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Tropical Cyclone Information Statements WOCN31 CWHX 040300
Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 12.00 PM ADT
Saturday 04 September 2010.
The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT
At 12.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude
40.0 N and longitude 69.7 W... About 75 nautical miles or 140 km
south southeast of Nantucket .
Earl is moving towards the northeast at 22 knots... 54
Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 60 to 65
Knots... 100 to 120 km/h and central pressure at 958 MB.
Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.
End campbell
WOCN31 CWHX 040019 CCA
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.19 PM ADT Friday
03 September 2010.
Note obvious error to speed of Earl, should read 20 knots.
At 9.00 PM ADT, hurricane Earl was located near latitude 39.1 N
And longitude 70.8 W, about 130 nautical miles or 245 km
South southwest of Nantucket . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 70 knots, 130 km/h, and central pressure at 961
MB. Earl is moving northeast at 20 knots, 37 km/h.
End campbell
WOCN31 CWHX 040000
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 9.00 PM ADT Friday
03 September 2010.
The next statement will be issued by 12.00 AM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 9.00 PM ADT, hurricane Earl was located near latitude 39.1 N
And longitude 70.8 W, about 130 nautical miles or 245 km
South southwest of Nantucket . Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 70 knots, 130 km/h, and central pressure at 961
MB. Earl is moving northeast at 203 knots, 37 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 03 9.00 PM 39.1N 70.8W 961 70 130
Sep 04 3.00 AM 41.5N 68.7W 965 65 130
Sep 04 9.00 AM 43.6N 66.7W 972 65 120 transitioning
Sep 04 3.00 PM 45.9N 64.5W 976 60 111 transitioning
Sep 04 9.00 PM 48.2N 62.8W 980 55 102 post-tropical
Sep 05 3.00 AM 50.6N 61.3W 981 55 102 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 AM 52.5N 60.1W 983 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 05 3.00 PM 54.5N 59.3W 985 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 PM 55.9N 58.5W 986 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 AM 57.1N 57.9W 987 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.00 AM 58.4N 57.8W 988 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 PM 59.3N 58.7W 990 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.00 PM 59.7N 59.9W 992 35 65 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane watches remain in effect for Halifax, Lunenburg, Queens,
Shelburne, Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia. In addition
tropical storm warnings are in effect for all of mainland Nova
Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la
Madeleine and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick including Moncton and
Southeast New Brunswick.
These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind
warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed
Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come
down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power
failures. There could also be some damage to signage, roofing
materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a
concern which could exacerbate these impacts.
Rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the region with
either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates.
The uncertainty in the timing of the storm's arrival is about plus
Or minus 3 hours.
Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to
some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure, although the tides
are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane warnings are in effect for Lurcher and Browns Bank in the
southwest Maritimes marine district. Gales or storms are in effect
for many other portions of that district. Gales are in effect for
Western Newfoundland waters.
With the arrival of Earl, high waves and pounding surf can be
expected primarily along south and southeast-facing coastlines.
The threat of storm surge flooding is not great for regions around
the Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge
threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia, and the southern gulf
Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait.
5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists
A. Analysis
The wind field associated with Earl is very large and central
pressure very low for a category-one hurricane (961 MB). Wind field
was sampled on the eastern side by ascat imagery earlier today. The
centre of the hurricane is still over near 26 degree water. Dry
Air is moving around the southern side of the storm. Convection
remains relatively deep near the centre based on ir satellite
imagery.
B. Prognostic
Even though Earl will likely be a marginal category 1 hurricane at
landfall, its wind field will be spread over a greater area. Also
The abnormally hot and humid airmass over the Maritimes will allow
Earl to hold onto its tropical character. Water temperatures over
which the highest winds of the storm will travel are running 2 to 4
degrees above normal. Therefore, the buffering affect of the usually
cooler waters may be less with this storm. Thus, gusty winds,
possibly hurricane force, could overspread Nova Scotia with the wind
flow off the water from the south.
An upper trough/cold front over the Ohio Valley is approaching the
western periphery of Earl and will guide it toward the Maritimes.
