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[南半球] 2011年1月西南太热带风暴05P.VANIA

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发表于 2011-1-6 10:44 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 05/2324 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 176.5E
AT 052100UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, LLCC REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
MORE LOW LEVEL. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER DIFLLUENT
REGION.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVES IT
WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
gms_vis.gif
 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-7 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 06/2257 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.1S 174.8E
AT 062100UTC AND REMAINS SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SECTOR FROM N THROUGH E OF
THE CENTRE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE SLOWLY MOVING IT
WESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48  HOURS IS MODERATE.
发表于 2011-1-7 14:56 | 显示全部楼层
93P
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-7 21:57 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 07/0845 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTRE [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.8S 174.9E
AT 070600UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRE. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 48  HOURS IS MODERATE.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-7 21:58 | 显示全部楼层
Marine Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 12:28am on Saturday the 8th of January 2011

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR  YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
WATERS, SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU, THE VATU-I-RA PASSAGE AND NORTHERN VANUA
LEVU WATERS.

Situation:
A trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain remains slow
moving over the Fiji group.

Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
For Yasawa, Mamanuca, Northern Vanua Levu and South-west Viti Levu
waters and Vatu-i-Ra passage:

Northerly winds 20 to 25 knots and upto 30 knots at times.
Rough to very rough seas.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms.


Further outlook:  Northerly winds 25 knots.

For the rest of Fiji Waters:
North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, gusting to 25 knots at
times.
Moderate to rough seas.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms.

Further outlook:  Northerly winds 15 to 20 knots.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-7 22:06 | 显示全部楼层
FMS对系统看好,认为系统已出现加强迹象,并有望达到命名强度。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-8 15:31 | 显示全部楼层
Vanuatu Group General Situation
A tropical low (1003hPa) east of the northern Vanuatu extends a trough south southeast and west southwest over Vanuatu group stretching to another low pressure northwest of New Caledonia.
Forecast Summary
Rain and thunder over the northern and central islands, with possible isolated heavy falls. Elsewhere, cloudy periods with few showers. Light to moderate west, northwest and northeast winds persist throughout.

VMS升TL了。
发表于 2011-1-9 19:44 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 09/0838 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.0S 170.0E AT
090600UTC. MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS WITH
DEEP CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST TO EAST OF CENTRE.   SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.


FMS升TD了。
发表于 2011-1-10 10:56 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 10/0203 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 997HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.1S
169.8E AT 100000 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

TD03F LIES ALONG A MONSSONAL TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF A 250 HPA
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED ITS ORGANISATION. LLCC REMAINS OBSUCRED. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS [EC/GFS/NOGAPS/UK] HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND
SLIGHTLY MOVING IT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
0800UTC.
发表于 2011-1-10 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
GALE WARNING 002 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/0149 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 169.8E AT 100000UTC AND
SLOW MOVING.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 250 TO 350 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE
CENTRE IN SECTOR NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTHEAST. WITHIN 180 TO 460
NAUTICAL MILES IN SECTOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, CLOCKWISE 30 TO 35 KNOTS
DEVELOPING NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 001.
FMS发GW了,有命名的机会。
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