2010年10月北大西洋热带扰动90L
世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见: 免责声明
报告人:sylar
所属团队:21cma
扰动编号:90L
编号时间: 21 OCT 2010 1145Z
初始强度:20kts.1010mb
扰动定位:10N.22.5W(查看位置:TC Google Map)
存在区域:北大西洋
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构良好;多频微波结构較差;云图螺旋性一般
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态一般;辐散状态良好;系统所处垂直风切微弱;系统所处海表温度 28-29C
3、系统现状其他分析: 無
数值预报:EC支持
个人评估:發展機會中等
XX
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见: 追击台风的基本知识
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A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EVEN
THOUGH THIS IS HISTORICALLY NOT A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN LATE OCTOBER...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. |