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[西太台风] 10月下旬TD c(17W)官方报文帖

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发表于 2010-10-21 10:47 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 21 October 2010
<Analyses at 21/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N19°05'(19.1°)
E160°05'(160.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 22/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E156°05'(156.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
发表于 2010-10-21 11:38 | 显示全部楼层
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN22 PGTW 210300
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200921Z OCT 10//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 200930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 160.4E TO 24.3N 153.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 210230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 159.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
160.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 202258Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A
COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING
UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 220300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 146.7E.//
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发表于 2010-10-21 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
熱帯低気圧
平成22年10月21日16時00分 発表
<21日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南鳥島近海
中心位置 北緯 19度55分(19.9度)
東経 158度35分(158.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧 1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<22日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南鳥島近海
予報円の中心 北緯 22度35分(22.6度)
東経 155度35分(155.6度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
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发表于 2010-10-21 18:26 | 显示全部楼层
熱帯低気圧
平成22年10月21日19時10分 発表
<21日18時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南鳥島近海
中心位置 北緯 20度10分(20.2度)
東経 157度50分(157.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<22日18時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南鳥島近海
予報円の中心 北緯 23度10分(23.2度)
東経 155度10分(155.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
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发表于 2010-10-21 21:29 | 显示全部楼层
熱帯低気圧
平成22年10月21日22時20分 発表
<21日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南鳥島近海
中心位置 北緯 20度20分(20.3度)
東経 157度10分(157.2度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<22日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南鳥島近海
予報円の中心 北緯 23度20分(23.3度)
東経 154度50分(154.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
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发表于 2010-10-22 07:51 | 显示全部楼层
WTPN33 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 156.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 156.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 21.6N 154.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 22.5N 153.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 23.3N 153.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 23.9N 154.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 155.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780
NM NORTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 211503Z AMSR-E PASS, AND A
212430Z KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS INDICATE THAT TD
17W HAS FORMED JUST POLEWARD OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT)
CELL. TD 17W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND INDUCE A POLEWARD TURN INTO A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A WEAK
STEERING SETUP. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, INCLUDING
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE CENTER OF TD 17W FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, SHOULD PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN DISSIPATION BELOW THE 25 KNOT
WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY AROUND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 210251Z OCT 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 210300). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z,
221500Z AND 222100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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发表于 2010-10-22 07:52 | 显示全部楼层
熱帯低気圧
平成22年10月22日07時05分 発表
<22日06時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南鳥島近海
中心位置 北緯 21度00分(21.0度)
東経 155度30分(155.5度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<23日06時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南鳥島近海
予報円の中心 北緯 23度00分(23.0度)
東経 154度10分(154.2度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
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发表于 2010-10-22 09:46 | 显示全部楼层
熱帯低気圧
平成22年10月22日10時20分 発表
<22日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南鳥島近海
中心位置 北緯 21度00分(21.0度)
東経 155度25分(155.4度)
進行方向、速さ 西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
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发表于 2010-10-22 12:52 | 显示全部楼层
WTPN33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002   
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 155.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 155.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 22.0N 154.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 22.9N 154.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 23.5N 154.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3N 155.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM NORTHEAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND
230300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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发表于 2010-10-22 15:48 | 显示全部楼层
#3
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