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[北大西洋] 2010年9月北大西洋12L -- JULIA

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发表于 2010-9-11 20:46 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
2010年9月北大西洋热带扰动93L



世纪气象热带气旋报告单,只供参考交流,详见:免责声明
2010年8月中北太93L

报告人:北落师门
所属团队:21cma
扰动编号:92L
编号时间:11 SEP 2010 1200Z
初始强度:20kts.1008mb
扰动定位:12.6N.13.3W(查看位置:TC Google Map)
存在区域:佛得角以东西非沿岸
1、系统结构分析:风场扫描低层环流结构一般,多频微波结构一般;云图螺旋一般
2、系统环境分析:辐合状态一般;辐散状态差;系统所处垂直风切一般;系统所处海表温度 28-29C
3、系统现状其他分析: 無
数值预报:部分支持发展
个人评估:无
  XX

备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---


1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国国家飓风中心(NHC),采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节(knot)”的英文缩写,复数形式KTS,1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见:追击台风的基本知识
sm20100911_0800_f16_x_vis1km_high_93LINVEST_20kts-1008mb-126N-133W_100pc.jpg
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-12 10:02 | 显示全部楼层
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
发表于 2010-9-12 12:57 | 显示全部楼层
大西洋目前出现了4个有发展机会的系统
EC数值支持93L,目前位于西非海岸,佛得角群岛一带,并且NRL发出了TCFA

93L--IR图

93L--IR图


TCFA--93L

TCFA--93L


two_atl.gif

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1140 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.    ----92L

2. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE WATCHES OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  -----93L

3. SHOWERS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.-----位于百慕大群岛东部的锋面系统中衍生出来的弱低气压系统

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-12 21:19 | 显示全部楼层
NHC12UTC分析出FT2.0,升AL122010。
发表于 2010-9-13 01:06 | 显示全部楼层
30kts,少許爆發,有待鞏固整合。
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-13 11:11 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 130248
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CURVED BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT
FROM SAB.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMMS ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER.  A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE
DEPRESSION TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2010
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DURING THAT TIME JULIA WILL BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER AND AS A
RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...
AND GFDL MODELS ALL BRING JULIA TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN TWO DAYS
AND THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THEREAFTER...JULIA WILL
BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN
AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.  IT IS A BIT SURPRISING
GIVEN THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE...IF ANY...WEAKENING.  BECAUSE OF THAT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL KEEP JULIA AT 65 KT AT DAYS 3-5 FOR NOW.

THE CENTER OF JULIA WAS RELOCATED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION BASED ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS JULIA
MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CUTS OFF
NEAR 40W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...
UKMET...GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      13/0300Z 13.5N  23.5W    35 KT
12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  25.3W    45 KT
24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.9N  27.6W    50 KT
36HR VT     14/1200Z 15.9N  29.5W    55 KT
48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.1N  31.1W    65 KT
72HR VT     16/0000Z 20.9N  35.1W    65 KT
96HR VT     17/0000Z 24.5N  41.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N  46.5W    65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
发表于 2010-9-13 21:34 | 显示全部楼层
照例上图
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-14 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 140255
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
1100 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010

A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DESPITE THE IMPROVED
PRESENTATION...DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 45 KT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED FOR NOW.  THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A 2324 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT
WIND VECTORS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11 KT.  JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER JULIA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A DIRECTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON WHEN THE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS/GFDL ARE ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TVCN
CONSENSUS AND THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC ADVISORY.

JULIA WILL BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE BRING THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THAT TIME AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW
FROM IGOR WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON JULIA.  AS A RESULT...
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0300Z 15.6N  28.0W    45 KT
12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.3N  29.4W    55 KT
24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N  31.1W    65 KT
36HR VT     15/1200Z 19.1N  32.7W    70 KT
48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.1N  35.1W    70 KT
72HR VT     17/0000Z 24.3N  40.9W    65 KT
96HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N  46.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 31.5N  50.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-14 19:36 | 显示全部楼层
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 140837
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

JULIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS
OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR THAT VALUE.  ON THIS BASIS...JULIA IS
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SPEED SET AT 65 KT.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN 24
TO 48 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WARMER
WATERS BEYOND A FEW DAYS...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
JULIA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN THE 3 TO 5
DAY RANGE...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 16.1N  29.0W    65 KT
12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N  30.1W    70 KT
24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.1N  31.7W    80 KT
36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.7N  33.6W    80 KT
48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N  36.1W    75 KT
72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N  42.5W    70 KT
96HR VT     18/0600Z 27.5N  48.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 32.0N  51.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

在30W以东加强为hurricane,比较罕见。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-15 05:47 | 显示全部楼层
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 142036
TCDAT2
HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
ASYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAVING FORMED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
EYE THAT WAS VISIBLE EARLIER IS ALSO NO LONGER AS EVIDENT. THE
OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...INDICATIVE OF
SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALREADY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.
DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 1800 UTC ARE UNCHANGED FROM 1200 UTC...WHILE
THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS AT 4.6. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS SLOWED A BIT FURTHER...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
UKMET...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE
CONCERNING THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY COURSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.
FROM 24-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JULIA SHOULD TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BEYOND THAT
TIME...JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD ONCE IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT AGAIN
USING A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET BUT HAS SHIFTED A
BIT TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW OF
HURRICANE IGOR...MAY ALREADY BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTING JULIA.  SHIPS
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AT THE SAME TIME JULIA TRAVERSES MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER WARMER WATERS AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR ADVERSELY AFFECTING JULIA.  ALTHOUGH
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST...
JULIA COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF THE PREDICTED SHEAR
MATERIALIZES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/2100Z 16.7N  30.2W    75 KT
12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.8N  31.4W    80 KT
24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N  33.1W    80 KT
36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.3N  35.7W    75 KT
48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.8N  39.1W    70 KT
72HR VT     17/1800Z 25.0N  46.0W    70 KT
96HR VT     18/1800Z 29.1N  50.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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