2010年6月東太平洋04E-CELIA

sylar

2010年東太平洋热带扰动94E

世纪气象热带气旋报告单，只供参考交流，详见：免责声明

  报告人：sylar
所属团队：21cma
扰动编号：94E
编号时间：19 JUN 2010 0215Z
初始强度：25kts.1010mb
扰动定位：13.5N.96W（查看位置：TC Google Map）
存在区域：東太平洋
1、系统结构分析：风场扫描低层环流结构良好；多频微波结构較差；云图螺旋性良好
  2、系统环境分析：辐合状态一般；辐散状态良好；系统所处垂直风切微弱；系统所处海表温度 ２７Ｃ－２８Ｃ
3、系统现状其他分析： 無
数值预报：EC。GFS發展機會較高
个人评估：無
  XX

备注 Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

1、热带扰动初始信息来自美国海军联合台风警报中心（JTWC），采用一分钟平均风速。
  2、KT是航海速度单位“节（knot）”的英文缩写，复数形式KTS，1KT=0.5144m/s。
3、更多基础知识请见： 追击台风的基本知识
世纪气象版权所有，未经许可不得盗用模板和转载。转载时请写明出处、作者和网址。


AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

lmk915

升格04E
预计上飓风等级

Murilo

命名为04E--CELIA

dnt02

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CELIA DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AROUND 3.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A EYE
BEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN THE CDO...BUT BOTH THE SHIPS AND UW-CIMMS
ANALYZE ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE EAST OR
NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER CELIA IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF NEAR 100 KT IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.  SOME
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAY 5...AS CELIA WILL LIKELY BE
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE
GFDN SHOWS CELIA REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INITIAL      20/1500Z 11.9N 100.0W    55 KT
12HR VT     21/0000Z 11.7N 101.0W    65 KT
24HR VT     21/1200Z 11.6N 102.3W    75 KT
36HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.4W    80 KT
48HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 104.7W    85 KT
72HR VT     23/1200Z 12.3N 107.8W    95 KT
96HR VT     24/1200Z 13.5N 111.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    90 KT
預測成為2010東太首個Major Hurricane

dnt02

CELIA IS EXHIBITING A RATHER CIRCULAR-LOOKING COLD-TOPPED CDO
FEATURE WITH MINIMAL BANDING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS
TIME.  AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES BUT AN
EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS OF THE HURRICANE...FROM JUST AFTER 0000
UTC...DID SHOW A SMALL EYE.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB....USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...REMAIN AT 5.0...
CORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND IS
OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE
SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DIAGNOSES VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE GFS FORECAST
OUTPUT...INDICATES THAT THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER CELIA
SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST PREDICTS STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AND IS NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE SHIPS/LGEM FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
MODEL DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO LATER IN THE PERIOD.  SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER SOON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
INTENSIFIES CELIA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATISTICALLY-BASED INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  BY DAYS 4-5...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES UNDER CELIA ARE LIKELY TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

INITIAL      22/0900Z 11.8N 104.7W    90 KT
12HR VT     22/1800Z 11.9N 105.9W   100 KT
24HR VT     23/0600Z 12.1N 107.6W   105 KT
36HR VT     23/1800Z 12.3N 109.6W   105 KT
48HR VT     24/0600Z 12.6N 111.8W   100 KT
72HR VT     25/0600Z 13.7N 116.0W    90 KT
96HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W    80 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W    60 KT

威尼斯0519

04ECELIA.90kts-971mb-123N-1109W
上望CAT4

Murilo

。。。。

dnt02

CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN NOW SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE WARMER AND MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT
WAS EARLIER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 6.0/115 KT AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR 6.0.
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
TO 115 KT...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE

INITIAL      24/2100Z 12.8N 114.7W   115 KT
12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.4N 116.4W   120 KT
24HR VT     25/1800Z 14.1N 118.4W   110 KT

威尼斯0519

04ECELIA.115kts-948mb-126N-1142W

phoonfan

INITIAL      25/0300Z 13.1N 115.9W   140 KT{:6_295:}