2011年1月南印度洋10S.BIANCA

北落师门

IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Friday 21 January 2011

valid until the end of Monday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is currently located from northern Kimberley to the southern
Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to move north over the weekend.  A weak
tropical low, 1002 hPa is located over land near Kununurra.
The low is expected to move slowly north and may intensify further.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the region on:
Saturday:   Low,
Sunday  :   Low,
Monday  :   Moderate.

北落师门

IDD20040
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds, Heavy Rainfall, Abnormally High Tides and Large Waves
for people in the Darwin-Daly District
Issued at 10:41 am CST on Saturday 22 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: A TROPICAL LOW 1003 hPa is located over land near the
coast. At 9:30 am CST it was near latitude 14.9S, longitude 129.1E, about 90
kilometres south southwest of Port Keats, moving east northeast at 6 kilometres
per hour. The low is expected to remain near the coast but may intensify if it
moves over water.

Damaging wind gusts up to 90 km/h are expected with thunderstorms in the
western Darwin-Daly District during today and Sunday.
Large waves and abnormally high tides are expected to develop along the coast
between Cape Fourcroy and the Western Australian border during today and Sunday.
Areas of heavy rain over the Darwin-Daly District may cause localised flooding
and significant stream rises during today and Sunday.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure
loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally
high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Saturday 22 January.

北落师门

BOM认为系统可能进入Joseph Bonaparte Gulf并在那里获得命名。

北落师门

A monsoon trough extends from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Vince across to the north
Kimberley. At midday WST Saturday, a low was located near the coast on the
Northern Territory/Western Australia border and was slow moving. The low is
forecast to move to the west and lie over the north Kimberley on Sunday. On
Monday the system should move towards the southwest and cross 125E during the
day but is expected to remain over land. On Tuesday the low is likely to move
off the northwest Kimberley coast and develop.

Likelihood of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Sunday     :Very Low
Monday     : Low
Tuesday    :Moderate

北落师门

IDD20110
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

##
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For waters from Kuri Bay to Cape Fourcroy
Issued at 11:08 am CST on Sunday 23 January 2011

Synoptic Situation
At 9:30 am CST [8:00 AM WST] a Tropical Low was located within 30 nautical
miles of 14.3 S 128.8 E about 40 nautical miles west of Port Keats and 80
nautical miles north northeast of Wyndham with central pressure 1001
hectopascals moving north at 3 knots.

The low is expected to move towards the west or northwest and may move over the
northern Kimberley tomorrow. The low may intensify if it takes a more northerly
track and remains over water.

Centre forecast to be within 90 nautical miles of 13.8 S 127.3 E about 135
nautical miles west northwest of Port Keats at 9:30 am CST Monday [8:00 am WST
Monday].

Strong Wind Warning
Kuri Bay to Cape Fourcroy....
Within 60 nautical miles of centre...
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 25/33 knots in the next 18 to 24
hours. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas rising to 3 metres on a 2 metre
swell.

Elsewhere...
Southwest to northwest winds 20/30 knots. Scattered squalls to 50 knots. Seas
rising to 3 metres on a 2 metre swell.

These conditions should persist for about another 36 to 48 hours.

Please be aware
Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

li0627

注意EC的预测，将有三旋风并存，以目前这个系统未来为最强
     
PS.刚才搞错，09P是珊瑚海的那个系统

北落师门

IDD20040
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds, Heavy Rainfall, Abnormally High Tides and Large Waves
for people in the western Darwin-Daly District
Issued at 4:44 pm CST on Sunday 23 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: A TROPICAL LOW 998 hPa is located in the Joseph Bonaparte
Gulf. At 3:30 pm CST it was near latitude 14.3S, longitude 129.2E, about 35
kilometres west southwest of Port Keats, near stationary. The low is expected
to move towards the west or northwest and is likely to move over the northern
Kimberley tomorrow.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h are expected with thunderstorms in the
western Darwin-Daly District during Sunday and early Monday. Wind gusts easing
as the low moves away later on Monday.
Large waves and abnormally high tides are expected along the coast between Cape
Fourcroy and the Western Australian border during Sunday and early Monday.
Areas of heavy rain over the western Darwin-Daly District may cause localised
flooding and significant stream rises during Sunday and Monday.

The Northern Territory Emergency Service advises that people should secure
loose outside objects and seek shelter when the conditions deteriorate. Driving
conditions may be hazardous - avoid flooded roads and watercourses. Abnormally
high tides could cause minor flooding at the coast.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Sunday 23 January.

