2011年2月马达加斯加附近13S.BINGIZA

北落师门

30# li0627


同为TC系统，很有趣，根据地域不同有不同称谓，西北太过去到8级或以上统称台风，现在分为LPA，TD，TS，STS，TY，ITY，VITY。而NOAA的AOR内分为DB，TD，TS，Hurricane，Major Hurricane。对Hurricane还进行美式CAT分级。而北印，IMD分为LPA，D，DD，CS，SCS，VSCS，Super CS。而90E-120W的南半球分为LPA，TL/ML，TC，对TC进行澳式CAT分级。西南印度洋分为LPA，DB，TD，MTS，STS，TC，ITC，VITC。而2003年以前不用MTS和STS，用MTD和STD。

li0627

31# 北落师门


没错，分类很多，不过基本上我们也知道实际的大致门槛，就是34kt和64kt。有时候多算上48kt，大致就是TD/TS、TS/STS、STS/TY之间的门限。
      
我习惯上喜欢用旋风（CY）来俗称北印度洋和南半球达到63kt以上的TC系统，毕竟“旋风”两个字比“热带气旋”四个字要少{:soso_e120:} 。而且，这样也好和台风（TY）和飓风（HU）对应。
      
当然，如果涉及到学术探讨的话，专用词汇是不能用俗称来替代的，那样不规范也不严谨。不过对于业余的气象论坛来说，大家要怎么用都随便吧，都看得懂就行。泡网络论坛的人基本上都是凭爱好和热情，都是用自己的业余时间，没必要如正规学习/工作那么严肃，算是消遣排遣身心就行了。

北落师门

其实WMO对RSMC和TCWC设置也是有缺陷的，其中北印度洋0-5N，还有120W以东和南大西洋TC是没气象部门可托管。东南太平洋和南大西洋还有TCP/NHC发预警，但TCP/NHC无命名权，无托管权，无制做年报权，WMO也对这些洋区的TC不予承认。而造成SCS，Angi到了5N以北才有名，只能把5N以后路径写入IMD年报，造成最低纬TC被迫让给了0126。因为北印0-5N区域是没气象部门可管。

雪中红

插下话，学术探讨看面向人群，如果面向国内，是可以用俗称的，只是目前一般少用。

比如，食品防腐剂 - 苯甲酸钠=中国俗称：安息香酸钠，是允许的，而且安息香更能传递中国应用历史信息，但是目前已经少用，甚至大多数公众不知苯甲酸就是安息香酸，更不知安息香为何物。

所以中国名称在传承信息上还是有存在的必要性，标准化名称和俗称最好能两者兼顾。

PS.
门板观点拓展很快{:soso_e179:}

li0627

06UTC，100kt！

北落师门

WTIO22 FMEE 130626
PAN PAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 13/02/2011
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/05 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY    13/02/2011 AT 0600 UTC.
PHENOMENON:        INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (BINGIZA) 953 HPA
POSITION:          WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7S / 52.6E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT:          WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 200 NM FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 300 TO
400
NM FROM THE CENTER WITHIN SEVERAL PERIPHERAL BAND S.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 55 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 85 NM
RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 110
NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUST UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2011/02/13 AT 18 UTC:
16.3S / 51.4E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2011/02/14 AT 06 UTC:
16.4S / 49.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE BINGIZA IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVILY ACCELERATING
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR.=

还是90KT。

北落师门

WTIO30 FMEE 130646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 17/5/20102011
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5  (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/13 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7S / 52.6E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 5.0/5.5 /D  1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 24 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT       NE: 203   SE: 203   SO: 203   NO: 203
34 KT       NE: 157   SE: 157   SO: 157   NO: 157
48 KT       NE: 101   SE: 101   SO: 101   NO: 101
64 KT       NE: 055   SE: 055   SO: 055   NO: 055
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 740 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/13 18 UTC: 16.3S/51.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2011/02/14 06 UTC: 16.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
36H: 2011/02/14 18 UTC: 16.4S/47.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2011/02/15 06 UTC: 17.4S/46.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2011/02/15 18 UTC: 18.3S/45.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND.
72H: 2011/02/16 06 UTC: 19.2S/44.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H:  17/02/2011 06 UTC: 20.1S/43.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
120H: 18/02/2011 06 UTC: 21.6S/44.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0- AND CI=5.5
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SLOWLY , WAVING ALONG A GLOBALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AXIS BUT IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVILY ACCELERATING
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ERODATED EYE IN ITS NORTHERN PART AND
INFRARED PATTERN IS NOT SO GOOD WITHIN LAST NIGHT.
37GHZ MICROWAVE SSMIS F17 130124Z AND F16 130239S REVEALED DEPHASED
LOW
AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS BUT SEEM TO BE DUBIOUS THANKS TO
WINDSAT 130155Z.
THIS WORST SIGNATURE IS PROBABLY LINKED TO A LESS FAVOURABLE
EQUATORWARD
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE RELIEF OF MADAGASCAR.
SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO NOT INTENSIFY SO HIGH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
BEFORE
ITS LANDFALL
OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR , STILL EXPECTED MONDAY BETWEEN
MASOALA PENINSULA AND SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND, LIKELY NEAR ANTANAMBE.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY DECAY INLAND AS IT MOVES WESTWARDS. HOWEVER
AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST, SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON NWP FIELDS IS FAVOURABLE
FOR
A RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST (STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST). THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS
RECURVATURE. IF IT MO
VES OVER THE MOZAMBIC CHANNEL, BINGIZA HAS TH POTENTIAL TO
REINTENSIFY
BEFORE MOVES BACK OVER LAND BUT IF IT REMAINS INLAND THE SYSTEM COULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE ...
BAFORE THAT TIME THE THREAT IS GETTING STRONGER FOR THE EASTERN COAST
OF
MADAGASCAR AND IT BECOMES VERY IMPORTANT FOR UNHABITANTS OF THIS
REGION
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.=

将登陆Madagascar，预测在Mozambique Channel再度加强。

raymond765

33# 北落师门

不過東南太的TC 是從沒有觀察到的...因為120W 以東水溫已較低....
該處有TC 比地中海更難吧{:soso_e100:}

yulouex

MF认为登陆马达加斯加然后减弱？

北落师门

38# raymond765


是的，海温太低，风切很大，但2009年出现过DB。当时TCP/NHC发过预警。在东南太111W附近。