2010年9月西北太12W(1011凡亞比之胚胎)

北落师门

2010年9月西太平洋热带扰动94W



世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：免责声明


报告人：北落师门
所属团队：21cma
扰动编号：94W
编号时间：13 SEP 2010 0000Z
初始强度：15kts.1010mb
扰动定位：16.1N.137.0E（查看位置：TC Google Map）
存在区域：西北太平洋
1、系统结构分析：风场扫描低层环流结构一般，多频微波结构一般；云图螺旋一般
2、系统环境分析：辐合状态一般；辐散状态差；系统所处垂直风切微弱；系统所处海表温度 2８－2９C
3、系统现状其他分析： 無
数值预报：部分支持发展
个人评估：无
  XX

备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---


1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心（JTWC），采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见：追击台风的基本知

dnt02

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 135.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 131136Z METOP-A IMAGE
SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE 131134Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE BUILDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

北落师门

三、低氣壓１００８百帕，在北緯１３度，東經１２９度
，即在菲律賓東方海面，中心近似滯留。

北落师门

美军分析出FT1.5了，评级为good。

dnt02

........

cwnraul

WTPN21 PGTW 140630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 130.8E TO 20.4N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 140530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3N 130.6E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N
132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132313Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. A OOO5Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20 KNOT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150630Z.//

li0627

JMA：没有反应，倒是将南海的97W定为LPA。

Murilo

94W头顶高空反气旋，幅散良好，发展快速，螺旋性明显:y6

win107123

最新微波，中心似乎处于对流的南侧

北落师门

这是2个卫星拍摄的，叠加图不准的，2个卫星拍摄角度不同。时间也不同。