04B.GIRI 大爆發！CAT4突襲緬甸！

北落师门 · 发表于 2010-10-21 19:51

BOB 04/2010/05                                                                                           Dated: 21.10.2010

Time of issue: 1400 hours IST

Sub: Cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral Bay of Bengal

         The deep depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary, intensified into a cyclonic storm “GIRI” and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 21st October 2010 over the same area near latitude 17.50N and 91.50E, about 350 km south-southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar), 450 km south of Cox Bazar (Bangladesh) and 650 km southeast of Digha (West Bengal, India).

         The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. It would move northwards initially and then north-northeastwards and cross north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts by tomorrow, the 22nd October 2010 evening between Teknaf (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) near Sittwe (Myanmar).

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

21-10-2010/1130
17.5/91.5
65-75 gusting to 85

21-10-2010/1730
18.0/91.5
75-85 gusting to 95

21-10-2010/2330
18.5/92.0
85-95 gusting to 105

22-10-2010/0530
19.0/92.5
95-105 gusting to 115

22-10-2010/1130
19.5/92.5
115-125 gusting to 135

22-10-2010/2330
20.5/93.5
95-105 gusting to 115

23-10-2010/1130
21.5/94.5
55-65 gusting to 75

23-10-2010/2330
22.5/95.5
35-45 gusting to 55



         Since the system is likely to move towards north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts, it is not expected to affect east coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. will be informed accordingly.

         As the system is not likely to affect Indian coast. The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of 21st October 2010.

北落师门 · 发表于 2010-10-21 21:37

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘GIRI’ ADVISORY NO. TWO ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 21ST OCTOBER 2010 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 21ST OCTOBER.

THE CYCLONIC STORM, GIRI OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY, AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST OCTOBER 2010 OVER THE SAME AREA NEAR LATITUDE 17.50N AND 91.50E, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITTWE (MYANMAR), 450 KM SOUTH OF COX BAZAR (BANGLADESH) AND 650 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL, INDIA).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 996 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN WITH FURTHER ORGANISATION. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.0º N AND 20.0ºN AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 88.0º E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -800C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. IT WOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH MYANMAR AND ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN TEKNAF, BANGLADESH(41998 ) AND KYAUKPYU, MYANMAR (48071) TO THE SOUTHEAST SITTWE BY 1200 UTC TOMORROW, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

21-10-2010/0900
17.5/91.5
70-80 GUSTING TO 90

21-10-2010/1200
18.0/92.0
80-90 GUSTING TO 100

21-10-2010/1800
18.5/92.5
90-100 GUSTING TO 110

22-10-2010/0000
19.0/93.0
100-110 GUSTING TO 125

22-10-2010/0600
19.5/93.5
110-120 GUSTING TO 135

22-10-2010/1200
20.0/94.0
110-120 GUSTING TO 135

23-10-2010/0000
21.0/95.0
55-65 GUSTING TO 75

23-10-2010/1200
22.0/96.0
35-45 GUSTING TO 55

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (280-320 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS THAN 100 KJ/CM2. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 180N AT 200 HPA LEVEL. THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL INDIA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL AND IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

sylar · 发表于 2010-10-21 22:34

TPIO01 PGTW 211245

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI)

B. 21/1130Z

C. 17.8N

D. 92.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .40 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF A 2.5. MET YIELDS A 2.5 BASED ON
CONSTRAINTS. PT YIELDS A 3.5. DT UNREPRESENTATIVE. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/0705Z 17.6N 91.8E MMHS

GATES
20101021_1240_f16_91pct91h91v_04B_GIRI_50kts_985mb_17_8N_92_1E_85pc.jpg

20101021_1240_f16_91pct91h91v_04B_GIRI_50kts_985mb_17_8N_92_1E_85pc.jpg

麻雀雖小五臟俱全

不排除以TY級別登陸緬甸

li0627 · 发表于 2010-10-21 23:35

低频微波扫描结果非常NICE，的确是“麻雀虽小，五脏俱全”。

缅甸应该会遭受到一个CY正面侵袭。相关水汽云带向下游推进，然后……

北落师门 · 发表于 2010-10-22 08:12

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM ‘GIRI’ ADVISORY NO FIVE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 21ST OCTOBER 2010 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 21ST OCTOBER.

