|
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1N 130.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT YET DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 021216Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
A SYMMETRIC LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH, GENERALLY, 15-
20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE CENTER AND 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY (ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE EVENT). RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU AND YAP INDICATE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS, ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS LOWER THAN ASCAT INDICATES, WITH SLP
NEAR 1005 MB. A 021056Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK, FRAGMENTED
LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING LOOSELY WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER.
THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR. |
组图打开中,请稍候......
|