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[南半球] 2011年21S.ERROL

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-16 16:55 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0124 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.7S
Longitude: 125.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [324 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1200: 11.0S 124.4E:     050 [095]:  050  [095]:  989
+24: 17/0000: 10.7S 123.4E:     080 [150]:  045  [085]:  992
+36: 17/1200: 10.5S 122.1E:     110 [210]:  035  [065]:  998
+48: 18/0000: 10.7S 120.7E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60: 18/1200: 11.0S 119.3E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1000
+72: 19/0000: 11.2S 117.8E:     240 [445]:  030  [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
The current position is based on microwave and visible imagery.
Tight convective banding on visible images gives a wrap -0.8 yielding a DT=3.5.
MET was 4.0 based on a D trend and PAT was 3.5. So FT and CI were set to 3.5
with max winds [10 minute] of 50 knots. This is in agreement with SATCON [57
knots at 18 UTC]. ADT gives initial raw T values between 3.2 and 3.5 over the
last 6 hours.  
The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C,
as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Errol is now far
enough away from the north Kimberley coast that the threat of gales has passed.
Consensus of NWP indicates good confidence in the forecast west to northwest
track in the next 72 hours.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with the 00Z CIMSS analysis of 4.5 m/s.
A good poleward outflow channel is evident on satellite imagery. Intensity is
maintained at 50 knots for the next 18 hours. An amplifying upper level trough
over eastern Australia will increase shear in the next 24-48 hours, weakening
the cyclone as it moves closer to the eastern Indonesian islands. Given the
small size of the system, this may lead to rapid weakening. The system may also
weaken due to the ingestion of dry air although this is difficult to diagnose.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-16 16:57 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0704 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.3S
Longitude: 124.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northwest [319 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/1800: 10.6S 123.9E:     050 [095]:  055  [100]:  986
+24: 17/0600: 10.3S 122.9E:     080 [150]:  045  [085]:  992
+36: 17/1800: 10.3S 121.9E:     110 [210]:  035  [065]:  998
+48: 18/0600: 10.6S 120.8E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]: 1001
+60: 18/1800: 11.0S 119.4E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1001
+72: 19/0600: 11.4S 118.1E:     240 [445]:  030  [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
The current position is based on visible imagery.
The 2155 UTC tc_ssmis image showed deep convection wrapping completely around
the LLCC. An eye emerged on EIR imagery between 2330 UTC and 0130 UTC with DTs
between 4 and 4.5.
Tight convective banding on recent visible images gives a wrap -1.2 yielding a
DT of 4.0. MET was 3.5 based on a D- trend and PAT was 3.5. With clear DTs, FT
and CI were set to 4.0 with max winds [10 minute] of 55 knots.
The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C,
as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Consensus of NWP
indicates good confidence in the forecast west to northwest track in the next 72
hours.
Environmental wind shear is favourable, with the 06Z CIMSS analysis of 2.6 m/s.
Intensity is maintained at 55 knots for the next 12 hours. Errol may still be at
category 2 intensity as it approaches the eastern Indonesian islands although
there is a fair degree of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. This is mainly
due to the likelihood of dry air intrusion. The system is also likely to weaken
due to the interaction with land. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24
to 48 hours which will further weaken the system.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-16 17:21 | 显示全部楼层
19# 开尔文
根据南半球托管TC的RSMC和TCWC的规定,南半球风季定为11月1日到次年的4月30。其中12-3月最频发,和西北太生成TC的频率接近。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-16 23:21 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1333 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 124.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: north northwest [331 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0000: 10.6S 124.1E:     050 [095]:  050  [095]:  990
+24: 17/1200: 10.1S 123.0E:     080 [150]:  040  [075]:  996
+36: 18/0000: 10.2S 121.6E:     110 [210]:  035  [065]:  999
+48: 18/1200: 10.4S 120.1E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]: 1002
+60: 19/0000: 10.9S 118.9E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72: 19/1200: 11.7S 117.7E:     240 [445]:  030  [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
The current position is based on recent microwave imagery. The earlier 09 UTC
fix was re-analysied on the basis of a 0933Z Windsat mircowave image.
The convective structure has shown signs of weakening in the last 3 hours. The
0728 UTC TMI mircowave image showed a small, tightly wrapped convective band to
the south, however, subsequent passes of tc_ssmis indicate weaker curvature of
the southern band and development of a secondary band to the northwest of the
system.
Dvorak analysis of EIR imagery has been difficult, with the LLCC located beneath
a CDO. Current DT is 3.5 based on a 1.1 wrap. On a 24hr W- trend, the Pattern
adjusted MET would be 2.5, however this is constrained to 3.5 based on a change
of 0.5 over 6hrs. CI is maintained at 4.0 on initial weakening.
The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C,
as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system. Consensus of NWP
indicates reasonable confidence in the forecast west to northwest track in the
next 72 hours.
Environmental wind shear remains favourable, with the 12 UTC CIMSS analysis of
3.3 m/s. Intensity is maintained at 55 knots for the next 6 hours, then
weakening as Errol begins to interact with land. Errol may still be at category
2 intensity as it approaches the eastern Indonesian islands although there is a
fair degree of uncertainty in the intensity forecast, particularly if the recent
weakening trend continues. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48
hours which will further weaken the system.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

快登陆印尼了,将逐渐减弱。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-16 23:35 | 显示全部楼层
IDJ20050
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            COASTAL ZONE WARNING

FOR COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN KUPANG AND ROTE ISLAND
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 21:41 WIB 16/04/2011

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

NOTE: latitudes and longitudes are in decimal degrees.

