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[南半球] 2010年10月南印度洋02S. ANGGREK

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-31 16:19 | 显示全部楼层
WTID01 WIIX 310254
EGC:2:1:24:09S094E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

IDJ20060
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

            OCEAN GALE WARNING

OCEAN GALE WARNING FOR AREA 0 90E, 10S 90E, 10S 120E, 11S 120E, 11S 125E, 9S125E, 9S 141E, and 0 141E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 07:46 UTC 31 October 2010

SITUATION
At 06:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone ANGGREK 995 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 8.7 S 94.1 E moving south southwest at 7 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 35 knots expected to increase to 60 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

18:00 UTC 31 October:  Within 70 nautical miles of 9.5 S 94.7 E
                        Central pressure 993 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 45 knots near centre.
06:00 UTC 01 November: Within 100 nautical miles of 10.2 S 95.5 E
                        Central pressure 970 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
High waves could reach 3 meters along waters of Mentawai Islands to western Lampung, Southern water of Sunda strait and Banten.
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 13:00 UTC 31 October 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-31 16:21 | 显示全部楼层
BMKG在JMA指导下,向西南定位了,和BOM定位差别很大,预测24h后交BOM管辖。东分量预测很小,很快转西。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-31 21:21 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1259 UTC 31/10/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.3S
Longitude: 96.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [148 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:  25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0 06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/0000: 10.2S  97.1E:     060 [110]:  050  [095]:  989
+24: 01/1200: 11.2S  97.8E:     090 [165]:  065  [120]:  979
+36: 02/0000: 12.0S  98.2E:     120 [225]:  080  [150]:  965
+48: 02/1200: 12.8S  98.2E:     155 [285]:  080  [150]:  965
+60: 03/0000: 13.6S  97.8E:     200 [375]:  080  [150]:  965
+72: 03/1200: 14.6S  97.3E:     250 [465]:  070  [130]:  974
REMARKS:
The deep convection continues to be displaced to the west of the LLCC under
moderate vertical shear. A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of T3.0. The
MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour trend of D-. Pattern matching indicates adjustment
to 3.0, hence both DT and PAT are 3.0. The final wind intensity estimate is
assigned at 40 knots.

In the last 6 hours there has been some development with deep convection
increasing to the west of the LLCC. The tc_ssmis microwave image at 1058z was
useful in identifying the centre location. Moderate shear continues over the
system, however, conditions are forecast to become more favourable overnight
with shear forecast to diminish and an outflow channel likely to become better
established to the south.
Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP
and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity during Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds during Tuesday.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP
guidance do not weaken the system until later.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 31/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-31 21:47 | 显示全部楼层
WTID01 WIIX 310254
EGC:2:1:24:09S095E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

IDJ20060
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

            OCEAN GALE WARNING

OCEAN GALE WARNING FOR AREA 0 90E, 10S 90E, 10S 120E, 11S 120E, 11S 125E, 9S125E, 9S 141E, and 0 141E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 13:36 UTC 31 October 2010

SITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone ANGGREK 993 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 9.4 S 95.3 E moving east southeast at 14 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 40 knots expected to increase to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

00:00 UTC 01 November:  Within 140 nautical miles of 8.8 S 95.4 E
                        Central pressure 997 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.
12:00 UTC 01 November: Within 175 nautical miles of 9.5 S 96.3 E
                        Central pressure 996 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
High waves could reach 3 meters along waters of Mentawai Islands to western Lampung, Southern water of Sunda strait and Banten.
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19:00 UTC 31 October 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-31 22:19 | 显示全部楼层
WTID01 WIIX 310254
EGC:2:1:24:09S095E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

IDJ20060
INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

            OCEAN GALE WARNING

OCEAN GALE WARNING FOR AREA 0 90E, 10S 90E, 10S 120E, 11S 120E, 11S 125E, 9S125E, 9S 141E, and 0 141E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 13:53 UTC 31 October 2010

SITUATION
At 12:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone ANGGREK 993 hPa was within 30 nautical miles of 9.4 S 95.3 E moving east southeast at 14 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 40 knots expected to increase to 50 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

