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[北印度洋] 04B.GIRI 大爆發!CAT4突襲緬甸!

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发表于 2010-10-22 20:44 | 显示全部楼层
12UTC,JTWC:135kt
     
与CAT.5咫尺天涯。
   
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM。
发表于 2010-10-22 20:47 | 显示全部楼层
Kyaukpyu(19°25′N  93°33′E)   SLP 999.0hPa, ESE 20KT    at 10/22 06UTC.......
實兌(20°08′N   92°53′E)           SLP 994.3hPa,   NE 17KT    at 10/22 12UTC.......
      
传说中的7314会不会就长得跟Giri相似?!
发表于 2010-10-22 21:05 | 显示全部楼层
经典时刻!
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组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-22 21:34 | 显示全部楼层
Giri的地面天气雷达影像:
   

   
发表于 2010-10-22 21:58 | 显示全部楼层
注意该气旋正反馈华西秋雨,加上正好北方强冷空气南下,两者结合,西北地区东部和西南地区难逃低温阴雨,其中云贵高原东部局部地区可以入冬{:soso__10529469448933891738_2:}

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发表于 2010-10-23 00:05 | 显示全部楼层
135kt巅峰登陆存照。
        
WTIO31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 93.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 93.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 21.1N 94.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 22.7N 95.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 93.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221119Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
20 NM EYE WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYE-WALL. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
TC GIRI HAS INTENSIFIED BY OVER 50 KNOTS, INDICATIVE OF EXPLOSIVE
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
VICINITY OF HUNTERS BAY AND COMBERMERE BAY WITHIN TWO HOURS, AND
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF MAYANMAR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230300Z.//
NNNN
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-23 00:44 | 显示全部楼层
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



            TROPICAL STORM ‘GIRI’ ADVISORY NO ELEVEN ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 22nd  OCTOBER 2010 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 22nd  OCTOBER.



THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “GIRI” OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010 OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 19.80N AND LONG.93.50E CLOSE TO MYANMAR COAST ABOUT 100 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SITTWE(MYANMAR) AND 50 KM NORTHWEST OF KYAUKPYU (MYANMAR).



SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 950 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES EYE PATTERN. THE EYE DIAMETER WAS ABOUT 08 KM AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 5.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.0º N AND 21.0ºN AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 90.0º E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND   ( -800C) .



THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN SITTWE (48062) AND KYAUKPYU (48071) WITHIN A FEW HOURS. SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 180-190 KMPH GUSTING TO 210 KMPH WOULD OCCUR ALONG AND OFF ABOVE COAST AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.



BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:



DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

22-10-2010/1200
19.8/93.5
180-190 gusting to 210

22-10-2010/1800
20.5/94.0
110-120 gusting to 130

23-10-2010/0000
21.0/94.5
70-80 gusting to 90

23-10-2010/0600
22.0/95.5
50-60 gusting to 70

23-10-2010/1200
23.0/96.5
30-40 gusting to 50




STORM SURGE GUIDANCE

STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 3-4 METRES ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL NEAR  THE LANDFALL POINT.

REMARK

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (5-10 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS DECREASING TREND IN THE FORWARD SECTOR. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE HAVE SLIGHTLY REDUCED. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH LAND SURFACE. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER THE LANDFALL DUE TO ITS MOVEMENT OVER HILLY TERRAIN. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 180N AT 200 HPA LEVEL. THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION.


只有90KT,FT5.5。
发表于 2010-10-23 01:21 | 显示全部楼层
请教各位dx,它的登陆对云南会有什么影响?
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-23 02:11 | 显示全部楼层
38# HAOYANGZE


35樓已經有你想要的答案。

低温阴雨
发表于 2010-10-23 13:07 | 显示全部楼层
IMD已降格SCS,并将很快减弱为LPA,并停编,残余涡度进入云南。
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