.7W DIRM12 =  50DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  15.5N LONM24 =  79.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-5 10:46 | 显示全部楼层
WHXX01 KWBC 050033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC SUN JUN 5 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110605 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110605  0000   110605  1200   110606  0000   110606  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.1N  78.7W   16.3N  79.8W   16.5N  80.4W   16.5N  80.9W
BAMD    16.1N  78.7W   16.3N  79.5W   16.6N  80.2W   17.1N  80.8W
BAMM    16.1N  78.7W   16.2N  79.7W   16.4N  80.6W   16.6N  81.2W
LBAR    16.1N  78.7W   16.7N  79.4W   17.7N  79.8W   18.7N  79.4W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110607  0000   110608  0000   110609  0000   110610  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.6N  81.0W   16.4N  81.2W   16.6N  82.2W   16.9N  83.3W
BAMD    18.0N  80.9W   21.0N  78.4W   24.9N  75.9W   28.8N  76.7W
BAMM    16.9N  81.5W   17.7N  81.2W   19.1N  81.5W   21.3N  82.0W
LBAR    19.9N  78.5W   21.9N  74.1W   25.8N  66.4W   29.5N  54.2W
SHIP        40KTS          38KTS          25KTS           0KTS
DSHP        40KTS          38KTS          25KTS           0KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.1N LONCUR =  78.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  16.2N LONM12 =  77.8W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  16.3N LONM24 =  77.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  175NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-6 11:04 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA.  WHILE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS CONCENTRATED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA OF LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURES...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-6 11:05 | 显示全部楼层
WHXX01 KWBC 060023
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC MON JUN 6 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110606 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110606  0000   110606  1200   110607  0000   110607  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  80.1W   17.3N  80.9W   17.7N  81.6W   18.0N  82.3W
BAMD    16.9N  80.1W   17.6N  80.7W   18.9N  80.9W   20.4N  80.4W
BAMM    16.9N  80.1W   17.5N  80.8W   18.2N  81.2W   18.8N  81.3W
LBAR    16.9N  80.1W   17.8N  80.6W   18.9N  80.5W   19.9N  79.9W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          30KTS          31KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          30KTS          31KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110608  0000   110609  0000   110610  0000   110611  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N  83.1W   18.4N  85.0W   18.4N  86.4W   18.6N  87.9W
BAMD    22.3N  79.5W   26.4N  78.2W   29.6N  80.0W   31.2N  82.6W
BAMM    19.5N  81.5W   21.2N  82.3W   22.9N  83.2W   24.2N  84.7W
LBAR    20.9N  78.7W   22.3N  75.9W   24.9N  73.7W   27.6N  72.0W
SHIP        30KTS          19KTS           0KTS           0KTS
DSHP        30KTS          19KTS           0KTS           0KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.9N LONCUR =  80.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  16.4N LONM12 =  79.4W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  16.1N LONM24 =  78.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  175NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  275NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-7 14:51 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.  THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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