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发表于 2010-11-2 11:17
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IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0056 UTC 02/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.1S
Longitude: 98.3E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [164 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/1200: 12.9S 98.0E: 075 [140]: 055 [100]: 985
+24: 03/0000: 13.6S 97.3E: 105 [195]: 060 [110]: 982
+36: 03/1200: 14.3S 96.4E: 140 [255]: 055 [100]: 986
+48: 04/0000: 14.6S 95.2E: 170 [315]: 050 [095]: 989
+60: 04/1200: 14.9S 93.8E: 220 [405]: 045 [085]: 993
+72: 05/0000: 15.6S 92.2E: 265 [490]: 040 [075]: 996
REMARKS:
The system was located using microwave and IR imagery but remains difficult to
pinpoint with any degree of certainty, although it does appear that the system
is a little further south than overnight positions indicated. The system remains
under moderate shear, and does appear to have slightly weakened over the past 24
hours, possibly due to the fact that it is moving into an area of cooler sea
surface temperatures.
A shear pattern yields a DT of 3.5, while a slight weakening over the past 24
hours indicates a MET of 3.0. Overnight ASCAT pass shows only a weak system, and
microwave imagery also supports this. FT is assigned at 3.0, with CI remaining
at 3.5.
Conditions may become a little more favourable over the next 12-24 hours as
shear decreases, although cool SSTs could mitigate this. The system may
intensify a little in this time, but is not expected to reach hurricane
intensity.
The system is now located to the east of Cocos Islands. It is forecast to take a
more southwesterly track during Tuesday, but it is unlikely to pass close enough
to the islands to produce anything more than a period of gale force winds.
As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP
guidance do not weaken the system until later.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 02/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC. |
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