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[北大西洋] 2010年10月北大西洋21L.TOMAS

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发表于 2010-11-4 20:11 | 显示全部楼层
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 041120
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL212010
A. 04/11:08:00Z
B. 15 deg 50 min N
  076 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1402 m
D. 30 kt
E. 048 deg 16 nm
F. 117 deg 41 kt
G. 047 deg 36 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 17 C / 1522 m
J. 20 C / 1520 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1321A TOMAS              OB 20
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 10:56:50Z
RADAR PRESENTATION IMPROVING WITH MULTIPLE BANDING ON EASTERN SIDE
发表于 2010-11-5 07:59 | 显示全部楼层
整合出一个大尾巴,CDO较小,上望1级飓风,古巴东部,海地,多米尼加西部将迎来狂风暴雨的洗礼
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-11-5 10:52 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Storm TOMAS Forecast Discussion
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ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THE INNER-CORE WIND STRUCTURE AND
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF TOMAS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THERE
IS ABOUT 12 NMI NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO THE VORTEX...THIS HAS NOT
PREVENTED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM FALLING AND THE WINDS FROM
INCREASING. THE MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE
AIR FORCE WAS 61 KT...AND 58 KT WAS REPORTED AT 700 MB BY THE NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTERS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 56-58 KT.
THE LATEST NOAA RECON PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 989 MB...AND THAT WAS
WITH 13 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE. A COMBINATION OF THESE DATA
EASILY SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE A
LITTLE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT A WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED
INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN A RING OF VERY COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -85C NEAR
THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 030/08. TOMAS HAS NOW MOVED NORTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. TOMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S....FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE EVEN SHIFTED MORE TO
THE EAST ON THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT TIME...
HOWLING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR
APART TOMAS AND LEAVE BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD BY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS TAKE TOMAS OR ITS REMNANTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND
MERGE IT WITH A DEEP EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...THE GFS...ECMWF...
UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW TOMAS SHEARING APART AND REMAINING
JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS
PREFERRED GIVEN THE EXTREMELY HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY
INITIAL POSITION.

TOMAS HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN OVER 29C SSTS AND IN A
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS...MID-LEVEL
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 40 PERCENT...WHICH COULD
ACT TO ERODE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BY 48
HOURS THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY AND TOMAS
SHOULD BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS...LGEM...
AND GFDL MODELS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING
MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 17.3N  75.5W    55 KT
12HR VT     05/1200Z 18.8N  74.6W    65 KT
24HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  73.1W    70 KT
36HR VT     06/1200Z 23.4N  71.5W    70 KT
48HR VT     07/0000Z 25.1N  70.2W    55 KT
72HR VT     08/0000Z 27.2N  67.9W    40 KT
96HR VT     09/0000Z 28.3N  65.8W    30 KT...POST-TROPICAL
120HR VT     10/0000Z 28.5N  64.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN
发表于 2010-11-5 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KWBC 050056
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL212010
A. 5/0012Z
B. 17 DEG 5 MIN N
   75 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3042 M
D. 48 KT
E. 005 DEG  18 NM
F. 105 DEG  35 KT
G. 002 DEG  55 NM
H. 989 MB
I. 12 C/3058 M
J. 16 C/3057 M
K. 12 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1721A TOMAS OB 13
   MAX FL WIND 35KT NE QUAD 2359Z
发表于 2010-11-5 10:58 | 显示全部楼层
主要暖心重新来到700hpa层面附近,系统在加强过程中。
发表于 2010-11-5 15:38 | 显示全部楼层
Vortex Data Message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 050647 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL212010
A. 05/06:13:50Z
B. 17 deg 44 min N
  075 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1312 m
D. 44 kt
E. 144 deg 25 nm
F. 231 deg 63 kt
G. 145 deg 23 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 18 C / 1520 m
J. 24 C / 1524 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 1821A TOMAS              OB 05 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 64 KT NE QUAD 06:28:30Z
LONG ACTIVE SPIRAL BAND STARTING 20NM W OF CNTR AROUND 40N THRU E AND SE
FREQ MDT TURBC IN SPIRAL BAND APPROX 55NM FM CNTR
COR FOR MAX WINDS INBOUND
;
发表于 2010-11-5 16:42 | 显示全部楼层
Hurricane TOMAS Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 050838
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

