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[北大西洋] 2010年10月北大西洋20L.SHARY

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发表于 2010-10-28 08:20 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2010年10月北大西洋热带扰动92L

世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明

  报告人:sylar
所属团队:21cma
扰动编号:92L
编号时间:28 OCT 2010 0000Z
初始强度:25kts.1006mb
扰动定位:22.5N.53.5W(查看位置:TC Google Map)
存在区域:北大西洋
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构良好;多频微波结构較差;云图螺旋性一般
  2、系统环境分析:辐合状态一般;辐散状态良好;系统所处垂直风切微弱;系统所处海表温度 28-29C
3、系统现状其他分析: 無
数值预报:轉向
个人评估:發展機會低
  XX
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见: 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。


DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-29 11:19 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Storm SHARY Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 290254
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS.  THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC.  BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SINCE THERE IS
ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20.  IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  FOR NOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0300Z 27.3N  63.7W    35 KT
12HR VT     29/1200Z 29.6N  65.4W    40 KT
24HR VT     30/0000Z 32.8N  63.9W    45 KT
36HR VT     30/1200Z 35.5N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT     31/0000Z 39.3N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     01/0000Z 43.5N  45.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
发表于 2010-10-29 20:22 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Storm SHARY Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 290835
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF SHARY IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...A LARGE BURST OF
CONVECTION HAS FORMED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE
SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL THAN EARLIER AS ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS INCREASING AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS LESS DISTORTED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT
FROM TAFB/SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS THE STORM
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  SHARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT IS ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  NOTE THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF
BOTH SHOW SHARY BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR FORECAST AT THAT
TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 325/16...A BIT SLOWER THAN
EARLIER. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH COLLAPSES AS A MID-LATITUDE
SWINGS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM...THOUGH THE
SPEED DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE NEW FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER
SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...AND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      29/0900Z 28.5N  65.0W    35 KT
12HR VT     29/1800Z 30.8N  65.1W    45 KT
24HR VT     30/0600Z 33.9N  62.0W    45 KT
36HR VT     30/1800Z 37.7N  56.3W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT     31/0600Z 42.5N  48.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
发表于 2010-10-30 12:23 | 显示全部楼层
10年北大西洋風季末的迷你小型氣旋--60KT--熱帶風暴上限~
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-30 20:06 | 显示全部楼层
Hurricane SHARY Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 300836
TCDAT5
HURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM
OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE
37-GHZ CHANNEL.  WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER
...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL.
THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH
DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS.  IT IS
HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS
THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT.  THIS IS A GOOD CASE
OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE
THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE.

THE TRMM PASSES AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
SHARY HAS ACCELERATED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW SPEEDING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LATITUDE FLOW. A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHARY IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ABSORBING THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION...AND THE
NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
MOTION AND THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. SHARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SOON DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN
76F. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 33.6N  59.4W    65 KT
12HR VT     30/1800Z 35.7N  54.6W    55 KT
24HR VT     31/0600Z 38.5N  48.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
发表于 2010-10-31 12:11 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Storm SHARY Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 302034
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010
500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW
INTERACTING WITH SHARY AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS
SUGGEST THAT CYCLONE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...SHARY IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS STORM
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

THE POST-TROPICAL STORM IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 42 KT.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/2100Z 39.2N  50.9W    60 KT
12HR VT     31/0600Z 42.8N  44.2W    55 KT...DISSIPATED
24HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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