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发表于 2011-5-27 05:11
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WTPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.2N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.7N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 28.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 33.7N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 37.0N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 124.3E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A 10 NM SYMMETRIC EYE AND A 261712Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS THE EYE AND THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. STY 04W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW
STY 04W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, STY SONGDA SHOULD MAINTAIN STY INTENSITY
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS STY 04W BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, IT
WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND LOW SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSITION FULLY INTO A STRONG
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. THEN, SOME ADDITIONAL SPREAD
OCCURS WITH NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACKING FARTHER NORTHWARD, JUST SOUTH
OF KYOTO, JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TRANSLATION SPEED. GFDN, NOGAPS, WBAR ARE THE FASTER MODELS WHILE
AVNI, EGRR, AND JGSI REMAIN GENERALLY SLOWER. THIS FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 48 IS RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL
RECURVATURE SCENARIO ERRORS. FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 96, THE
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//
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