Vortex Data Message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 052341 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 05/23:06:20Z
B. 20 deg 20 min N
073 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1405 m
D. 46 kt
E. 319 deg 45 nm
F. 035 deg 31 kt
G. 316 deg 4 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 15 C / 1511 m
J. 17 C / 1521 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 1921A TOMAS OB 25 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 57 KT E QUAD 23:19:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 182 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
RAGGED SPIRAL BAND ON RADAR FIXED NEAR HEAD OF COMMA
SONDE RELEASED APPROX 5 TO 8 NM SSW OF FIX POSN
;
Hurricane TOMAS Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 070848
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010
AROUND 06Z...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C
DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A WARM SPOT OR EYE FEATURE BRIEFLY
BECAME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
FLATTENED ON THE WEST SIDE AS WESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED TO IMPINGE
ON THE CYCLONE. A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT FROM
TAFB ALONG WITH AODT AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES OF T4.3/72 KT
SUPPORT MAINTAINING A SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 70 KT AT 06Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE TO THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD MASS...THE 09Z ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 65 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/06. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE 06Z FIXES. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS
INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A
BROAD EASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH GRADUALLY DECOUPLES THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVELS CIRCULATIONS...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE
STEERED EASTWARD BY WEAKER FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BY 48
HOURS...TOMAS IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE
CAPTURED BY AND PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE 40-50 KT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE
HIGH-LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER OF TOMAS. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATION SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 48
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR AND VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD RESULT IN MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOYS 41047 AND
41047. THE INCREASE IN THE OUTER WIND FIELD IS DUE TO A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO TOMAS...WHICH HAS
ACTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE.
Vortex Data Message
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000
URNT12 KWBC 062359
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 6/2341Z
B. 24 DEG 54 MIN N
69 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2998 M
D. 63 KT
E. 039 DEG 13 NM
F. 130 DEG 70 KT
G. 039 DEG 19 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 10 C/3072 M
J. 15 C/3055 M
K. 12 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2221A TOMAS OB 15
MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 2338Z
SONDE LAUNCHED AT 24 DEG 50 MIN N 69 DEG 46 MIN W
Tropical Storm TOMAS Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 072032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES
INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...
AND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT
RANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR
THE INITIAL INTENSITY. STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH
LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.