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[北印度洋] 气旋风暴05B'JAL'——99W发展而来的跨境TC

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-8 22:12 | 显示全部楼层
系统已到到印度西部的西高止山附近,即将进入阿拉伯海,有望在南高带来的良好辐散的作用下,在阿拉伯海发展加强。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-9 13:24 | 显示全部楼层
从IMD的雷达和地面实测观测,BOB05/2010/已于11月9日00UTC前后进入阿拉伯海东部,雷达观测出现加强的迹象。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-9 15:42 | 显示全部楼层
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI   DATED:   09-11-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)





A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD.



BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -

BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER SE BAY ADJ EC BAY ANDAMAN SEA (.) SCT LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD ISOL WK TO MOD CONVTN OVER WC BAY S BAY SOUTH OFL AT 10.0N (.)



ARABIAN SEA: -

BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER ARSEA BET LAT8.0 N TO 10.5N LONG 62.0E TO 75.0E (.) SCT LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD ISOL WK TO MOD CONVTN OVER REST E ARSEA (.)





THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 21.0°N OVER THE REGION.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-9 15:43 | 显示全部楼层
IMD认为出海,定为LPA,分析出FT1.0。
发表于 2010-11-9 16:56 | 显示全部楼层
阿拉伯海SST没问题,前方风切也趋于减弱

未来副高西进将会带来良好高空辐散流出,总的发展条件是不错的

但发展空间可能不够了,EC也调弱预期强度

预计48H后随着副高的东退将会转向登陆中东地区

一个跨越三片海域的TC不知能否最终完美谢幕{:soso_e144:}
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-11-10 08:22 | 显示全部楼层
系統出現一度的對流增強,但目前已經近岸,低層又缺乏西南水汽的供應,儘管反氣旋流場提供了良好的流出通道
看來05B"JAL"的跨洋神話就將終結{:soso__1643500169792842330_3:}
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-11 11:25 | 显示全部楼层
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI   DATED:   10-11-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)



SALIENT FEATURES:

VORTEX OVER ARSEA CENTERED WITHIN A HALF DEGREE OF LAT 20.5N/70.0E (.) INTENSITY T1.0 (.) ASSTD BKN INT CONVTN OVER ARSEA NORTH OF LAT 19.0N EAST OF LONG 67.5E AND BET LAT 17.0N TO 19.0N LONG 65.5E TO 68.5E GULF OF CAMBAY S GUJ (.)







BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: -



BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL SOUTH OF LATITUDE 11.0N EAST OF LONGITUDE 84.5E ANDAMAN SEA SOUTH OF LATITUDE 13.0N SOUTH TENASSERIM COT (.) SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL WEST OF LONGITUDE 84.0E (.)

ARABIAN SEA: -



BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER REST EAST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.0N TO 15.0N LONGITUDE 70.5E TO 74.0E SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA SOUTH OF LATITUDE 7.0N EAST OF LONGITUDE 71.5E (.)





THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 20.0°N OVER THE REGION.
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