气旋风暴05B'JAL'——99W发展而来的跨境TC

北落师门

2010年10月西太平洋热带扰动99W



世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：免责声明


  报告人：北落师门
所属团队：21cma
扰动编号：99W
编号时间： 29 OCT 2010 0000Z
初始强度：15kts.1010mb
扰动定位：7.5N.112.8E（查看位置：TC Google Map）
存在区域：南海
1、系统结构分析：风场扫描低层环流结构差；多频微波结构較差；云图螺旋性一般
  2、系统环境分析：辐合状态一般；辐散状态一般；系统所处垂直风切微弱；系统所处海表温度 29Ｃ
3、系统现状其他分析： 無
数值预报：部分數值支持
个人评估：發展機會中等
  XX

备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---


1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心（JTWC），采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见： 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有，未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。

北落师门

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 110E WSW 10 KT.

开尔文

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 109E ALMOST STATIONARY.
   
比之前18Z的1006hpa减弱了。
   
EC也调弱，LPA到底。

sylar

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 108.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. A
300238Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MODERATE NORTH-TO-NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FLANKING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. WINDS AT THE CORE ARE LIGHTER
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN ALSO BE SPOTTED IN
MULTISPECTRAL ANIMATION, NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DEPICTED
IN ASCAT. OVERALL THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND SHOWS NO IMMINENT SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THE DISTURBANCE LIES WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN IS SUPPRESSING EXPANSION OF THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND HAS RESTRICTED OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

北落师门

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 05N 107E ALMOST STATIONARY.台风强度是以风速为标准的，不是气压。

北落师门

暹罗湾也可出现奇迹，8929上演了暹罗湾爆发，0126上演最低纬度生成的TC，系统如在100-105E才发展为TS，CMA就不会编号，而JMA仍会编国际号，这样国际编号的1016是CMA编号的1015。因为105E以西已出了CMA的AOR，5N地转偏心力不是问题，这大问题是狭小的海区。不过JMA对暹罗湾TC编国际号，要求一向严苛，没CI2.5是基本无法获得国际编号的，如能在100E以东编国际号，意味着系统西行登陆暹罗前，已过100E进入IMD辖区。

sylar

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N
108.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 108.9E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301808Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 301343Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AT THE CENTER, AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS DISORGANIZED DUE TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

北落师门

EC这报又调强了，可能是彻底调强的中间报。

北落师门

"Heavy Rain in South and Strong Wind-Wave in Gulf"
No. 18 Time Issued : October 31, 2010

        The ridge of intense high pressure from China still covers Thailand causing strong northeast monsoon prevailing over Thailand and the Gulf continuously. And during 1-3 November, 2010, an active low cell in the lower South China Sea will move to the Gulf and the Gulf and the lower South of Thailand. Torrential rain and heavy to very heavy falls are expected in the South and strong wind-wave in the Gulf, wave height about 2-4 meters.
       People in risky areas along hill slope near waterways and in lowlands should beware of severe weather and possible flash flood. The disaster areas include

       Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Krabi, Trang and Satun. All ships should proceed with caution, and small boats in the Gulf keep ashore, and people in the southern Thailand east coast should beware of force wind and high wave into the shore during the period.

       Generally cooler weather with windy and 1-3 oC drops are likely in upper Thailand by 2-3 days. Minimum temperature in the upper North and Northeast is about 12-16 oC and 6-12 oC on the mountains top.

       This severe weather conditions will be issued and notified periodically.


TMD发暴雨预警，定为LPA。

北落师门

TMD，MMD和越南雷达显示系统出现明显发展，气旋性环流初步建立，探空显示垂直风切快速减弱，系统有可能在南海西南部到暹罗湾发展为TC，大气环流和8929生成前环流较接近，8929的爆发当时没任何气象部门预测出。