THE CYCLONIC STORM “GIRI” OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF THE 21ST OCTOBER 2010 OVER THE SAME AREA CENTRED NEAR LAT. 18.00N AND LONG. 92.00E, ABOUT 250 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITTWE (48062), 350 KM SOUTH OF TEKNAF (41998 ) AND 600 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (42901).

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 990 HPA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BANDING PATTERN WITH FURTHER ORGANISATION. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 3.0 ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 15.5º N AND 19.5ºN AND LONGITUDE EAST OF 91.0º E.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND ( -70 TO -800C) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

STORM SURGE AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL IS EXPECTED 2-3 METERS NEAR THE LANDFALL POINT.

THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. IT WOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH MYANMAR AND ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN TEKNAF, BANGLADESH (41998) AND KYAUKPYU, MYANMAR (48071) BETWEEN 1200 UTC AND 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 22ND OCTOBER 2010.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

DATE/TIME(UTC)
POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

21-10-2010/1800
18.0/92.0
80-90 gusting to 100

22-10-2010/0000
18.5/92.5
90-100 gusting to 110

22-10-2010/0600
19.0/93.0
100-110 gusting to 120

22-10-2010/1200
19.5/93.5
110-120 gusting to 135

22-10-2010/1800
20.0/94.0
110-120 gusting to 135

23-10-2010/0600
21.5/95.0
55-65 gusting to 75

23-10-2010/1800
22.5/96.0
35-45 gusting to 55

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOUR TENDENCY OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWS DECREASING TREND AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (280-300 C), AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS THAN 100 KJ/CM2. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 180N AT 200 HPA LEVEL. THERE IS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL INDIA TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVEL AND IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

sylar · 发表于 2010-10-22 13:03

04B.GIRI.85kts.959mb.18.5N.92.6E

SSD：22/0230 UTC 18.6N 92.8E T6.0/6.0 GIRI -- Bay of Bengal

Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
201010220000 18.5 92.6 85
201010211800 18.2 92.4 70
201010211200 17.8 92.1 50
201010210600 17.5 91.8 45
201010210000 17.4 91.5 35

雙急流下，GIRI一天內大爆發至CAT2，幸好已經即將登陸，不然，又一大氣象災害

20101022_0114_f16_91pct91h91v_04B_GIRI_85kts_959mb_18_5N_92_6E_62pc.jpg

iceperple · 发表于 2010-10-22 14:12

这眼睛……一天爆发出这个眼的，罕见啊……

sylar · 发表于 2010-10-22 14:55

TPIO01 PGTW 220614

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI)

B. 22/0530Z

C. 18.9N

D. 93.0E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 25NM SMALL DG EYE WITH LG SURR
YIELDS A 5.0 PLUS .5 EYE ADJ YIELDS A DT OF A 5.5. MET YIELDS A
5.0 BASED ON CONSTRAINTS. PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
22/0107Z  18.4N  92.6E  AMSU
22/0114Z  18.4N  92.6E  SSMS

GATES

li0627 · 发表于 2010-10-22 15:13

猛烈爆发，一夜旋风。

如果不是前方已经是陆地……

孟加拉湾虽然也和南海一样狭小，但是孕育的气旋的爆发能力实在惊人。

sylar · 发表于 2010-10-22 15:26

04B.GIRI.100kts.948mb.18.9N.93E

只用了30小時，CAT3了。看來今晚20時的強度還有提升空間

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[北印度洋] 04B.GIRI 大爆發！CAT4突襲緬甸！