中太平洋01C—OMEKA

北落师门

NHC发现日界线24N附近出现了1强LPA，正在原地停滞，以后会转东北移动并入西风。

北落师门

A subtropical low located near the international dateline about 340 miles south southwest of Midway atoll is moving toward the south southwest at about 10 mph. A large area of showers and thunderstorms continues to increase in coverage and intensity near the center of this system. Winds of gale force are located far north of the center of this low. There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For additional information on this low, see the high seas forecast issued for the north Pacific ocean by the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu, Hawaii under AWIPS header hsfnp, or WMO header fzpn40 PHFO.

北落师门

LOW 1000 HPA AT 22N 180E SW SLOWLY.

li0627

相当NICE的TD

li0627

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 179.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CENTRAL CONVECTION ALOFT, HOWEVER FURTHER ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SUBTROPICAL. A RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION AND
200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICT A COLD-CORE CUT OFF LOW ALOFT WITH A COLD-
CORE ANOMALY EXTENDING UP TO 10 KM. THE CIMMS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER PRODUCT SHOWS COLD, DRY, AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
BASED ON THE ABOVE ASSESSMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
   
1906UTC

li0627

存几张图
   
由于已经闯入西太，肯定没希望以01C的身份迫使JMA给出1015号TS。JMA现在明显多一事不如少一事，准备以EX LOW蒙混过关

adrianou0328

TXPN27 KNES 190908
SIMWIR

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98C)

B.  19/0830Z

C.  21.4N

D.  179.5E

E.  ONE/MTSAT

F.  T4.0/4.0/D1.0/12HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON DG SURROUDING GRAY SHADE(MG NOT WIDE ENOUGH)
WITH DG EYE . PT=4.0.  FT BASED ON PT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...SCHWARTZ

SSD認為有TY的強度了

li0627

就算真TY又能怎么样呢？这个地方，前不着CPHC，后不着JMA，只有寂寞地生灭……

li0627

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA
AT 21.2N 179.3E MIDWAYS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
   
JMA升TD，发W。
   
最好的情况是：
   
18UTC，JMA：【GW】TD

00UTC，JMA：【GW】TS AERE
   
问题是：可能么？
   
可怜被埋没的98C……个人根据目前的眼的状态，给55kt（10min）

北落师门

JMA还是想给CPHC命名。