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[北印度洋] 气旋风暴05B'JAL'——99W发展而来的跨境TC

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发表于 2010-11-4 10:32 | 显示全部楼层
不对哦,JTWC从2日00UTC开始就给25kt了,结果都没升格,TCFA到昨晚才发出……
   
难道过境的热带扰动,必须到TS,才给予升格?

Synoptic Time
Latitude
Longitude
Intensity
201011040000
8.6
91.3
30
201011031800
8.4
92.3
30
201011031200
8
92.7
25
201011030600
8.3
94.1
25
201011030000
8.4
95.1
25
201011021800
8.4
95.9
25
201011021200
8.7
97
25
201011020600
8.2
98.6
25
201011020000
8.1
98.5
25
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-4 11:11 | 显示全部楼层
美军的制度西北太是25KT编TC号,南半球和北印度洋是35KT编TC号,所以25-30KT的TD,美军不编TC号。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-4 12:22 | 显示全部楼层
BOB 05/2010/01                                                      Dated: 04.10. 2010

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST



                             Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal



          Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.00N and long. 92.00E about about 1150 km east of Batticaloa, 1400 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1450 km southeast of Visakhapatanam.it would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 72 hours.

                    Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls ( ≥ 25 cm) over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.

          Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.



          Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of 4th November.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-4 12:23 | 显示全部楼层
IMD对BOB05/2010/看好。预测至少变CS。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-4 15:31 | 显示全部楼层
BOB 05/2010/02                                                      Dated: 04.11. 2010

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST



                   Sub: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Pre-cyclone Watch



          The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.50N and long. 91.00E about about 1050 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 1300 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1350 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7th November 2010 evening/night.



          Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours and decrease thereafter.



          Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours.. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands.



          Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of 4th November.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-4 15:34 | 显示全部楼层
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK







DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI         04-11-2010

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 04 NOVEMBER, 2010  BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 04 NOVEMBER, 2010 (.)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 4TH NOVEMBER 2010 NEAR LAT. 8.00N AND LONG. 92.00E ABOUT 1150 KM EAST OF BATTICALOA (43436), 1400 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279) AND 1450 KM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATANAM (43149).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.  THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1002 HPA.

ANIMATION OF PAST 24HRS INSAT IMAGERIES INDICATES THAT THE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM MERGED GRADUALLY ALONGWITH INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER INDICATES IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 05.0º N AND 13.5ºN AND EAST OF LONGITUDE 84.0ºE.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -700C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST DURING NEXT 72 HOURS.

rEMARKS

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS MODERATE TO HIGH 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORWARD SECTOR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (300-320 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL IS MORE THAN 100 KJ/CM2, WHICH IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS THAN 100 KJ/CM2 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 130N AT 200 HPA LEVEL.
发表于 2010-11-4 17:56 | 显示全部楼层
99W低层辐合很强烈,尽管高层没有完整的反气旋流场提供强烈的流出,但受惠于南落南高西侧偏北气流仍旧有较佳的表现
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-11-5 07:46 | 显示全部楼层
升格为05B{:soso__3882764332779403750_4:} 上望一级旋风下限。
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-5 12:35 | 显示全部楼层
BOB 05/2010/06                                                                      Dated: 05.11. 2010

Time of issue: 0830 hours IST







                        Sub:  Deep Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Cyclone Alert for North

Tamil Nadu and South Andhra Pradesh Coasts







                                Yesterday’s depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and concentrated into deep depression and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today the 5th November 2010 near lat. 9.00N and long. 88.50E about 800 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1000 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1150 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by 7th November 2010 evening/night.



            Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from forenoon of 6th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7th November 2010.

            

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6th November 2010. Sea conditions will be very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.





*** Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of 5th November. ***
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-5 12:35 | 显示全部楼层
IMD分析出FT2.0,升DD了,认为至少加强为CS。
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