中太平洋01C—OMEKA

北落师门

TXPN41 PHFO 201213 CCA
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1212 UTC MON DEC 20 2010

A. Tropical storm 01C (omeka).

B. 20/1130Z.

C. 21.1°N.

D. 177.2°W.

E. Goes-11.

F. T/2.5/3.0/w0.5/24 hrs.

G. IR/VIS.

H. Remarks: Center remains beneath W edge of dense overcast. system still being sheared and weakened over past 24 hrs. Log10 wrap of .4 still yields DT of 2.5 and both Pat and MET agree. FT based on DT.

I. Addl positions none.

$$



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CPHC分析

li0627

TS OMEKA

北落师门

WTPA21 PHFO 200812
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012010
0831 UTC MON DEC 20 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 178.2W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 178.2W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 178.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 176.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.9N 175.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.7N 174.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 33.4N 174.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 178.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

北落师门

JMA的决定让1015眼看就在眼前又流失了，让艾利再度难产。

北落师门

CPHC分析出最高是FT3.5，德法的运用对这类斜压能较强的系统需修正，CPHC认为CP012010源于1个脱离锋面的温带气旋在温暖洋面转为暖心而转化为TC。

6118第2室户台风

WTPA41 PHFO 201455
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012010
500 AM HST MON DEC 20 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL STORM OMEKA UNDER A SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE CENTER PEAKING OUT FROM
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE WESTERLY
SHEAR IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF OMEKA NEAR 28N
173W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS MIDWAY BETWEEN A CLOSE GROUP OF PGTW
AND HFO FIXES. THE 45 KNOT INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES OF 3.0
FROM BOTH PGTW AND HFO. BOTH PGTW AND HFO INDICATE A WEAKENING
OMEKA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH
FORECAST POSITIONS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOSELY PACKED GFDL...
HWF...AND GFS MODELS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THERE IS A WIDE DIVERGENCE
OF GUIDANCE. THE 36 AND 48 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS ARE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND ARE CLOSE TO HWF AND BAMM. THE FORECAST TRACK
PLACES OMEKA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL EAST OF MIDWAY ISLAND IN
ABOUT 30 HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT SHEAR WILL EVENTUALLY CAUSE THE DEMISE OF OMEKA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT...JUDGING BY THE WARMER
CLOUD TOPS IN THE LAST TWO GOES11 INFRARED IMAGES...OMEKA MAY
ALREADY BE ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE IN INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/1500Z 21.6N 176.8W    45 KT
12HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N 175.4W    40 KT
24HR VT     21/1200Z 26.7N 174.1W    35 KT
36HR VT     22/0000Z 30.2N 172.7W    30 KT
48HR VT     22/1200Z 34.1N 168.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG


CP012010高低层分离。

6118第2室户台风

WTPA21 PHFO 201450
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012010
1500 UTC MON DEC 20 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 176.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 176.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 177.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.5N 175.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  35NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 26.7N 174.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.2N 172.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.1N 168.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 176.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

li0627

裸奔中，即将完蛋——35kts
   
下来的三个月，不要再让我听到JMA的名字。有眼时候的巅峰，98C成为弃儿

北落师门

WTPA41 PHFO 210243
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012010
500 PM HST MON DEC 20 2010

A COUPLE OF CBS MANAGED TO POP UP NEAR THE CENTER OF OMEKA BETWEEN
NOON AND 2PM. THESE CBS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED AND NOW MOVED NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NO CHANGES TO SAB AND HFO
DVORAK FIXES OF 2.0 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY. JTWC DVORAK FIX WAS
LOWERED TO 1.5 BASED ON SUBTROPICAL TECHNIQUE. ASCAT PASS INDICATED
A SMALL AREA OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF OMEKA WHILE
RAMMB/CIRA MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES
MAX WINDS AT 32 KT IN THE SAME AREA. INITIAL INTENSITY IS WEIGHTED
TOWARD HFO FIX AND ASCAT WINDS AND HELD AT 35 KT. INITIAL POSITION
IS VERY CLOSE TO POSITION ESTIMATES FROM ALL FIX AGENCIES.

FORECAST ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT OMEKA REMAINS TROPICAL OR IS
TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL.  RAMMB/CIRA T ANOMALY CROSS SECTION
FROM 16 UTC INDICATED A WARM CORE SYSTEM.  WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO GO AGAINST THIS...EVEN 12 PLUS HOURS LATER...WILL
MAINTAIN THE WEAKENING TREND DUE TO SHEAR AND LOWERING SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK WHILE KEEPING OMEKA AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH
24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING IT INTO A REMNANT LOW.

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST
GIVEN THE 2PM POSITION WAS FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS TRACK
TAKES OMEKA JUST EAST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND AT THE CLOSEST POINT OF
BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FORECAST WEAKENING...MAINTAIN
THE EARLIER DECISION NOT TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE NW HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  IN THE ABSENCE OF THE CB
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER...A SHEAR PATTERN BASED ON THE LAST COUPLE
OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTS OMEKA MIGHT ALREADY BE BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      21/0300Z 24.6N 174.3W    35 KT
12HR VT     21/1200Z 27.1N 173.3W    30 KT
24HR VT     22/0000Z 30.2N 172.1W    30 KT
36HR VT     22/1200Z 33.7N 170.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER TANABE

北落师门

WTPA21 PHFO 210230
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM OMEKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012010
0300 UTC TUE DEC 21 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 174.3W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  45SE  15SW  10NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 15NE  45SE  15SW  15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 174.3W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 174.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.1N 173.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.2N 172.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.7N 170.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 174.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER TANABE