Vortex Data Message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 310708
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 31/06:48:10Z
B. 13 deg 50 min N
062 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2967 m
D. 59 kt
E. 129 deg 8 nm
F. 227 deg 81 kt
G. 129 deg 8 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 9 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3043 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C22
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0321A TOMAS OB 09
MAX FL WIND 97 KT NE QUAD 05:35:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 84 KT NW QUAD 06:54:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 135 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
Hurricane TOMAS Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 310843
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85
KT IS BASED ON A 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 97 KT AND A
MAXIMUM SFMR READING OF 85 KT. HOWEVER...DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT AND A 0350 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS
TILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE CYCLONE AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYSIS
WHICH IS BASED ON ATMOSPHERIC FIELDS FROM THE GFS MODEL. IN THE
SHORT TERM...THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL ALL SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FROM 24 TO 72
HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING...AND ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE WEAKENS TOMAS. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS WEAKENING DURING
THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT
DIP IN THE INTENSITY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...BUT REMAINS WELL ABOVE
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. AROUND 96 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AND
ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM.
BASED ON RECENT FIXES TOMAS IS A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST AND THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/7. TOMAS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF TOMAS AND SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...
RESULTING IN A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AND SOME GAIN IN
LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5
DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE NORTHWARD
TURN AS TOMAS INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT
IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE IN DEFERENCE TO THE
GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH ARE ALL EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH. AT DAY 5...A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST ARE LOWER THAN
USUAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
Hurricane TOMAS Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 311444
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS HAS GENERALLY DECREASED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NO LONGER SHOW AN
EYE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 80
KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE NEXT AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS. SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN SHOW A SOUTH
OF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO ERODE. TOMAS IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT FEELS THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
ALTHOUGH TOMAS LIES OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AS SHOWN BY
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL...SHOW THE VORTEX
TILTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN THE
WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IN THOSE MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME. A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING.
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT.
Tropical Storm TOMAS Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 010234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...PARTICULARLY A 0045 UTC SSMIS PASS...
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT
140 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS BEEN MOVING A
LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5/3.5 FROM SAB...AND T3.4/4.3 FROM THE
ADT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS...BUT
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN REQUIRED TO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BELOW THE
OUTFLOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TOMAS FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ALL THE INTENSITY
MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...LEVELING THE
INTENSITY AT 40 KT BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. THIS IS STILL ABOVE
MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT TOMAS COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 72 HOURS...AND
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TOMAS TO RESTRENGTHEN...POSSIBLY
BACK TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
NOW THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF TOMAS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 270/13.
THE SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION HAS CAUSED THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE A LITTLE SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TOMAS...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SPEED DIFFERENCES MAINLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE GFDN AND HWRF ARE STILL THE FASTEST MODELS...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
JOINED BY THE ECMWF...MAKING A FASTER SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE
CREDIBLE BY DAY 5.
Vortex Data Message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 312032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 31/20:00:00Z
B. 14 deg 22 min N
064 deg 47 min W
C. 850 mb 1403 m
D. 42 kt
E. 330 deg 1 nm
F. 226 deg 38 kt
G. 143 deg 17 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 19 C / 1514 m
J. 23 C / 1504 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0421A TOMAS OB 13
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT N QUAD 20:06:10Z
SURFACE CENTER SE OF POSITION APPROX 2 NM.
SPIRAL BANDING ON NORTH SIDE.
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 62 KTS N QUAD 20:02:50Z
Vortex Data Message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 010706 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 01/06:54:40Z
B. 13 deg 47 min N
067 deg 16 min W
C. 850 mb 1457 m
D. 27 kt
E. 142 deg 9 nm
F. 213 deg 21 kt
G. 139 deg 63 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 17 C / 1543 m
J. 23 C / 1540 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 0521A TOMAS OB 08 CCA
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NE QUAD 05:45:50Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 07:08:50Z