TOMAS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FOUND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 88 KT AND MAXIMUM
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 75 KT.  THE LATTER OBSERVATION
APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SPIKE IN THE RECORD...AND USING A
BLEND OF THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA GIVES 70 KT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.   OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A
TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS TILTED
NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS APPROACHING -90C.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/08.  TOMAS IS LOCATED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MOVE ON A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  AFTER 48 HOURS...TOMAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD IN A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE INCREASING SHEAR REDUCES TOMAS TO A
SHALLOWER FEATURE.  THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE
GFS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS.  AN ALTERNATIVE EVOLUTION
IS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECMWF.  THE
LATTER MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PRESUMABLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...THAT MOVES MORE
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

TOMAS STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR...HIGH MOISTURE...AND OVER WARM WATERS.
AFTER THAT...A RAPID INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...NOT TO MENTION DRIER AND COOLER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME FEATURE IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION...
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING PHASE.  THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE BUT ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...INDICATING
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS AND WEAKENING
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS.  WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS COULD BE
MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED...CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD BE
HIGHER THAN 60 KT AFTER 60 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-
THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0900Z 18.1N  74.9W    70 KT
12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.8N  73.9W    75 KT
24HR VT     06/0600Z 22.1N  72.4W    75 KT
36HR VT     06/1800Z 24.4N  70.9W    65 KT
48HR VT     07/0600Z 25.8N  69.6W    50 KT
72HR VT     08/0600Z 27.5N  67.5W    35 KT
96HR VT     09/0600Z 28.5N  65.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     10/0600Z 28.5N  63.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
发表于 2010-11-5 16:43 | 显示全部楼层
NHC飞机实测支持重回Hurricane。
发表于 2010-11-5 18:27 | 显示全部楼层
升級為1級颶風--65KT,系統在轉向的過程中迅速整合出一個低層眼,但多頻掃描顯示眼墻有破損~
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-11-6 10:52 | 显示全部楼层
Hurricane TOMAS Forecast Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 060241
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
1100 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

BEFORE DEPARTING EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
OF 57 KT AND A RISING CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
THE CYCLONE HAD ALSO BECOME A BIT DISHEVELED EARLIER THIS EVENING
...HOWEVER COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE AGAIN INCREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED
CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT...AND THE
NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP DETERMINE IF TOMAS HAS
WEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR
OVER TOMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA COULD BE PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM
STRENGTHENING FURTHER. CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING...AIRCRAFT
DATA AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS NOW
TILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND THE RAPID
DETERIORATION OF THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS AS
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...TOMAS MAY
HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES
FURTHER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS
IN 96 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS
DESIGNED TO HANDLE CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS IS MOVING MORE TO
THE RIGHT...OR EASTWARD...THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/11 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...WHICH IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CUTS OFF OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER TOMAS WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD
INTO THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OR BE
SHEARED APART AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET
FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION AND LIE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFDL...HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE FARTHER NORTH
WITH A DEEPER CYCLONE. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR VALUES LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH
TO BE PULLED TOO FAR NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE TRACKS OF THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 48
HOURS. AT DAYS 3 AND 4...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS HAS PASSED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND TOMAS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      06/0300Z 20.8N  72.8W    65 KT
12HR VT     06/1200Z 22.4N  71.7W    65 KT
24HR VT     07/0000Z 23.9N  70.9W    60 KT
36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.7N  70.1W    55 KT
48HR VT     08/0000Z 25.0N  68.8W    45 KT
72HR VT     09/0000Z 26.0N  66.0W    30 KT
96HR VT     10/0000Z 26.0N  63.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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