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[气候监测] 2010-2011年ENSO監察專帖

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发表于 2011-2-19 00:06 | 显示全部楼层
这是规定的问题,基准是达尔文和塔希提的气压。短时间的波幅可以很大,多日平均起来就靠谱了。
发表于 2011-2-20 12:26 | 显示全部楼层
73# li0627


LI啊,为什么我用网址上的公式反推出系数以后,带入50+的时候的数据,算出的结果是57呢?
发表于 2011-2-20 12:50 | 显示全部楼层
74# iceperple


是指这个公式?
      
SOI Calculation formula: 10x [PA (Tahiti) - PA (Darwin)] / Std Dev Diff
   
where: PA() = the Pressure Anomaly = monthly mean minus long-term mean (1887-1989 base period)
   
St.Dev.Diff. = Standard Deviation of the Difference (1887-1989 base period)

      
我不知道标准差的值诶,按想应该和统计值一样会有些许变量存在吧。
      
可以问下K管,之前的人工计算是他进行的,他应该更熟悉一点。
      
Date         Tahiti         Darwin         Daily**         30 day avg SOI         90 day avg SOI
16 Feb 2011         1014.53         999.20         50.87         16.61         21.30
17 Feb 2011         1015.33         999.05         55.43         18.13         21.71
18 Feb 2011         1015.06         1001.80         40.92         18.95         21.97
19 Feb 2011         1014.86         1004.10         28.92         19.09         22.05
      
相关链接:SOI计算公式
发表于 2011-2-20 13:06 | 显示全部楼层
Ice推算的系数,精度不够吧....
   
这个是偶推算的系数....已经是用2000-2010年的大样本推算了,小数点后还是差了点....
   
1月:
                    DP - 4.61
SOI = 10 · -------------
                       2.123
   
2月:
                    DP - 4.74
SOI = 10 · -------------
                       2.082
→可以变形为  SOI = 4.803·DP - 22.77
   
DP = SLP_mean.darwin - SLP_mean.tahiti      ......

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发表于 2011-2-20 14:07 | 显示全部楼层
现炒现卖 - -...
   
16 Feb 2011:10·[(1014.53-999.20) - 4.74] / 2.082 =  50.86      Queensland那网站公布的是50.87....
          4.803·(1014.53-999.20) - 22.77 = 50.86        一样。。。

17 Feb 2011:10·[(1015.33-999.05) - 4.74] / 2.082 =  55.43      走运了 = = 蒙对一次
          4.803·(1015.33-999.05) - 22.77 = 55.42        公式变形后杯具了。。。
发表于 2011-2-20 14:50 | 显示全部楼层
76# kitty8123


呃,我懒得去找原式数据找平均,所以就随便抽了三天的数据代入,然后直接求未知数……

算出来还是有明显差别的。
……

公式变出来是这个……SOI=(P(T)-P(D)-4.872)*5
发表于 2011-2-22 00:29 | 显示全部楼层
By Andrew Freedman
http://www.climatecentral.org/bl ... recast-center-says/
La Niña conditions, which have played a key role in influencing recent winter weather in the U.S. and other parts of the world, are beginning to wane, and will likely be gone by early to mid-summer, according to the latest outlook from forecasters at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). La Niña is a natural climate phenomenon that is characterized by cooler than average waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Like its sibling El Niño, La Niña influences global weather patterns by altering air pressure and predominant winds over the Pacific, which have ripple effects — known to meteorologists as "teleconnections" — in far flung locations. It can make certain  conditions — such as drought in the American Southwest — more likely to take place, while lessening the odds of other outcomes.

美国哥伦比亚大学国际气候研究所的Freedman认为本次拉妮娜强度正在减弱,最早在夏季中旬消失。华北的3~5月降雨预测似乎还是偏低。


Some events that are typically associated with La Niña — including heavy rainfall in northeastern Australia and wetter than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest — have come to pass this year. However, the winter of 2010/11 has featured some eccentricities that were more closely tied to other climate and weather variables. For example, the repeat blizzards in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in December and January are not typical for a La Niña winter. Instead, forecasters think they were more closely linked to an unusual configuration of the Arctic Oscillation and the related North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

美国这个冬天的东部暴雪更应归功于北极涛动和北大西洋涛动

According to IRI's latest update, the moderate to strong La Niña conditions were observed from mid-August 2010 until this month, when La Niña weakened to moderate strength, meaning Pacific waters have warmed slightly. The likelihood of La Niña conditions still being present is quite high until the summer, dropping from 94 percent during the February to April period to 34 percent during May to July. Typically, La Niña events reach their peak during the winter, and fade as summer approaches.
拉妮娜强度已由中到强削弱到中等,持续到5~7月的概率下降到34%。

                               
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La Niña is one of the biggest determinants of interseasonal climate variability, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. This distinguishes it from long-term climate change, which takes place over many decades.
发表于 2011-2-22 15:01 | 显示全部楼层
AO和NAO的正式翻译应该是北极涛动和北大西洋涛动,而不是北极振荡和北大西洋振荡,更不是错别字的XX“震”荡。

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发表于 2011-2-28 18:53 | 显示全部楼层
最近德雷克海峡温度偏高是否预示此次拉尼娜将加速减弱而厄尔尼诺又将出现了呢?

                               
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发表于 2011-2-28 19:46 | 显示全部楼层
81# lx008


目前那边的情况是南美秘鲁沿岸洋流观测的站点正在测试中,不知何时能好……
德雷克海峡通道的海冰面积是值得注意的一环,另外可以看到赤道东太平洋下沉中心并非位于巴拿马运河出口及其西侧海区,反而出现在120-140W附近的中西太平洋洋面上,这从赤道东太平洋表层暖水的分布状态就可以看出来,目前秘鲁寒流的位置应该要比常年明显偏西,这比较奇特。
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