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[北大西洋] 2011年6月北大西洋LPA(AL93)

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发表于 2011-6-1 10:21 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
WHXX01 KWBC 010155
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0155 UTC WED JUN 1 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110601 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110601  0000   110601  1200   110602  0000   110602  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    33.0N  73.2W   31.5N  76.7W   30.6N  80.2W   29.8N  83.9W
BAMD    33.0N  73.2W   31.6N  76.4W   30.8N  79.0W   30.1N  81.2W
BAMM    33.0N  73.2W   31.4N  76.8W   30.3N  80.3W   29.4N  83.8W
LBAR    33.0N  73.2W   31.3N  75.3W   30.2N  76.9W   29.6N  78.4W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          37KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          33KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110603  0000   110604  0000   110605  0000   110606  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.5N  87.7W   31.6N  94.8W   36.1N  97.0W   38.1N  93.6W
BAMD    29.3N  83.5W   28.8N  89.6W   31.0N  95.4W   32.5N  97.6W
BAMM    28.8N  87.4W   29.8N  95.0W   33.1N  99.6W   35.5N 100.2W
LBAR    29.0N  79.7W   27.5N  82.5W   26.8N  84.6W   27.0N  86.8W
SHIP        40KTS          47KTS          56KTS          62KTS
DSHP        36KTS          37KTS          28KTS          27KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  33.0N LONCUR =  73.2W DIRCUR = 210DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  35.5N LONM12 =  70.7W DIRM12 = 207DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  38.7N LONM24 =  69.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1017MB OUTPRS = 1019MB OUTRAD =  170NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN
HUIR.jpg
发表于 2011-6-1 12:30 | 显示全部楼层
20110531.2316.f16.x.composite.93LINVEST.25kts-1017mb-330N-732W.78pc.jpg |
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-1 20:09 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-1 20:11 | 显示全部楼层
WHXX01 KWBC 010641
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0641 UTC WED JUN 1 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110601 0600 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110601  0600   110601  1800   110602  0600   110602  1800

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    32.0N  75.5W   31.0N  79.1W   30.2N  82.5W   29.8N  86.3W
BAMD    32.0N  75.5W   31.0N  78.7W   30.2N  81.1W   29.3N  83.6W
BAMM    32.0N  75.5W   30.9N  79.1W   30.0N  82.4W   29.3N  86.0W
LBAR    32.0N  75.5W   30.7N  78.0W   29.7N  80.4W   29.1N  82.4W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          38KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          28KTS          34KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110603  0600   110604  0600   110605  0600   110606  0600

