2010年10月北大西洋17L--OTTO

北落师门

2010年10月北大西洋热带扰动97L



世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：免责声明
2010年10月中北太97L

报告人：北落师门
所属团队：21cma
扰动编号：97L
编号时间：30 SEP 2010 0600Z
初始强度：25kts.1009mb
扰动定位：13.1N.43.2W（查看位置：TC Google Map）
存在区域：北大西洋
1、系统结构分析：风场扫描低层环流结构一般，多频微波结构一般；云图螺旋一般
2、系统环境分析：辐合状态一般；辐散状态差；系统所处垂直风切正减弱；系统所处海表温度 2８－2９C
3、系统现状其他分析： 無
数值预报：部分支持发展
个人评估：无
  XX

备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---


1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国国家飓风中心（NHC），采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见：追击台风的基本知识

北落师门

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALSO
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Murilo

这一阶段大西洋的热带气旋甚是活跃，不断有热带气旋编号命名
剛才走了一個NICOLE,加勒比海以東又有新的熱帶波動出現，並且表現出了一定的發展趨勢
EC再度報出2個熱帶系統在加勒比一帶發展。。。。。:y7

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICOLE...LOCATED
ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...AND WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER RAIN
SQUALLS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALSO
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

dnt02

1. A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

dnt02

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

2. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA.

sylar

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO.

dnt02

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.

2. A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

sylar

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

北落师门

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

北落师门

副高断裂了，系统预计将转向，加强，目前正影响背风群岛。