|
老J#9
WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.0N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.6N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.0N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.9N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 136.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE 22/06Z PGTW SATELLITE ANALYSIS FIX AND INTERPOLATED FROM MSI
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES, RJTD, AND PGTW RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP AND PALAU, JUST EAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IN RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY (220446Z AMSRE) SUPPORT AN INTENSITY AT THE LOWER
END OF THIS RANGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW (THOUGH IMPROVING),
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. TS SONGDA IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48, BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND
GFDN, WHICH ARE AT THE OUTER EXTENTS OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, BUT HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS (FAVORING ECMWF, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND
EGRR) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// |
组图打开中,请稍候......
|