C. Public weather
Asymmetries in the wind and rain fields will develop tonight as Earl
approaches. Heaviest rain will likely move toward the front and left
side of the storm with the highest winds concentrated to the right
Of the storm track. Some computer models show a band of rain
extending east of the storm into Newfoundland as Earl nears, similar
to a warm front development.
Regarding rainfall potential, for a storm of this nature, 2500
divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for
rainfalls associated with the storm core. That roughly equates to
40 to 70 mm potential. These amounts are generally in line with
The output of latest dynamical models.
D. Marine weather
Wave models plus forecaster experience suggest that seas of 10
Metres are possible along the southern portion of Nova Scotia.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
04/00Z 210 220 160 140 110 130 100 90 60 60 50 40
04/06Z 210 220 160 130 110 130 90 80 50 50 35 25
04/12Z 210 220 160 120 100 110 75 70 35 40 20 10
04/18Z 220 220 160 110 90 100 70 70 0 0 0 0
05/00Z 240 240 210 100 90 80 60 50 0 0 0 0
05/06Z 270 300 300 100 60 60 40 40 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 300 300 300 100 40 60 40 30 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 300 300 300 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 300 300 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 270 270 270 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 240 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 220 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
07/00Z 200 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End fogarty/borgel/campbell
WOCN31 CWHX 032100
Hurricane Earl intermediate information statement issued by the
Canadian Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 6.00 PM ADT
Friday 03 September 2010.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
At 6.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude
38.2 N and longitude 71.8 W... About 205 nautical miles or 375 km
south-southwest of Cape Cod.
Earl is moving towards the north northeast at 18 knots... 34
Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 70 knots... 130
Km/h and central pressure at 961 MB.
Public and marine interests are advised to monitor forecasts
And warnings issued for their region by Environment Canada.
End fogarty/borgel
WOCN31 CWHX 031800
Hurricane Earl information statement issued by the canadian
Hurricane centre of Environment Canada at 3.00 PM ADT Friday
03 September 2010.
Large hurricane Earl heading toward the Maritimes.
The next statement will be issued by 9.00 PM ADT
1. Current position, strength, central pressure and motion
At 3.00 PM ADT... Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 37.5 N
And longitude 72.5 W... About 250 nautical miles or 465 km
South southwest of Cape Cod. Maximum sustained winds are
Estimated at 70 knots... 130 km/h... And central pressure at 961
MB. Earl is moving north northeast at 18 knots... 33 km/h.
2. Forecast position, central pressure and strength
Date time lat lon MSLP Max wind
ADT MB kts kmh
Sep 03 3.00 PM 37.5N 72.5W 961 70 130
Sep 03 9.00 PM 40.4N 70.1W 962 70 130
Sep 04 3.00 AM 42.0N 68.5W 965 70 130
Sep 04 9.00 AM 43.9N 66.6W 972 65 120 transitioning
Sep 04 3.00 PM 46.4N 64.1W 976 60 111 transitioning
Sep 04 9.00 PM 48.7N 62.4W 980 55 102 post-tropical
Sep 05 3.00 AM 51.1N 61.1W 981 55 102 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 AM 53.1N 60.1W 983 50 93 post-tropical
Sep 05 3.00 PM 54.6N 59.1W 985 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 05 9.00 PM 56.0N 58.3W 986 45 83 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 AM 57.1N 57.9W 987 40 74 post-tropical
Sep 06 9.00 AM 58.4N 57.8W 988 35 65 post-tropical
Sep 06 3.00 PM 59.3N 58.7W 990 35 65 post-tropical
3. Public weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane watches remain in effect for Halifax..Lunenburg..Queens..
Shelburne..Yarmouth and Digby counties of Nova Scotia. In addition
tropical storm warnings are now in effect for all of mainland Nova
Scotia, Cape Breton Island, Prince Edward Island, iles de la
Madeleine and the Fundy coast of New Brunswick including Moncton and
Southeast New Brunswick.
Tropical storm watches have been extended to Kent County in New
Brunswick including Kouchibouguac National Park.
