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[南半球] 2010年10月南印度洋01S

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发表于 2010-10-25 11:02 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2010年10月南印度洋热带扰动91S



世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明


  报告人:北落师门
所属团队:21cma
扰动编号:91S
编号时间: 24 OCT 2010 1800Z
初始强度:15kts.1010mb
扰动定位:9.5S.85.8E(查看位置:TC Google Map)
存在区域:南印度洋
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构一般;多频微波结构較差;云图螺旋性良好
  2、系统环境分析:辐合状态一般;辐散状态良好;系统所处垂直风切微弱;系统所处海表温度 27-28C
3、系统现状其他分析: 无
数值预报:部分數值支持
个人评估:發展機會中等
  XX

备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---


1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见: 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。
sm20101025_0130_gms6_x_wv1km_91SINVEST_15kts-1010mb-95S-858E_100pc.jpg
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-25 11:13 | 显示全部楼层
Meteo France和毛里求斯数值看好,有望发展为下半年第1个获得名字的西南印的MTS,今年南半球风季启动较早,在11月前。
发表于 2010-10-25 22:10 | 显示全部楼层
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7S 86.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED, ALBEIT DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION AROUND A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH. THE SHALLOW AREA OF CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN A 251214Z
SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
发表于 2010-10-25 22:10 | 显示全部楼层
BULLETIN DU 25 OCTOBRE A 16H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20102011 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting              01-20102011      end_of_the_skype_highlighting

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA.
POSITION LE 25 OCTOBRE A 16 HEURES LOCALES:  10.0 SUD / 86.2 EST
(DIX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES:    3470 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT:                         SUD-OUEST A 16 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 11S/85.8E
TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 12.3S/83.5E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 13.7S/79.5E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER
AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE
LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 22H30
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-26 01:03 | 显示全部楼层
毛里求斯定为LPA,Meteo France定为热带扰动系统,上望STS。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-26 01:19 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC 319
WTIO30 FMEE 251241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2010/10/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0S / 86.2E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/26 00 UTC: 10.4S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2010/10/26 12 UTC: 11.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/10/27 00 UTC: 11.6S/85.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2010/10/27 12 UTC: 12.3S/83.5E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2010/10/28 00 UTC: 13.1S/81.5E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 13.7S/79.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM FOLLOWED SINCE TWO DAYS BEGAN TO ORGANIZE. IT STILL UNDERGOES
A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WELL EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOVEMENT IS SOUTHWESTWARDS AT 9 KT. THE
EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL
INFLOW IS WORSE THAT YESTERDAY, BUT IS GOOD POLARWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY UP TO 24 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM
COMES NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS, S
ST REMAIN AT ABOUT 27oC AND BEYOND BECOME COOLER. ACCORDING WITH THIS
CONDITIONS, AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST A SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
NNNN
发表于 2010-10-26 07:49 | 显示全部楼层
WTXS21 PGTW 252300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 9.6S 86.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 252251Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 86.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S
86.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 835 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) IS EASING AND CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING. A 251943Z AMSR-E
36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING ORGANIZING AND EMCOMPASSING
ALL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE SHORT TERM AS THE LLCC DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIVEN
WESTWARD BY A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 24. A
251523Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED NUMEROUS 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE
CENTER. SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
262300Z.
//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-26 11:34 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO30 FMEE 260030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/1/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1
2.A POSITION 2010/10/26 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 86.1E
(TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 50 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 170 NO: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/10/26 12 UTC: 10.9S/85.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2010/10/27 00 UTC: 11.5S/84.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2010/10/27 12 UTC: 12.3S/83.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
48H: 2010/10/28 00 UTC: 12.9S/81.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
60H: 2010/10/28 12 UTC: 13.7S/79.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2010/10/29 00 UTC: 14.2S/77.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- CI=2.5-
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DECREASES SLIGHTLY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
IMPROVE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER THE RECENT PAS HOURS.
LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW INTENSIFICATION, SYSTEM HAS THEREFORE
PROBABLY REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON IMPROVING WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DECREASES AND POLEWARD LOW LEVEL
INFLOW INCREASES.
ON AND AFTER 3 DAYS, SYSTEM WOULD TRACK OVER MARGINAL COOL WATER AND IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO STOP ITS INTENSIFICATION.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-26 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
Meteo France认为将进入低海温区,上望40KT,这报升TD。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-26 14:28 | 显示全部楼层
Meteo France再度看好,毛里求斯06UTC不愿命名。
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