2010年10月南印度洋02S. ANGGREK

北落师门

A weak low has developed near 7S 101E. The low is expected to move towards the
southwest and be located south of latitude 10S by Monday night. The low is
likely to develop possibly reaching tropical cyclone intensity late on Sunday or
more likely during Monday or Tuesday. While there is a moderate likelihood the
low will become a cyclone on Sunday, the chance it will remain north of 10S
reduces the likelihood that it will be a cyclone in the Western Region.

BOM发现1个TL发展并编了号，编号是01U20102011数值预测有望发展为TC，并先后获得BMG或BOM和毛里求斯的名字。看下“兰花”能否开放。

北落师门

上次获得2个名字的是2007年11月的Lee转变为Ariel。

北落师门

美军10月29日00UTC认为是个LPA也给了临时编号SH92。定位7.5S，98.8E，也定在BMKG辖区。

北落师门

数值对系统较看好，认为能在BMKG辖区达澳式CAT1，并命名。并能加强为澳式CAT2，经过BOM辖区后，移入西南印并获毛里求斯名字。期待着第2个BMKG的名字，期待着兰花的开放。

北落师门

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Friday the 29th of October 2010
Valid until midnight WST Monday   


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low has developed near 7.5S 99E. The low is expected to move towards the
southwest and be located south of latitude 10S on Monday. The low is likely to
develop, possibly reaching tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday or Monday. While
there is a high probability [over 50%] that the low will become a cyclone on
Sunday, the likelihood that it will remain north of latitude 10S reduces the
chance that it will be a cyclone in the Western Region on that day.

This system may pass close to Cocos Island early next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday    : Low
Sunday      : Moderate
Monday      : High

北落师门

See Weather Words or the Glossary to find out what the weather terms mean.

Check the latest weather warnings.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0238 UTC 30/10/2010
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 7.5S
Longitude: 96.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: D2.5/2.5D1.5/1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1200:  7.9S  94.9E:     050 [095]:  040  [075]:  997
+24: 31/0000:  8.2S  94.5E:     070 [130]:  050  [095]:  990
+36: 31/1200:  8.6S  94.6E:     105 [195]:  060  [110]:  983
+48: 01/0000:  9.3S  95.2E:     140 [260]:  070  [130]:  976
+60: 01/1200: 10.2S  95.7E:     180 [335]:  080  [150]:  968
+72: 02/0000: 11.2S  95.9E:     220 [405]:  085  [155]:  963
REMARKS:
The system has significantly improved organisation over the last 24 hours,
despite continuing moderate shear. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to
overcome the shear, and low to mid level curvature of the cloud lines has
improved markedly in microwave imagery together with a consolidation of the
central overcast. At 00Z I have a position near 7.5S 96.0E. The SSMI/S image at
2231Z was particularly useful but this position also appears to place the LLCC
in a position relative to the CDO that is generally consistent with amount of
shear indicated in CIMSS satellite wind analyses, and with the 0030 MTSAT VIS
image that has become available since I analysed that position.  

Using a shear pattern gives a DT of around T3.0 but the MET is at 2.5 based on a
D+ 24 hour trend and yesterdays assignment of T1.0 at 00Z. The rules will limit
the FT to 2.5 and this is the assigned CI. The 1530Z ASCAT pass indicated 30
knot winds in the SW quadrant [the only sector it sampled but also the sector
with the greatest convection], and the intensity is analysed as being 30 knots
at 00Z consistent with the Dvorak analysis. Given the rate of development over
the last 24 hours the system is likely to reach cyclone intensity later today.  


Shear conditions are forecast to become more favourable while the system remains
over warm waters [>28C north of 10S].  The mid latitude system passing to the
south erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast
during Sunday. This also brings the system under the ridge into light shear and
by Sunday evening the system should be experiencing quite favourable conditions.
The development of the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental
to this system so based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the
trend in STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on
Monday.



The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands has a high risk of
impact.



As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 30/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

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Murilo

20101030.0400.meteo7.x.vis2km.92SINVEST.30kts-1000mb-80S-959E.100pc.jpg

sylar

A low has developed near 7.5S 99E. The low is expected to move towards the
southwest and be located south of latitude 10S on Monday. The low is likely to
develop, possibly reaching tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday or Monday. While
there is a high probability [over 50%] that the low will become a cyclone on
Sunday, the likelihood that it will remain north of latitude 10S reduces the
chance that it will be a cyclone in the Western Region on that day.

This system may pass close to Cocos Island early next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Saturday    : Low
Sunday      : Moderate
Monday      : High

No other significant lows are expected to develop over the next three days.


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:  less than 5%      Low:    5% - 20%,
Moderate:  20% - 50%         High:   Over 50%

北落师门

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 30/10/2010
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 7.7S
Longitude: 96.0E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: N/A
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5 6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1800:  8.0S  95.3E:     050 [095]:  045  [085]:  993
+24: 31/0600:  8.4S  95.1E:     070 [130]:  055  [100]:  986
+36: 31/1800:  9.0S  95.5E:     105 [195]:  065  [120]:  980
+48: 01/0600:  9.8S  96.1E:     140 [260]:  075  [140]:  972
+60: 01/1800: 10.6S  96.4E:     180 [335]:  080  [150]:  967
+72: 02/0600: 11.7S  96.5E:     220 [405]:  085  [155]:  963
REMARKS:
The system has significantly improved organisation over the last 24 hours,
despite continuing moderate shear. High SSTs are likely assisting the low to
overcome the shear, and low to mid level curvature of the cloud lines has
improved markedly in microwave imagery together with a consolidation of the
central overcast.   

Using a shear pattern consistently gives a DT of around T3.0 over the last 3
available images. The MET is at 3.0 based on a 24 hour trend of D+ and
yesterdays assignment of T1.0 at 00Z. Pattern matching does not indicate any
adjustment to the MET and hence both DT and MET are 3.0. There are FT
constraints to assigning 3.0 hence FT and CI are set at 3.0. prevent a The will
limit the FT to 2.5 and this is the assigned CI. The 0244Z ASCAT pass indicates
25-30 knots in the western semicircle, however given the previously reported low
bias of ASCAT it is possible that winds in this region are 30-35 knots. The
final wind intensity estimate is assigned at 30 knots. This system is considered
to be very close to TC intensity and gales are likely to extend around the LLCC
during the next diurnally favourable period overnight.

Shear conditions are forecast to become more favourable during Sunday and the
system will remain over SST>28C.  The mid latitude system passing to the south
erodes the mid level ridge and results in a recurvature to the southeast during
Sunday. This also brings the system under the ridge into light shear and by
Sunday evening the system should be experiencing quite favourable conditions.
The development of the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental
to this system so based on the expected conditions, and consistent with the
trend in STIPS intensity guidance it is forecast to reach hurricane force on
Monday.

The spread of model guidance indicates the Cocos Islands has a high risk of
impact from hurricane force winds.

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal. The
system is also likely to encounter more stable boundary layer air in the wake of
the mid latitude system. Hence the system is expected to weaken as it moves off
to the southwest on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued at: 30/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

北落师门

BMKG不愿命名，BOM妥协了，尽管FT３．０，可升TC，可命名．