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[北大西洋] 2010年10月北大西洋21L.TOMAS

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发表于 2010-10-28 08:18 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2010年10月北大西洋热带扰动91L

世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明

  报告人:sylar
所属团队:21cma
扰动编号:91L
编号时间:28 OCT 2010 0000Z
初始强度:25kts.1005mb
扰动定位:6N.43W(查看位置:TC Google Map)
存在区域:北大西洋
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构良好;多频微波结构較差;云图螺旋性一般
  2、系统环境分析:辐合状态一般;辐散状态良好;系统所处垂直风切微弱;系统所处海表温度 28-29C
3、系统现状其他分析: 無
数值预报:EC支持
个人评估:發展機會中等
  XX
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见: 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-28 08:21 | 显示全部楼层

2010年10月北大西洋热带扰动91L

2010年10月北大西洋热带扰动91L


世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明



报告人:qwer
所属团队:21CMA
扰动编号:91L
编号时间:27  OCT  2010  1930Z
初始强度:25KT-1008HPA
扰动定位:6.0N  43.0W
存在区域:巴西东北海域
  
系统现状报告
   
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构较差;多频微波结构较差;云图螺旋性一般
   
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态较差;辐散状态一般;系统所处垂直风切较弱;系统所处海表温度29℃左右
   
3、系统现状其他分析: 无
   
数值预报
   
EC数值预报发展机会中等,沿南美洲北部海岸西行进入加勒比海
  
  
个人评估
  
XX
   
   
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  
2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
  
3、更多基础知识请见:追击台风的基本知识
  
4、世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明
  
5、世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-28 15:37 | 显示全部楼层
由於91L貼子已存在,作合拼處理。
发表于 2010-10-29 08:34 | 显示全部楼层
91L和92L都被TCFA了


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
.----92L


2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS
...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUYANA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.--91L


3. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.--90L

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-29 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
NHC和CPHC无TCFA发报的,美军按自己习惯引用NHC和CPHC数据时发TCFA并无意义。NHC对系统看好,有望成今年第21个TC,和第19个命名TC,北大西洋今年命名表上还有3个名字,不够用,就需启用希腊字母,就2005年出现过。
发表于 2010-10-29 20:25 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM SHARY...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

NHC可能要编TC。
发表于 2010-10-30 12:28 | 显示全部楼层
TOMAS閃亮登場~漂亮的旋轉~
低層構建欠佳~EC數值進入加勒比后減弱
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-30 20:05 | 显示全部楼层
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 301130
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL212010
A. 30/10:47:40Z
B. 12 deg 59 min N
  059 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3033 m
D. 51 kt
E. 298 deg 23 nm
F. 020 deg 52 kt
G. 301 deg 57 nm
H. EXTRAP 993 mb
I. 10 C / 3043 m
J. 13 C / 3046 m
K. 1 C / NA
L. SPIRAL EYEWALL
M. E36/50/30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0221A TOMAS              OB 04
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NW QUAD 10:31:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE
SEVERAL SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING IN TO CTR FROM NORTH
发表于 2010-10-31 12:09 | 显示全部楼层
Hurricane TOMAS Forecast Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT41 KNHC 310246
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE TIME THE ST.
LUCIA WEATHER SERVICE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS ON THAT ISLAND OF AT
LEAST 80 KT AROUND 2130 UTC.  AN EYE HAS NOT BECOME ESTABLISHED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS WELL DEFINED IN RADAR
DATA FROM MARTINIQUE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KT SINCE
THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS RECENT CHANGES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD
BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER TONIGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE IS MUCH GREATER SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL SUPPORT A STRONGER MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND MOVE TOMAS ON A WESTWARD OR
JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION ON DAYS 2-4.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN
SHOW TOMAS MOVING WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY DAY 5...AND THE HWRF
SHOWS THE CYCLONE STALLING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE
LATTER THREE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN BATCH
OF MODELS.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING BEYOND ABOUT
90 KT.  THE 200-MB FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY IF TOMAS MAINTAINS A MORE
SOUTHERN COURSE.  HOWEVER...CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES OF THE GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE VORTEX COULD BECOME A LITTLE TILTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...POSSIBLY DUE TO SHEAR BELOW THE
OUTFLOW LAYER.  BECAUSE OF THESE MIXED SIGNALS...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS
AND ESSENTIALLY HOLDS THE INTENSITY FAIRLY STEADY THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/0300Z 13.6N  62.1W    80 KT
12HR VT     31/1200Z 14.0N  63.8W    90 KT
24HR VT     01/0000Z 14.6N  65.9W    95 KT
36HR VT     01/1200Z 14.9N  68.0W    95 KT
48HR VT     02/0000Z 15.0N  69.7W    95 KT
72HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N  72.5W    95 KT
96HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N  74.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  74.5W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
发表于 2010-10-31 12:09 | 显示全部楼层
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 301656
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL212010
A. 30/16:29:50Z
B. 13 deg 09 min N
  060 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 3025 m
D. 54 kt
E. 299 deg 33 nm
F. 360 deg 58 kt
G. 295 deg 42 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 9 C / 3051 m
J. 13 C / 3043 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. RAGGED BANDING
M. C40
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0221A TOMAS              OB 26
MAX FL WIND 67 KT N QUAD 14:16:50Z
RADAR STRONG BAND SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE RAGGED APPEARANCE OVERALL
LAST REPORT
;
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