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[气候监测] 2010年9月南方涛动指数刷新30年记录

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发表于 2010-10-1 13:32 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
按1887-1989年距平基准,2010年9月南方涛动指数(SOI)为25.8,刷新30年气候周期原记录:1988年11月SOI 22.0。

1887年以来,SOI观测历史上一高值于1973年11月创造(31.5),再上的高值,已经是1917年的8月(33.1)。

按目前海气数值和实况,预计,SOI将继续上升,直逼百年高值。
  
说明:SOI正值对应拉尼娜,表示冷信号。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-1 13:35 | 显示全部楼层
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-16 03:17 | 显示全部楼层
澳洲气象局10月13日报告:

Southern Oscillation Index:
The SOI has continued to remained firmly positive and similar in value over the last two weeks. The latest (11 October) 30-day SOI value is +23. The monthly value for September was +25; the highest monthly value recorded since November 1973 and the highest September value recorded since 1917. The SOI has been consistently positive since early April.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-2 23:13 | 显示全部楼层
12月SOI再次冲上巅峰,月均为26.4。

不仅刷新30年记录,这是1876年有SOI记录以来,12月份的SOI新纪录,连清朝都成为浮云。
 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-2 23:18 | 显示全部楼层
关于怎么刷的,大家要学会自己查数据,自己分析,即是“独裁”。

老鸟可以写一帖来分享一下{:soso_e113:}
发表于 2011-1-5 11:18 | 显示全部楼层
12月SOI达到27,这次拉尼娜果然再创纪录了

A major La Niña event continues to affect the Pacific Basin. Long-range forecast models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that the La Niña is likely to persist into the southern hemisphere autumn.

All climate indicators of ENSO remain beyond La Niña thresholds. The tropical Pacific Ocean remains much cooler than average for this time of year, with temperatures below the surface up to 4 °C below normal in central and eastern parts (comparable to the La Niña event of 1988). Trade winds are stronger than average, while cloud patterns continue to show a typical La Niña signature with suppressed cloudiness in tropical areas near the dateline. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value for December of +27 is the highest December SOI value on record, as well as being the highest value for any month since November 1973.
 楼主| 发表于 2011-1-11 14:35 | 显示全部楼层
海气再次进入高位振荡,三峰拉尼娜渐现

http://www.21cma.net/thread-9039-1-1.html
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