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.6N  89.9W   32.8N  96.3W   37.3N  97.6W   39.5N  94.5W
BAMD    28.4N  86.3W   29.5N  92.7W   31.8N  97.3W   33.2N  98.8W
BAMM    28.8N  89.7W   31.0N  96.5W   34.3N 100.0W   36.8N 100.3W
LBAR    28.1N  84.6W   27.0N  88.8W   26.4N  92.6W   26.0N  95.3W
SHIP        41KTS          50KTS          59KTS          66KTS
DSHP        36KTS          31KTS          27KTS          27KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  32.0N LONCUR =  75.5W DIRCUR = 230DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  34.2N LONM12 =  72.1W DIRM12 = 226DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  37.1N LONM24 =  70.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1017MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-1 21:02 | 显示全部楼层
WHXX01 KWBC 011224
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1224 UTC WED JUN 1 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110601 1200 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110601  1200   110602  0000   110602  1200   110603  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.3N  78.5W   29.3N  82.1W   28.5N  86.0W   28.0N  89.9W
BAMD    30.3N  78.5W   29.4N  81.6W   28.5N  84.3W   27.8N  87.0W
BAMM    30.3N  78.5W   29.5N  81.9W   28.7N  85.4W   28.3N  89.0W
LBAR    30.3N  78.5W   29.3N  81.8W   28.6N  84.8W   28.1N  87.7W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          34KTS          38KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110603  1200   110604  1200   110605  1200   110606  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.6N  93.9W   32.8N  99.3W   37.0N 100.2W   40.0N  97.2W
BAMD    27.5N  90.1W   29.7N  96.1W   31.8N  99.2W   33.2N  99.4W
BAMM    28.4N  92.5W   31.0N  98.4W   33.9N 101.5W   36.3N 102.1W
LBAR    27.6N  90.9W   27.4N  96.3W   27.2N  99.1W   26.6N 100.1W
SHIP        44KTS          54KTS          61KTS          67KTS
DSHP        41KTS          30KTS          27KTS          27KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  30.3N LONCUR =  78.5W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR =  21KT
LATM12 =  32.2N LONM12 =  74.0W DIRM12 = 234DEG SPDM12 =  22KT
LATM24 =  35.3N LONM24 =  70.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN
发表于 2011-6-2 08:15 | 显示全部楼层
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 25 MPH.   atl1.gif at201193_model.gif
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-2 09:51 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 25 MPH.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-2 09:52 | 显示全部楼层
WHXX01 KWBC 020056
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC THU JUN 2 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110602 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110602  0000   110602  1200   110603  0000   110603  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.5N  84.5W   27.9N  88.2W   27.6N  91.8W   28.4N  95.4W
BAMD    28.5N  84.5W   27.7N  87.2W   27.2N  90.1W   27.3N  93.0W
BAMM    28.5N  84.5W   27.6N  88.1W   27.2N  91.6W   27.3N  94.8W
LBAR    28.5N  84.5W   27.7N  88.6W   27.1N  92.3W   27.0N  95.7W
SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          38KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          38KTS          42KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110604  0000   110605  0000   110606  0000   110607  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.8N  98.3W   33.2N 101.9W   36.2N 103.1W   38.6N 102.2W
BAMD    28.1N  95.7W   29.1N  99.4W   28.9N 101.1W   28.3N 101.3W
BAMM    28.3N  97.6W   30.0N 101.6W   31.0N 104.0W   31.9N 105.1W
LBAR    27.5N  98.6W   27.7N 101.7W   26.2N 103.4W   24.3N 103.3W
SHIP        44KTS          43KTS          41KTS          43KTS
DSHP        36KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  28.5N LONCUR =  84.5W DIRCUR = 252DEG SPDCUR =  26KT
LATM12 =  30.0N LONM12 =  78.3W DIRM12 = 246DEG SPDM12 =  24KT
LATM24 =  32.2N LONM24 =  74.0W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =   60NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN
发表于 2011-6-3 02:16 | 显示全部楼层
可見光出現LLCC,可惜為時已晚。
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-6-3 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
WHXX01 KWBC 030028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC FRI JUN 3 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110603 0000 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110603  0000   110603  1200   110604  0000   110604  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.5N  91.0W   23.4N  93.4W   23.6N  95.6W   23.9N  97.8W
BAMD    23.5N  91.0W   23.7N  92.1W   24.2N  93.6W   24.5N  95.2W
BAMM    23.5N  91.0W   23.0N  93.0W   22.8N  94.9W   22.5N  96.5W
LBAR    23.5N  91.0W   22.5N  93.1W   22.1N  95.0W   22.0N  96.9W
SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          24KTS          24KTS
DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          24KTS          24KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110605  0000   110606  0000   110607  0000   110608  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.1N 100.0W   24.4N 103.9W   24.3N 106.1W   23.7N 107.1W
BAMD    24.6N  96.8W   23.5N  99.5W   22.1N 101.0W   21.4N 101.7W
BAMM    22.0N  98.2W   20.4N 101.5W   18.9N 104.0W   18.1N 106.3W
LBAR    22.2N  99.2W   22.0N 104.1W   21.3N 107.6W   21.3N 108.7W
SHIP        23KTS          23KTS          30KTS          36KTS
DSHP        23KTS          26KTS          27KTS          36KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  23.5N LONCUR =  91.0W DIRCUR = 228DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  25.0N LONM12 =  88.8W DIRM12 = 223DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  28.5N LONM24 =  84.5W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =   60NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

$$
NNNN
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