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[北印度洋] 气旋风暴05B'JAL'——99W发展而来的跨境TC

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发表于 2010-11-1 15:44 | 显示全部楼层
进入孟加拉湾发展后,美军如升格是升格05B还是18W(初始扰动是西太海域的)?
发表于 2010-11-1 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
108.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 104.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEGUN TO CROSS OVER THE
MALAY PENINSULA TOWARDS THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN. DESPITE A PARTIAL
010157Z ASCAT PASS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS STRENGTHENED TO NEAR 20 KNOTS, CONVECTION REMAINS MODERATELY
UNORGANIZED. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN APPROXIMATELY 03 MB OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG EASTERN MALAYSIA (WMKN AND WMKD) AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE IN
GENERAL LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND NOW
LAND, WILL LIKELY STALL CONSOLIDATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS TIME
IN PACIFIC WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE REASSESSED AFTER ENTERING INTO
THE BAY OF BENGAL AND TRANSFERRED TO THE ABIO10 BULLETIN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR AS IT CROSSES LAND INTO A BASIN WITH A
HIGHER WARNING THRESHOLD.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 15:51 | 显示全部楼层
美军会编北印号,IMD会给国际编号,JMA最多给个内部编号。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 16:02 | 显示全部楼层
Warning
"Tropical Depression in Gulf and cool over upper Thailand"
No. 4 Time Issued : November 01, 2010

        
At 10.00 a.m., the tropical depression in the lower Gulf of Thailand was centered about 270 km southeast of Songkhla or at Lat 6.5 oN, Long 103.0 oE, with sustained wind about 50 km/hr. It is now moving northwest at a speed of 15 km/hr. Tonight, this depression is expected to pass lower southern provinces: Pattani, Songkhla, Phatthalung, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Satun, Trang, Krabi, Phuket and Phang-nga. Widespread and torrential rain is likely much of the South from Surat Thani southward with wave height 3-5 meters in the Gulf. People in risky areas along hill slope near waterways and in lowlands should beware of severe weather and possible flash flood. The disaster areas include Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Krabi, Trang and Satun. Residents along eastern south-coast should beware of force wind and high surge inshore. All ships in the Gulf keep ashore over this period.
During 3-4 days, the ridge of intense high pressure from China still covers Thailand. Cool and cold weather with windy are likely in upper part of the country while minimum temperature in the upper North and Northeast reach 12-16 oC and on the mountaintops 6-12 oC.
This severe weather conditions will be issued and notified periodically.


The advisory is in effect for Thailand from 1 November 2010
Issued at 11.30 a.m.

Weather Forecast Bureau, Meteorological Department
Ministry of Information and Communication Technology
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 16:04 | 显示全部楼层
TMD预测系统今夜登陆暹罗南部,会带来强风,强降水。明天系统就进入安达曼海了,托管权也将交给IMD。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 20:17 | 显示全部楼层
Warning
"Tropical Depression in Gulf of Thailand"
No. 5 Time Issued : November 01, 2010

        
At 4.00 p.m., the tropical depression in the lower Gulf of Thailand was centered about 160 km east of Songkhla or at Lat 7.0 oN, Long 101.8 oE, with sustained wind about 50 km/hr. It is now moving northwest at a speed of 15 km/hr. This depression is expected to make landfall over southern provinces: Pattani, Songkhla and Nakhon Si Thammarat. It will then hit tonight provinces of Phatthalung, Satun, Trang, Krabi, Phuket and Phang-nga. Widespread and torrential rain is likely much of both eastern and western south-coast from Chumphon southward with wave 3-5 meters high.
People in risky areas along hill slope near waterways and in lowlands should beware of severe weather and possible flash flood. Residents along eastern south-coast should beware of force wind and high surge inshore. All ships in the Gulf keep ashore over this period.
During 3-4 days, the ridge of intense high pressure from China still covers Thailand. Cool and cold weather with windy are likely in upper part of the country while minimum temperature in the upper North and Northeast reaches 12-16 oC and on mountaintops 6-12 oC.
This severe weather conditions will be issued and notified periodically.


The advisory is in effect for Thailand from 1 November 2010
Issued at 4.30 p.m.

Weather Forecast Bureau, Meteorological Department
Ministry of Information and Communication Technology
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-2 11:29 | 显示全部楼层
Warning
"Tropical Depression in Gulf of Thailand"
No. 8 Time Issued : November 02, 2010

        
At 5.00 a.m. today, the tropical depression was centered over Trang, southern Thailand with sustained wind about 50 km/hr. It is now moving west at a speed of 15 km/hr to cover Krabi and Phuket and through the Andaman Sea this morning. Widespread and torrential rain is likely much of the south from Surath Thani southward with wave 3-5 meters high.
People in risky areas along hill slope near waterways and in lowlands should beware of severe weather and possible flash flood. Residents along eastern south-coast should beware of force wind and high surge inshore. All ships in the Gulf keep ashore over this period.
During 3-4 days, the ridge of intense high pressure from China still covers Thailand. Cool and cold weather with windy are likely in upper part of the country while minimum temperature in the upper North and Northeast reaches 12-16 oC and on mountaintops 6-12 oC.
This severe weather conditions will be issued and notified periodically.


The advisory is in effect for Thailand from 2 November 2010
Issued at 5.30 a.m.

Weather Forecast Bureau, Meteorological Department
Ministry of Information and Communication Technology
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-2 11:30 | 显示全部楼层
系统在上午移入安达曼海了,由IMD托管了。IMD仍未发报,系统是西北太送给北印度洋的礼物。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-2 14:39 | 显示全部楼层
由于今天凌晨系统过100E,故将此LPA归入北印度洋。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-2 14:40 | 显示全部楼层
Warning
"Tropical Depression in Gulf of Thailand"
No. 9 Time Issued : November 02, 2010

        At 10.00 a.m. today, the tropical depression was centered over Krabi, southern Thailand or at latitude 8.0 degree north, longitude 98.9 degree east with sustained wind about 50 km/hr. It is now moving west-northwest at a speed of 18 km/hr. This storm will move pass Phangnga and then move to the Andaman Sea. Widespread rains and heavy to very heavy rain are likely in the both South from Surat Thani southward with wave 3-5 meters high.
       People in risky areas along hill slope near waterways and in lowlands should beware of severe weather and possible flash flood. Residents along the coastal areas should beware of force wind and high surge inshore. All ships in the Gulf keep ashore during this period.

       The ridge of intense high pressure from China still covers Thailand. Cool and cold weather with windy are likely in upper part of the country while minimum temperature in the North and the upper Northeast reaches 14-15 oC and on mountaintops 8-14 oC.

       This severe weather conditions will be issued and notified periodically.

        

        

       The advisory is in effect for Thailand from 2 November 2010

        Issued at 11.00 a.m.
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