南海90W——TCFA

北落师门

2010年11月西太平洋热带扰动90W



世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：免责声明


  报告人：北落师门
所属团队：21cma
扰动编号：90W
编号时间： 02 NOV 2010 0600Z
初始强度：15kts.1010mb
扰动定位：14.5N.114.6E（查看位置：TC Google Map）
存在区域：南海
1、系统结构分析：风场扫描低层环流结构差；多频微波结构較差；云图螺旋性一般
  2、系统环境分析：辐合状态一般；辐散状态一般；系统所处垂直风切微弱；系统所处海表温度 29Ｃ
3、系统现状其他分析： 無
数值预报：部分數值支持
个人评估：發展機會中等
  XX

备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---


1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心（JTWC），采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见： 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有，未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。

北落师门

从云图看系统出现发展迹象，由于未来有波明显西风活动，南高有望南落，对系统发展有利，南海中部表层海温仍很高，在28-30度。

eoj329

現時南海中部15N附近高空有一個反氣旋式的環場,以高空層面來說輻散狀態應算良好的.

Murilo

現時南海中部15N附近高空有一個反氣旋式的環場,以高空層面來說輻散狀態應算良好的.
eoj329 发表于 2010-11-2 19:39

如图：南海中部一带的反气旋式流场，但中心稍有偏南
90W的辐合也是不错的，南海的水温应该还是能够支持
现在关键是副高的位置的引导

北落师门

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 13N 112E WEST SLOWLY.

北落师门

越南的雷达观测到系统正在组建的气旋性环流。越南对南部发了预警。

开尔文

TCFA
      
WTPN22 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 110.7E TO 12.8N 108.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 032030Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
110.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.4E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS CONSOLIDATING WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 031643Z TRMM
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
ASSESSED AS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER, SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE 19-23 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION) AND STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE (UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION).
THE LLCC IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF
VIETNAM. IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE, THERE IS A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE SLOW WESTWARD TRACK,
RECENT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 042100Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E.//
NNNN

li0627

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 12.3N 110.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
     
JMA已经内部编号。

li0627

广东省台也自行编号：
     

南海南部的热带扰动已经发展成热带低压，4日8时其中心位于北纬12.5度，东经110.5度，中心附近最大风力7级（15米/秒）。
   
预计，该热带低压将以每小时4公里左右的速度向北北西方向移动，逐渐靠近越南东部沿海，对我省陆地无影响。

北落师门

JMA数值不看好，编国际可能性几乎为0。