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0135 UTC 24/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.7S
Longitude: 127.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]
Storm Depth: NA
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1200: 15.2S 125.7E:     060 [110]:  020  [035]: 1000
+24: 25/0000: 16.2S 124.1E:     090 [165]:  025  [045]: 1000
+36: 25/1200: 17.3S 122.1E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  996
+48: 26/0000: 18.4S 119.7E:     150 [280]:  040  [075]:  994
+60: 26/1200: 19.4S 117.1E:     180 [335]:  050  [095]:  988
+72: 27/0000: 20.3S 114.6E:     210 [390]:  060  [110]:  980
REMARKS:
If the system was over water a T1.0  could be maintained [previously assigned
while over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf].  24 hour pressure falls in the vicinity
of the low are of the order 1.5-1.0 hPa. Wind speeds over land are low. The
highest wind speeds evident are at Troughton Island where 10-min winds are
reaching 25 knots at times.

Vertical shear has been slowly easing with the CIMSS analysis now showing
slightly less than 20 knots across the LLCC with stronger shear to the north.
Shear is likely to further reduce and by Wednesday nly moderate shear is
expected. By then the dry air that has been evident over the last couple of days
should no longer be an impediment and with significant ocean heat content off
the Pilbara coast the system is expected to develop at close to the
climatological rate during Wednesday and into Thursday.

The system is expected to be steered steadily southwest by a strong mid-level
ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will weaken the ridge and the
system will take a more southwards track.  


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
上望60KT。

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0733 UTC 24/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 126.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [280 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: NA
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/1800: 15.1S 124.9E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  995
+24: 25/0600: 16.2S 123.1E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  992
+36: 25/1800: 17.3S 120.8E:     120 [225]:  040  [075]:  990
+48: 26/0600: 18.5S 118.1E:     155 [285]:  050  [095]:  984
+60: 26/1800: 19.3S 115.7E:     200 [375]:  060  [110]:  975
+72: 27/0600: 20.3S 113.1E:     250 [465]:  070  [130]:  968
REMARKS:

Despite still being overland the system is showing improved organisation. 24
hour pressure falls in the vicinity of the low are of the order 3hPa. Wind
speeds over land are around 15 knots. Troughton Isalnd is recording 25 to 30
knots. The system has moved steadily westwards during the day and the warning
policy has been modified to reflect the risk that the system may go over water
earlier than the unshifted model consensus would indicate.

Vertical shear has continued to ease with the CIMSS analysis now showing less
than 20 knots across the LLCC. Shear is likely to further reduce and by
Wednesday only moderate shear is expected. The dry air that has been evident
over the last couple of days no longer appears to be having an influence and
with significant ocean heat content off the Pilbara coast the system is expected
to develop at close to the climatological rate during Wednesday and into
Thursday.

The system is expected to be steered steadily southwest by a strong mid-level
ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will weaken the ridge and the
system will take a more southwards track.  


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
有些北移，上望70KT。

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1310 UTC 24/01/2011
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 126.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [253 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: NA
Dvorak Intensity Code: NA
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
Storm Depth: NA
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0000: 15.5S 124.9E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  995
+24: 25/1200: 16.3S 123.3E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  990
+36: 26/0000: 17.4S 120.9E:     120 [225]:  045  [085]:  988
+48: 26/1200: 18.4S 118.3E:     155 [285]:  055  [100]:  980
+60: 27/0000: 19.1S 115.8E:     200 [375]:  070  [130]:  967
+72: 27/1200: 20.1S 113.1E:     250 [465]:  070  [130]:  967
REMARKS:
The LLCC was located using surface observations and the Wyndham radar. Despite
still being overland the system is showing improved organisation. 24 hour
pressure falls to the southwest of the low are between 3 and 4 hPa. Wind speeds
over land are around 15 knots. Troughton Island winds to 10 UTC were 20 to 30
knots. The system has tracked towards the west southwest in the last 6 hours and
there still remains a chance that the low will move over open waters overnight
and develop into a tropical cyclone by late Tuesday. If the low remains over
land during the next 6 to 12 hours it is unlikely to develop into a tropical
cyclone until Wednesday.

Vertical shear has continued to ease with the 12 UTC CIMSS analysis now showing
E'ly shear between 10 and 20 knots across the LLCC. With significant ocean heat
content off the Pilbara coast the system is expected to develop at close to the
climatological rate during Wednesday and into Thursday before weakening over
cooler SSTs and increasing shear from Friday.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a
strong mid-level ridge until Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the
system being steered towards the south.  


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
上望70KT。