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[南半球] 2010年10月南印度洋02S. ANGGREK

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 11:51 | 显示全部楼层
BOM对科科斯群岛和圣诞岛发布了预警,01U20102011将经过科科斯群岛附近洋面。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 11:57 | 显示全部楼层
See Weather Words or the Glossary to find out what the weather terms mean.

Check the latest weather warnings.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 11:52 am WST on Monday 1 November 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 11:00 am WST (9:30am Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 2,
was estimated to be
245 kilometres north northeast of Cocos Island and
moving south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify during Monday as it moves
southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Squalls on the islands will get gradually
stronger during the day with periods of gale force winds likely by nightfall.  

With the cyclone expected to curve around toward the west on Tuesday it is
likely that it will be close to Cocos for an extended period and so gales may
continue throughout Tuesday. If the cyclone passes close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE
wind gusts will occur and tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark with DAMAGING WAVES and flooding of low lying areas.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 11:00 am WST (9:30am Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 10.1 degrees South 97.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a YELLOW ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to take action and get ready to shelter from a
cyclone.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Monday 01 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 11:58 | 显示全部楼层
进入BOM辖区,01U20102011将颠峰过可可斯群岛附近洋面。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 15:19 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 01/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 97.5E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [160 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:  25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1800: 11.6S  97.7E:     080 [150]:  060  [110]:  982
+24: 02/0600: 12.1S  97.4E:     100 [185]:  070  [130]:  974
+36: 02/1800: 12.7S  96.7E:     130 [240]:  080  [150]:  966
+48: 03/0600: 13.2S  95.8E:     160 [295]:  070  [130]:  974
+60: 03/1800: 13.6S  94.8E:     190 [350]:  065  [120]:  978
+72: 04/0600: 13.9S  93.2E:     220 [405]:  055  [100]:  986
REMARKS:
The system was located using an SSMIS pass at 0135Z together with animated IR,
NIR and VIS imagery. The location of the centre is not too clear so the
uncertainty of the position has been increased to 60nm. Shear appears to be
decreasing and a curved band may be developing. Attempts to apply a curved band
pattern give a curvature between 0.5/0.8, resulting in a DT of 3.0. A shear
pattern in the VIS imagery yields a similar result, but a shear pattern doesn't
appear as applicable now. No recent SATCON is available.

The MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour trend of D-. Pattern matching indicates no
adjustment hence DT is 3.0 and MET/PAT are 3.5. The final wind intensity
estimate is assigned at 50 knots.

Shear over the system appears to be diminishing, and the upper flow is markedly
diffluent. Conditions are forecast to become more favourable during the
remainder of today with shear forecast to diminish further and an outflow
channel likely to become better established to the south.

Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP
and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity during Tuesday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds during Tuesday.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP
guidance do not weaken the system until later.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 01/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 15:20 | 显示全部楼层
期待01U20102011过90E,获得第2个名字,过90E达MTS以上级别机会有7成。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 20:55 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1250 UTC 01/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.9S
Longitude: 98.0E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [149 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:  25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 11.8S  98.2E:     075 [140]:  060  [110]:  980
+24: 02/1200: 12.6S  97.8E:     105 [195]:  070  [130]:  972
+36: 03/0000: 13.2S  96.8E:     135 [250]:  070  [130]:  972
+48: 03/1200: 13.7S  96.1E:     170 [315]:  065  [120]:  976
+60: 04/0000: 14.1S  94.9E:     215 [400]:  055  [100]:  984
+72: 04/1200: 14.6S  93.3E:     265 [490]:  045  [085]:  991
REMARKS:
The system was located using a series of microwave images together with animated
IR and VIS imagery. Even with good microwave passes the system is still
difficult to locate with a high degree of certainty. However the passes show a
reasonably weak system with a mostly exposed low level circulation. Deep
convection remains in the western quadrants and shows only some curvature. The
1130 UTC IR image shows a new CB blowup near the centre.

It is difficult to assign a pattern but if a shear pattern is applied over the
last few images a DT of 3.5 is obtained. The MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour trend
of D-. Pattern matching indicates no adjustment hence MET/PAT are 3.5. The final
wind intensity estimate is assigned at 50 knots. This is in good agreement with
SATCON and our T numbers agree well with ADT.

