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[西太台风] 2010年10月西北太平洋17W-取消POOR

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发表于 2010-10-20 08:28 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2010年10月西北太平洋98W


报告人:qwer
所属团队:21CMA
扰动编号:98W
编号时间:18  SEP  1758Z  2010
初始强度:15KT-1010HPA
扰动定位:14.1N  164.3E
存在区域:马绍尔群岛附近海域
  
系统现状报告
   
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构明显;多频微波结构良好;云图螺旋性颇佳
   
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态良好;辐散状态一般;系统所处垂直风切微弱;系统所处海表温度28℃左右
   
3、系统现状其他分析: 无
   
数值预报
   
EC数值预报发展机会较大
  
  
个人评估:无
  

   
   
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  
2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
  
3、更多基础知识请见:追击台风的基本知识
  
4、世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明
  
5、世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-20 11:29 | 显示全部楼层
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 13N 163E WNW 10 KT.
发表于 2010-10-20 19:05 | 显示全部楼层
過去六小時,98W的850MB深度明顯加強,老J沒空管這個了?
wgmsvor.gif
发表于 2010-10-21 03:27 | 显示全部楼层
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.7N 162.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 201444Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD
TUTT CELL AND DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
发表于 2010-10-21 08:18 | 显示全部楼层
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7N
162.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 160.6E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM WEST
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A
SMALL, WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 202022Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
(TPW) PRODUCTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A
COLD-CORE TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITH THE LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN
A POCKET OF INCREASING, MORE FAVORABLE TPW VALUES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. THE LLCC IS DEVELOPING
UNDER A TUTT CELL, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
发表于 2010-10-21 10:46 | 显示全部楼层
JMA对20100020也发GW了。
发表于 2010-10-21 10:54 | 显示全部楼层
TD C!!!
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-21 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
和2007年一样,在罗莎即将衰微的时候,两个新的热带气旋赶来助阵。
   
现在精彩了,今年第二次三旋并存!!!
发表于 2010-10-22 05:39 | 显示全部楼层
双子台风迟迟不出世,既然如此干吗那么早GW,吊人胃口……
      
<22日03時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南鳥島近海
中心位置 北緯 20度55分(20.9度)
東経 156度05分(156.1度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
发表于 2010-10-22 07:51 | 显示全部楼层
已經升為17W。
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