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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA  WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1333 UTC 16/04/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 11.0S
Longitude: 124.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: north northwest [331 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 17/0000: 10.6S 124.1E: 050 [095]: 050 [095]: 990
+24: 17/1200: 10.1S 123.0E: 080 [150]: 040 [075]: 996
+36: 18/0000: 10.2S 121.6E: 110 [210]: 035 [065]: 999
+48: 18/1200: 10.4S 120.1E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 1002
+60: 19/0000: 10.9S 118.9E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1002
+72: 19/1200: 11.7S 117.7E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
The current position is based on recent microwave imagery. The earlier 09 UTC
fix was reanalysied on the basis of a 0933Z Windsat mircowave image.
The convective structure has shown signs of weakening in the last 3 hours. The
0728 UTC TMI mircowave image showed a small, tightly wrapped convective band to
the south, however, subsequent passes of tc_ssmis indicate weaker curvature of
the southern band and development of a secondary band to the northwest of the
system.
Dvorak analysis of EIR imagery has been difficult, with the LLCC located beneath
a CDO. Current DT is 3.5 based on a 1.1 wrap. On a 24hr W trend, the Pattern
adjusted MET would be 2.5, however this is constrained to 3.5 based on a change
of 0.5 over 6hrs. CI is maintained at 4.0 on initial weakening.
The system is expected to move towards the westnorthwest, over SSTs of 2829C,
as a midlevel ridge develops to the south of the system. Consensus of NWP
indicates reasonable confidence in the forecast west to northwest track in the
next 72 hours.
Environmental wind shear remains favourable, with the 12 UTC CIMSS analysis of
3.3 m/s. Intensity is maintained at 55 knots for the next 6 hours, then
weakening as Errol begins to interact with land. Errol may still be at category
2 intensity as it approaches the eastern Indonesian islands although there is a
fair degree of uncertainty in the intensity forecast, particularly if the recent
weakening trend continues. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48
hours which will further weaken the system.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
快登陆印尼了，将逐渐减弱。 