These tropical warnings are matched with corresponding public wind
warnings for gusts between 90 and 110 km/h. Gusts of this speed
Could cause tree branches and limbs to break and some trees to come
down. That could result in downed utility lines and related power
Failures. There could also be some damage to signage..Roofing
materials and building cladding. Gusts possibly to 130 km/h remain a
concern which could exacerbate these impacts.
Rainfall warnings are in effect for many portions of the region with
either 50+ mm in total or 25 mm/hr rates.
The uncertainty in the timing of the storm's arrival is about plus
Or minus 4 hours.
Wave impacts at the coast in the hurricane watch area could lead to
Some beach erosion and damage to infrastructure..Although the tides
are running low (neap) and the arrival time may be near low tide.
4. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary
Hurricane warnings now posted for Lurcher and Browns Bank. For the
Maritime marine district.. Storms or gales issued for remianing
waters except Laurentian fan and the western half of Anticosti.
Over the Newfoundland marine district..Gale warnings have been
Posted for most western waters.
With the arrival of Earl high waves and pounding surf can be
Expected primarily along south and southeast-facing coastlines.
The threat of storm surge flooding is not great for regions around
the Bay of Fundy due to a run of neap tides. The greatest surge
Threat will be over Southwest Nova Scotia..And the southern gulf
Of St Lawrence which includes the Northumberland strait
5. Technical discussion for meteorlogists
A. Analysis
Goes and microwave imagery indicates increasing assymetry in Earl
with some evidence of drier air wrapping into its southern flank.
However it is developing in increasingly large wind field. A 1400Z
ascat scan shows gales over 200 NM in the southeast quadrant.
Observational data show this large wind field as well.
B. Prognostic
Despite Earl's Max winds weakening to cat 1 intensity earlier
Today..As previously mentioned indications are that Earl's wind
Field is expanding. Even though Earl will likely be a marginal
category 1 hurricane at landfall, its wind field will be spread over
a greater area. Also the abnormally hot and humid airmass over the
Maritimes will allow Earl to hold onto its tropical character. Water
temperatures ahead of Earl are above normal by 2 to 4 degrees and
have been persistently warm during the latter part of August. These
two factors come into play in the intensity of winds reaching Nova
Scotia.
The approaching trough and developing upper low over the
Great Lakes remains a significant factor in Earl's track.
C. Public weather
Asymmetries in the wind and rain fields will develop as the storm
moves toward the Maritimes. Heaviest rain will likely move toward
The front and left side of the storm with the highest winds
concentrated to the right of the storm track. Some computer
Models show a band of rain extending east of the storm into
Newfoundland as Earl nears..Similar to a warm front development.
Regarding rainfall potential..For a storm of this nature..2500
divided by twice the storm speed in knots is a rule of thumb for
rainfalls associated with the storm core. That roughly equates to
40 to 70 mm potential. These amounts are generally in line with
The output of latest dynamical models.
D. Marine weather
Wave models plus forecaster experience show that 10 metre or more
seas along the southeast flank of Earl is reasonable.
Predicted wind radii (NM)
Time gales storms hurricane
Ne se sw nw ne se sw nw ne se sw nw
03/18Z 200 220 150 150 100 110 100 100 60 60 60 45
04/00Z 200 200 150 140 100 110 100 90 60 60 50 40
04/06Z 210 210 150 130 100 110 90 80 50 50 35 25
04/12Z 210 210 150 120 100 120 75 70 35 40 20 10
04/18Z 220 220 160 110 100 140 60 60 0 0 0 0
05/00Z 240 240 210 100 90 80 60 50 0 0 0 0
05/06Z 270 300 300 100 60 60 40 40 0 0 0 0
05/12Z 300 300 300 100 40 60 40 30 0 0 0 0
05/18Z 300 300 300 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/00Z 300 300 300 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/06Z 270 270 270 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/12Z 240 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
06/18Z 220 220 220 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
End fogarty/borgel
CHC这次还是没听NHC的。 |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-8-31 10:49
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发表于 2010-9-1 12:42
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发表于 2010-9-1 13:34
发表于 2010-9-2 09:17
