世纪气象云

 找回密码
 注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

查看: 7081|回复: 23
收起左侧

[西太台风] 西太远洋16W——暹芭的胚胎,JMA:GW

 关闭 [复制链接]
发表于 2010-10-16 03:21 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2010年10月西太热带扰动95W

世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明

報告人:dnt02
所屬團隊:21cma
擾動編号:95W
編号時間:20101015.1800z
初始強度:15kts.1010mb
擾動定位:15.6N.169.5E(查看位置:TC Google Map)
存在區域:威克島東南近海

1、系統結構分析:風場掃描低層環流結構普通;雲圖對流良好
2、系統環境分析:低層輻合狀態微弱;高空輻散狀態良好;系統所處垂直風切中等;渦度差;系統所處海表溫度 29C
3、系統現狀其他分析: 無
數值預報:部份機構支持發展
個人評估:發展機會低
备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见: 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有,未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-19 11:21 | 显示全部楼层
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 17N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.
发表于 2010-10-20 11:24 | 显示全部楼层
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
148.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.3N 148.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 147.8E. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALSO, A 192055Z
37GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN, ROTA, AND GUAM SHOW 24 HR
PRESSURE FALLS OF 4MB, 3MB, 2MB RESPECTIVELY. THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION OVER THE MARIANAS ISLANDS
HAS WEAKENED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RETREATING TUTT CELL, ALLOWING
IMPROVEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
发表于 2010-10-20 11:28 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 148E WEST 10 KT.
发表于 2010-10-20 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
GW!!!!
   
24小时内,暹芭即将出世。
   
熱帯低気圧
平成22年10月20日16時25分 発表
<20日15時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
中心位置 北緯 15度55分(15.9度)
東経 146度50分(146.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<21日15時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 16度00分(16.0度)
東経 142度00分(142.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-20 15:47 | 显示全部楼层
1014号台风暹芭,做好接班准备。期待下一个超大型猛烈。
发表于 2010-10-20 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
“鲇鱼”还在南海徘徊之际,远洋马绍尔一带“暹芭”的雏形已现--95W

EC长期演算结果:“暹芭”趋向台湾!{:soso__6679659975212726607_4:}
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-10-20 18:54 | 显示全部楼层
WTPN21 PGTW 200930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 148.1E TO 16.7N 140.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 146.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS SUSTAINED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. OBSERVATIONS FROM
SAIPAN INDICATE A 4 MB DROP IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. ALSO, A 200346Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CURVED
BANDING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
TO THE WEST OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL THAT
IS PROVIDING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH IS SUPPRESSING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC MODELS
INDICATE A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES WITH THE
SYSTEM'S REORIENTATION TO THE TUTT CELLS IN THE AREA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY
210930Z.//
NNNN
wp952010_20101020090211.gif
发表于 2010-10-20 20:12 | 显示全部楼层
16W即将诞生,刷JMA的CI ing。
     
20日晚上,1014号台风暹芭会诞生么?
发表于 2010-10-20 20:38 | 显示全部楼层
NAMELESS 18160 11458 14194 215// 92510=
   
CI=1.5,命名的话就是奇迹了。明天继续追击。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|世纪气象云 | | | 关于我们

GMT+8, 2024-4-24 21:43 , Processed in 0.029611 second(s), 21 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表