Conditions are forecast to become more favourable overnight with shear forecast
to diminish further and an outflow channel likely to become better established
to the south.

Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP
and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity during Tuesday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds during Tuesday.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP
guidance do not weaken the system until later.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 01/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 20:55 | 显示全部楼层
南半球TC多变,BOM1报1变。
发表于 2010-11-2 08:22 | 显示全部楼层
20101101.2330.gms6.x.vis2km.02SANGGREK.55kts-982mb-119S-978E.100pc.jpg
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-2 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0056 UTC 02/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 98.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [164 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:  25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1200: 12.9S  98.0E:     075 [140]:  055  [100]:  985
+24: 03/0000: 13.6S  97.3E:     105 [195]:  060  [110]:  982
+36: 03/1200: 14.3S  96.4E:     140 [255]:  055  [100]:  986
+48: 04/0000: 14.6S  95.2E:     170 [315]:  050  [095]:  989
+60: 04/1200: 14.9S  93.8E:     220 [405]:  045  [085]:  993
+72: 05/0000: 15.6S  92.2E:     265 [490]:  040  [075]:  996
REMARKS:
The system was located using microwave and IR imagery but remains difficult to
pinpoint with any degree of certainty, although it does appear that the system
is a little further south than overnight positions indicated. The system remains
under moderate shear, and does appear to have slightly weakened over the past 24
hours, possibly due to the fact that it is moving into an area of cooler sea
surface temperatures.

A shear pattern yields a DT of 3.5, while a slight weakening over the past 24
hours indicates a MET of 3.0. Overnight ASCAT pass shows only a weak system, and
microwave imagery also supports this. FT is assigned at 3.0, with CI remaining
at 3.5.

Conditions may become a little more favourable over the next 12-24 hours as
shear decreases, although cool SSTs could mitigate this. The system may
intensify a little in this time, but is not expected to reach hurricane
intensity.

The system is now located to the east of Cocos Islands. It is forecast to take a
more southwesterly track during Tuesday, but it is unlikely to pass close enough
to the islands to produce anything more than a period of gale force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP
guidance do not weaken the system until later.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 02/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-2 14:53 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0649 UTC 02/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.5S
Longitude: 98.1E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south [186 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:  25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1800: 13.2S  97.7E:     070 [130]:  050  [095]:  989
+24: 03/0600: 14.0S  96.8E:     090 [165]:  050  [095]:  989
+36: 03/1800: 14.7S  95.9E:     125 [230]:  050  [095]:  989
+48: 04/0600: 15.1S  94.5E:     160 [295]:  045  [085]:  993
+60: 04/1800: 15.8S  93.0E:     210 [390]:  040  [075]:  996
+72: 05/0600: 16.9S  91.3E:     250 [465]:  035  [065]:  999
REMARKS:
The system was located by IR and VIS imagery, but still remains difficult to
pinpoint with any degree of certainty. The shear affecting the system appears to
be decreasing, although some weakening that was apparent earlier today means it
has now been downgraded to Category 1 intensity.

A shear pattern is no longer applicable to the system. A curved band pattern
yields a DT of 3.0. The 24 hour trend for the system indicates a slight
strengthening, which yields a MET of 4.0, however it is debatable whether the 24
hour old FT of 3.5 is suitable. PAT is assigned as 3.5, and given the cloud
features are reasonably clear cut then FT=DT=3.0. As the FT has now been 3.0 for
6 hours, we have a CI of 3.0.

Conditions may become a little more favourable over the next 12-24 hours as the
shear remains low, although cool SSTs could mitigate this. The system may
intensify a little back to Category 2 intensity during this time.

The system is now located to the east southeast of Cocos Islands. It is forecast
to take a more southwesterly track during the remainder of Tuesday, but it is
unlikely to pass close enough to the islands to produce anything more than a
short period of gale force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system, with an increase in shear. Hence the system is expected
to weaken as it moves off to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent
with this.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 02/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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