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[气候监测] 2010-2011年ENSO監察專帖

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发表于 2011-3-2 10:34 | 显示全部楼层
82# iceperple


秘鲁寒流比较宽广,年际变化很大,有的年份可影响到160W的南太平洋区域。弱的年份只能影响到120W附近。
发表于 2011-3-2 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
81# lx008


德雷克海峡的观测点很少,数据不完善,很多数据是卫星反演而成,有误差。此外德雷克海峡的海温不完全能代表东南太平洋的海温情况。
发表于 2011-3-3 20:15 | 显示全部楼层
La Niña continues to weaken in the tropical Pacific

Issued on Wednesday 2 March 2011 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
澳洲气象局估计拉尼娜在1月份已见顶,不过2月份的soi创了该月份的历史新高,不过也受台风因素影响。模型估计拉尼娜在6~7月消失
The La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean continues to weaken after reaching peak intensity in early January. Pacific Ocean temperatures along the equator, particularly those below the surface, have warmed over the past month. This warming has markedly reduced the strength and volume of the cool water that has been present during the previous nine months. Current observations in the Pacific Ocean are consistent with the breakdown phase of La Niña events. In some contrast, atmospheric indicators of the La Niña, including trade winds, cloudiness and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remain strong, with the February value of the SOI being highest on record for that month. These atmospheric indicators may be expected to weaken over the coming month as the ocean surface warms.

                               
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All available climate models suggest further weakening of the La Niña is likely through the southern hemisphere autumn, with a return to neutral conditions by winter 2011. The risk that the event may reform after autumn has reduced.

During La Niña events, tropical cyclone numbers are typically higher than normal during the November to April period, with February and March the peak. The influence of La Niña on Australian rainfall and temperature typically peaks during winter to mid-summer, and then weakens during the following autumn.

The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is limited during the months from December through to April.
发表于 2011-3-9 19:38 | 显示全部楼层
最近德雷克海峡温度偏高是否预示此次拉尼娜将加速减弱而厄尔尼诺又将出现了呢?

                               
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lx008 发表于 2011-2-28 18:53

早先还预测说今年出现什么“双峰拉尼娜”和“全年拉尼娜”!我感觉“全年拉尼娜”的形势还是存在的,就目前情况来看:“拉尼娜”低海温区正在向西移动,冷水区由原先的“东太平洋”向“中太平洋”西扩,东太平洋水温回升,而“中太平洋”则继续“拉尼娜”海温继续偏低,而这种“中太平洋”冷水区域可能在较长时间内还会持续,从而形成今年的“非典型拉尼娜”现象!!这就如同在上一个“厄尔尼诺现象”是“非典型”类同,海温异常区偏向“中太平洋”!!而不同的是上次的“非典型厄尔尼诺”“暖水区”由“中太平洋”事后东移到“东太平洋”,而这次“非典型拉尼娜”则由“东太平洋”后期逐渐移至“中太平洋”!!{:soso_e100:} 拭目以待!!
 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-12 04:23 | 显示全部楼层
The updated (January-February) MEI value has weakened slightly to -1.52 standard deviations after almost reaching -2 standard deviations in August-September of 2010. Nevertheless, the most recent value ranks 3rd for this time of year, clearly below the 10%ile threshold for strong La Niña MEI rankings , but slightly weaker than this time of year in 1971 and 1974. The current event has been classified as strong (top 6 ranking since 1950) for seven months running, tied with 1971 for 4th place in continuous duration, behind 1973-74 (8 months), 1975-6 (10 months), and 1955-6 (15 months).

Stay tuned for the next update (by April 9th, or earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. While La Niña conditions are guaranteed well into 2011, it remains to be seen whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed seven months ago on this page. I believe the odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%, notwithstanding the possibility of temporary weakening during boreal summer. During the next few months, the MEI may very well stay stronger than Niño 3.4 since the latter is not normalized to account for weaker variability during this time of year.

MEI: -1.52
-仍然是強烈拉尼娜(僅比1971/1974弱)
-持續時間為有紀錄第4位
- 出現兩年(2011-2012)拉尼娜機會高於一半
- MEI在夏天將會比Niño 3.4 SST INDEX更負~因為Niño 3.4沒有把夏天拉轉弱因素列入考慮..
发表于 2011-3-12 06:44 | 显示全部楼层
87# dnt02


PS: 是否预示着强拉尼娜会维持全年?今年可望见到强台风登陆我国么?
发表于 2011-3-12 09:56 | 显示全部楼层
日本猛烈地震,已使双峰乃至多峰拉尼娜成为定局。
发表于 2011-3-12 10:56 | 显示全部楼层
89# li0627


    你的意思是拉尼娜会连续几年??
发表于 2011-3-15 20:25 | 显示全部楼层
请教,网上有什么介绍强烈地震与拉尼娜的资料么?
发表于 2011-3-15 22:43 | 显示全部楼层
请参阅全球变化- 杨学祥工作室。杨学祥的博客及学术研究很有独到意义,本人很认同他的观点,也是他的忠实支持者,他对全球变暖一说提出了不同观点,及拉马德冷相位的极端气候多、地震多和厄尔尼诺也会导致冷冬提出了自己的见解和依据
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