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[北大西洋] 2010年10月北大西洋90L

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发表于 2010-10-21 20:34 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2010年10月北大西洋热带扰动90L

世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明

  报告人:sylar
所属团队:21cma
扰动编号:90L
编号时间: 21 OCT 2010 1145Z
初始强度:20kts.1010mb
扰动定位:10N.22.5W(查看位置:TC Google Map)
存在区域:北大西洋
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构良好;多频微波结构較差;云图螺旋性一般
  2、系统环境分析:辐合状态一般;辐散状态良好;系统所处垂直风切微弱;系统所处海表温度 28-29C
3、系统现状其他分析: 無
数值预报:EC支持
个人评估:發展機會中等
  XX
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见: 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。


A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EVEN
THOUGH THIS IS HISTORICALLY NOT A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN LATE OCTOBER...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-22 08:15 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RICHARD LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND
CAYMAN AND ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

NHC谨慎看好。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-24 12:46 | 显示全部楼层
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-26 14:32 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION RICHARD...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO.

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL
LOW.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NHC认为可能发展为subTC,但认为明后天环境转差。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-28 08:21 | 显示全部楼层
A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.  DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-28 11:56 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

1. UPDATED...A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE.  ANY ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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