00:00 UTC 01 November:  Within 90 nautical miles of 10.0 S 95.9 E
                        Central pressure 990 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 45 knots near centre.
12:00 UTC 01 November: Within 120 nautical miles of 10.8 S 96.5 E
                        Central pressure 985 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
High waves could reach 3 meters along waters of Mentawai Islands to western Lampung, Southern water of Sunda strait and Banten.
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 19:00 UTC 31 October 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-31 22:20 | 显示全部楼层
BMKG报文出错,重新更正了1次,认为在自己辖区可加强到45KT。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0110 UTC 01/11/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 9.9S
Longitude: 97.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [131 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:  25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 01/1200: 10.9S  97.8E:     060 [110]:  060  [110]:  982
+24: 02/0000: 11.9S  97.9E:     090 [165]:  070  [130]:  974
+36: 02/1200: 12.7S  97.3E:     120 [225]:  080  [150]:  966
+48: 03/0000: 13.4S  96.3E:     155 [285]:  075  [140]:  970
+60: 03/1200: 13.9S  95.5E:     200 [375]:  065  [120]:  978
+72: 04/0000: 14.5S  94.2E:     250 [465]:  060  [110]:  983
REMARKS:
The system was located using TRMM and AMSRE passes at 21 and 19Z together with
animated IR and NIR imagery. A shear pattern consistently gives a DT of T3.5
which is consistent with CIMSS AMSU intensity estimates. The latest SATCON is
slightly lower as a result of lower ADT CI numbers but the last four images have
seen adjustment of the CI upwards based on consistetnly higher Raw T numbers,
with the CI reaching 3.3 by 00Z. A warm spot has appeared on the 2330 MTSAT IR
image. Although it has the appearance of a eye this is not constent with other
data, particularly the structure revealed in microwave imagery. The warm spot
has appeared downshear of an overshooting Cb top that had a scattering signature
in the 37GHz TMM image and at this stage it is believed to be caused by downward
motion initiated by interaction of the overshooting top of the Cb with the
tropopause.

The MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour trend of D-. Pattern matching indicates no
adjustment hence both DT and MET/PAT are 3.5. The final wind intensity estimate
is assigned at 50 knots.

Moderate shear continues over the system, although upper flow is markedly
diffluent. Conditions are forecast to become more favourable during today with
shear forecast to diminish and an outflow channel likely to become better
established to the south.
Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP
and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity early Tuesday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands have a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds during Tuesday.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday. STIPS is consistent with this but some NWP
guidance do not weaken the system until later.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 01/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 10:43 | 显示全部楼层
EGC:2:1:24:10S096E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

            HIGH SEAS WARNING

HIGH SEAS WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 01:08 UTC 01 November 2010

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Cyclone ANGGREK 992 hPa was within 40 nautical miles of 9.9 S 96.5 E moving southeast at 5 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 6-12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
  and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 45 knots expected to increase to 55 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 01 November:  Within 70 nautical miles of 10.8 S 97.1 E
                        Central pressure 990 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 50 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 02 November: Within 100 nautical miles of 11.8 S 97.2 E
                        Central pressure 985 hPa.
                        Wind speed reaching 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
- Strong surface wind > 25 knot is expected to occur along Mentawai, Bengkulu, coastal area of Sumatera Barat and Lampung.
- Significant waves > 3 meters is expected to occur along western waters of Mentawai to western waters of Lampung, and southern part of Sunda Strait.
- Significant waves > 4 meters is expected to occur along western waters of Bengkulu.

Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.

Next warning will be issued by 07:00 UTC 01 November 2010 by TCWC Perth.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 10:43 | 显示全部楼层
下报起BMKG移交管辖权给BOM,定为45KT。BOM认为后期副高西伸后,01U20102011能移过90E移入西南印,并能在澳式CAT1以上级别,也就西南印的MTS以上级别,这样01U20102011有望获得第2个名字。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-11-1 11:50 | 显示全部楼层
See Weather Words or the Glossary to find out what the weather terms mean.

Check the latest weather warnings.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 8:58 am WST on Monday 1 November 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for people on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

At 8:00 am WST (6:30am Cocos local time) Tropical Cyclone Anggrek, Category 2,
was estimated to be
260 kilometres north northeast of Cocos Islands and
moving southeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek is expected to intensify during Monday as it moves
southwards towards the Cocos Islands. Squalls on the islands will get gradually
stronger during the day with periods of gale force winds by nightfall.  

With the cyclone expected to curve around toward the west on Tuesday it is
likely that it will be close to Cocos for an extended period and so gales may
continue throughout Tuesday. If the cyclone passes close by VERY DESTRUCTIVE
wind gusts will occur and tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide
mark with DAMAGING WAVES and flooding of low lying areas.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Anggrek at 8:00 am WST (3:30am Cocos local time):
.Centre located near...... 9.9 degrees South 97.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 989 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a YELLOW ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to take action and get ready to shelter from a
cyclone.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 12:00 pm WST Monday 01 November.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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