SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ABOUT 235 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD RESULT IN
THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Subtropical Depression SEVENTEEN Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 060837
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
500 AM AST WED OCT 06 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED BANDS OF DEEP AND CURVED CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION...NIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED SINCE
YESTERDAY. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A TROPICAL 2.0 FROM
TAFB...AND A SUBTROPICAL 1.5 FROM TAFB. WHILE THE LOW IS NOT FAR
FROM BEING MORE TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...ITS CURRENT LARGE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AT LEAST 120 N MI...AND ITS ENTANGLEMENT
WITH AN UPPER LOW LEAD ME TO START THE SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WINDS ARE SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH
A FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
DEPRESSION TO MOVE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT LOW...WHICH WOULD
PLACE IT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRENGTHENING WITH LIGHTER
WIND SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE MODELS
WEAKEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS
LIKELY IN A DAY OR SO. BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BECAUSE IT COULD
TAKE SOME TIME TO SHED ALL OF ITS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...
WHICH WILL PROBABLY HALT ANY STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
INITIAL SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE...AND IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM.
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 325/7. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LARGE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE ERODED AWAY
IN A DAY OR TWO BY A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO SLOW DOWN BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE BY EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
OVERALL THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD FOR A WEAK SYSTEM AND
THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SEEMS LIKELY BY 96 HR...IF NOT
SOONER...AS DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
000
URNT12 KNHC 062141
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172010
A. 06/21:20:40Z
B. 23 deg 04 min N
068 deg 15 min W
C. NA
D. 40 kt
E. 312 deg 69 nm
F. 017 deg 42 kt
G. 312 deg 69 nm
H. EXTRAP 992 mb
I. 22 C / 458 m
J. 24 C / 457 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 01
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0117A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 68 KT SE QUAD 21:31:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WINDS VISUALLY 60 KTS ADJACENT TO STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND
Tropical Storm OTTO Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 072035
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
500 PM AST THU OCT 07 2010
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70C TO
-80C HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHEAR PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN T3.0/45 KT AND T3.5/55 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH
A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF
OTTO...LOWER CIRRUS CLOUD ELEMENTS CAN BE SEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER IN VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH
IS CREATING SOME MODEST UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS ON THE CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/05. OTTO IS COMING UNDER THE
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED
EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND STEADILY ACCELERATE OTTO
TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...OTTO IS
EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AND GALE AREA THAT COULD AFFECT THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 96 TO
120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE
OTTO REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS AND ALSO MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 24 AND 36
HOURS...AND THAT IS WHEN OTTO COULD POSSIBLY REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. BY 72
HOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR OF 35-40
KT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...OTTO IS
EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA BY THAT TIME...AND THE
INFUSION OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
Hurricane-1 OTTO (06-08 OCT)
Storm - Max Winds: 70 Min Pres: 976 Category: 1
Current - Max Winds: 70 Min Pres: 976 Category: 1
HURRICANE OTTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
2100 UTC FRI OCT 08 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 62.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 170SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 360SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Tropical Storm OTTO
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ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OTTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1500 UTC SUN OCT 10 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 41.1W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 90SE 45SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 180SE 120SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 660SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 41.1W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 42.8W
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 42.6N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 43.0N 26.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 150SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 41.5N 24.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 37.0N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 75SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 36.0N 20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 41.1W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OTTO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON OTTO CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND BY METEO-FRANCE
UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.
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发表于 2010-10-6 18:57
发表于 2010-10-9 10:58
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