SITUATION AT 19:00 WIB:
Tropical Cyclone ERROL was located within 20 nautical miles of 11.0 S 124.7 E about 80 nautical miles southeast of Kupangcand 90 nautical miles east of Rote with central pressure 986 hectopascals moving north northwest at 4 knots.


Centre forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of 10.1 S 123.0 E about 40 nautical miles west of Kupang at 19:00 WIB Sunday.

STRONG WIND WARNING:
For coastal waters BETWEEN SAWU ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND
winds 20/30 knots. Scattered squalls to 45 knots.

Moderation is expected in 12-24 hours.


HIGH WAVES WARNING:
For coastal waters SAWU ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND
Maximum wave height could reach 3 metres and swell could reach 1.2 metres.
Moderation is expected in 12-24 hours.

NEXT WARNING:
01:00 WIB 17/04/2011
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-17 10:52 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1925 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.1S
Longitude: 124.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [299 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0600: 10.7S 123.7E:     050 [095]:  045  [085]:  993
+24: 17/1800: 10.5S 122.4E:     080 [150]:  035  [065]:  999
+36: 18/0600: 10.7S 121.0E:     110 [210]:  030  [055]: 1001
+48: 18/1800: 11.1S 119.6E:     145 [270]:  030  [055]: 1002
+60: 19/0600: 11.8S 118.5E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72: 19/1800: 12.3S 117.1E:     240 [445]:  030  [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
The current position is based on animated satellite imagery.

Dvorak analysis of EIR imagery remains difficult, with the LLCC located close to
the edge of the western convective band. Current DT is 3.5 based on a 1.0 wrap.
On a 24hr W trend, MET=PAT=2.5, however FT is set to 3.0 constrained by  a
change of 0.5 over 6 hours. CI is 3.5 as the system begins to weaken.

The system is expected to move towards the west-northwest, over SSTs of 28-29C,
as a mid-level ridge develops to the south of the system.  Consensus of NWP
indicates reasonable confidence in the forecast west to northwest track in the
next 72 hours.

Environmental wind shear remains favourable, with the 18 UTC CIMSS analysis of
4.4 m/s. Intensity is maintained at the current level for the next 12 hours,
then weakening as Errol begins to interact with land. Errol may still be at
category 2 intensity as it approaches the eastern Indonesian islands although
there is a fair degree of uncertainty in the intensity forecast, particularly if
the recent weakening trend continues.

Future information for this system will be provided by Jakarta Tropical Cyclone
Warning Centre, available at http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/siklon


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it re-enters the
Western Region.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-17 10:54 | 显示全部楼层
IDJ20050
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            COASTAL ZONE WARNING

FOR COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN KUPANG AND ROTE ISLAND
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 03:01 WIB 17/04/2011

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

NOTE: latitudes and longitudes are in decimal degrees.

SITUATION AT 01:00 WIB:
Tropical Cyclone ERROL was located within 30 nautical miles of 11.1 S 124.4 E about 70 nautical miles southeast of Kupangcand 75 nautical miles east southeast of Rote with central pressure 991 hectopascals moving northwest at 2 knots.


Centre forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of 10.5 S 122.4 E about 80 nautical miles west southwest of Kupang at 01:00 WIB Monday.

STRONG WIND WARNING:
For coastal waters BETWEEN SAWU ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND
winds 20/30 knots. Scattered squalls to 45 knots.

Moderation is expected in 12-24 hours.


HIGH WAVES WARNING:
For coastal waters SAWU ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND
Maximum wave height could reach 3 metres and swell could reach 1.2 metres.
Moderation is expected in 12-24 hours.

NEXT WARNING:
01:00 WIB 17/04/2011
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-17 11:18 | 显示全部楼层
IDJ20050
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

            COASTAL ZONE WARNING

FOR COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN KUPANG AND ROTE ISLAND
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 10:07 WIB 17/04/2011

PLEASE BE AWARE
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

NOTE: latitudes and longitudes are in decimal degrees.

SITUATION AT 07:00 WIB:
Tropical Cyclone ERROL was located within 30 nautical miles of 10.9 S 124.1 E about 50 nautical miles south southeast of Kupangcand 55 nautical miles east of Rote with central pressure 993 hectopascals moving west at 3 knots.


Centre forecast to be within 90 nautical miles of 10.7 S 122.4 E about 80 nautical miles west southwest of Kupang at 07:00 WIB Monday.

STRONG WIND WARNING:
For coastal waters BETWEEN TIMOR ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND
winds 20/30 knots. Scattered squalls to 45 knots.
Moderation is expected in 12-24 hours.


HIGH WAVES WARNING:
For coastal waters TIMOR ISLAND AND ROTE ISLAND
Maximum wave height could reach 4 metres and swell could reach 1.2 metres.
Moderation is expected in 12-24 hours.

NEXT WARNING:
14:00 WIB 17/04/2011
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-17 11:20 | 显示全部楼层
EGC:2:1:24:11S124E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

            HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 03:00 UTC 17 April 2011

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone ERROL 993 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 10.9 S 124.1 E moving west at 3 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 45 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 45 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 45 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 45 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 45 knots expected to decrease to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 17 April:  Within 60 nautical miles of 10.7 S 123.3 E
                        Central pressure 999 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 18 April: Within 90 nautical miles of 10.7 S 122.4 E
                        Central pressure 1001 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 07:00 UTC 17 April 2011.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
BMKG在JMA的帮助下发TC报。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-4-17 11:24 | 显示全部楼层
这是TCWC Jakarta2008年成立以来第4次发TC报,不过还是需JMA帮助。
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