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发表于 2010-11-4 15:34
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-11-2010
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 04 NOVEMBER, 2010 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 04 NOVEMBER, 2010 (.)
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 4TH NOVEMBER 2010 NEAR LAT. 8.00N AND LONG. 92.00E ABOUT 1150 KM EAST OF BATTICALOA (43436), 1400 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279) AND 1450 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATANAM (43149).
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA.
ANIMATION OF PAST 24HRS INSAT IMAGERIES INDICATES THAT THE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM MERGED GRADUALLY ALONGWITH INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 05.0º N AND 13.5ºN AND EAST OF LONGITUDE 84.0ºE.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -700C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST DURING NEXT 72 HOURS.
rEMARKS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE TO HIGH 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORWARD SECTOR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (300-320 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IS MORE THAN 100 KJ/CM2, WHICH IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS THAN 100 KJ/CM2 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 130N AT 200 HPA LEVEL. |
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