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[气候监测] 2010-2011年ENSO監察專帖

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发表于 2010-12-25 12:01 | 显示全部楼层
Daily SOI 1887 1989 Base
Year Day  Tahiti  Darwin     SOI
2010 356 1013.15 1002.65   35.19
2010 357 1014.34 1002.50   42.14
2010 358 1014.58 1004.30   34.04

Daily SOI 1933 1992 Base
Year Day  Tahiti  Darwin     SOI
2010 355 1013.15 1003.70   30.39
2010 356 1014.34 1001.70   46.63
2010 357 1014.58 1004.30   34.62
发表于 2010-12-25 22:01 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-12-25 22:21 | 显示全部楼层
一個月過去了~~ENSO指標區沒有多大變動~
正變負距平的地區大西洋中北部/中美州南岸/赤道印度洋/阿拉伯海~
IOD又再插水?
另外南半球咆哮四十下三大洋都是紅得發紫
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发表于 2011-1-9 11:46 | 显示全部楼层
The most recent (November-December) MEI value has weakened slightly to -1.52 standard deviations after almost dropping below -2 standard deviations in August-September. Nevertheless, the most recent value ranks 4th for this time of year, clearly below the 10%-tile threshold for strong La Niña MEI rankings , but slightly weaker than the values recorded in 1955, '73, and '75. If one were to take the average of all MEI rankings since June-July (a six-month period), the strongest La Niña half-year periods of mid-55, early '71, '73-74, and late '75 averaged slightly stronger than the current event, for now.

                               
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发表于 2011-1-20 11:57 | 显示全部楼层
La Niña continues to dominate in the Pacific

Issued on Wednesday 19 January 2011 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

One of the strongest La Niña events on record continues to influence the climate of the Pacific Basin.

Climate indicators of ENSO, including tropical cloud amount, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and Pacific sea surface and sub-surface temperatures, all remain well in excess of La Niña thresholds. Most have exceeded these thresholds since the middle of 2010. The average August to December SOI (+21.1) has only been exceeded by the La Niña of 1917-18 (+24.4), with the 1975-76 La Niña value (+18.8) ranked third. Several other indices also suggest the La Niña events of 2010-11, 1975-76, 1917-18, 1955-56 and possibly 1988-89, rank closely in terms of the strongest events on record.

                               
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发表于 2011-1-20 13:01 | 显示全部楼层
57# lx008
冲破70年代,正常发展下去,连孙大炮都不是对手,得去见慈禧的{:soso_e113:}
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发表于 2011-1-20 15:08 | 显示全部楼层
不知华北旱情在其影响下能持续到何时?
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发表于 2011-1-24 10:19 | 显示全部楼层
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/update.html

ENSO Update
20 January 2011
Summary
Moderate to strong La Niña conditions have been observed since mid-August 2010, and continue as of mid-January 2011. For the January-March season currently in progress, there is an approximate 98% probability for continuing La Niña conditions, and a 2% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions. Probabilities for La Niña conditions continue at 88% for the February-April season, and do not drop to below 50% until the April-June season.
General Discussion
In mid-January, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index continues at values indicative of moderate to strong La Niña levels (1.7 degrees C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific continue to feature markedly stronger than average easterlies, and subsurface oceanic heat content continues to be well below average. These observations indicate a high probability of the continuation of La Niña conditions for at least another two to four months.

                               
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Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models, 100% of them indicate maintenance of La Niña conditions during the upcoming February-April 2011 season. Overall, based on model predictions and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, for the February-April and the March-May seasons the probability for La Niña conditions is approximately 88% and 67%, respectively. By the April-June season the probability for La Niña conditions is estimated at approximately 46%, decreasing to less than 30% for June-August and beyond. Probabilities for El Niño conditions are 10% or less through April-June, rising to the 20%-25% range from the June-August season onward.
发表于 2011-1-26 21:42 | 显示全部楼层
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediace ... ases/pr_907_en.html
Geneva, 25 January 2010 (WMO) – A significant La Niña episode, which is affecting climate conditions in different regions of the world, continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Its strength is expected to decrease during the course of the coming four months, according to a new Update issued today by the World Meteorological Organization.

Almost all forecast models predict a continuation of the current La Niña for at least the next 2-4 months, through the first quarter of 2011 and possibly into the second quarter (April or early May).
中广网北京1月26日消息 据中国之声《全球华语广播网》报道,世界气象组织25日在日内瓦发布最新报告称:造成澳大利亚洪灾泛滥和南美持续干旱的罪魁祸首——拉尼娜现象的影响将至少持续到今年的四、五月份。

从去年12月以来,澳大利亚和巴西等国持续暴雨引发洪灾和泥石流。气象专家预计,罪魁祸首拉尼娜现象今年第一季度的威力或减弱,但仍将持续影响全球的气候。

拉尼娜是和一种和厄尔尼诺相反的现象,一般紧随厄尔尼诺而来,每两年至七年发生一次,每一次持续9-12个月。这一次的拉尼娜从去年7月开始,所造成的影响是近一个世纪以来最严重的一次,不但造成澳大利亚、印尼和南非等地区的降雨量猛增,还使得南美西岸异常干燥。

“The strength of the event is likely to decrease during the course of the coming 4 months,” says the El Niño/La Niña Update.  

Beyond that time, the evolution of the El Niño/La Niña cycle is uncertain, it says.

La Niña is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It is the opposite of El Niño, which is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures. Both events disrupt the large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns in the tropics and have important consequences for weather and climate around the globe. Once established, they typically last for 9 months or more.

The current La Niña developed quickly in June and July 2010, following the dissipation of the 2009/2010 El Niño.

Atmospheric indicators (in terms of sea-level pressure, winds, cloudiness, etc.) show this La Niña episode to be one of the strongest of the past century, while oceanic indicators have been at moderate to strong levels, with sea surface temperatures averaging around 1.5 degrees Celsius cooler than normal in the east-central tropical Pacific. There has been a robust ocean-atmospheric coupling, as evidenced by reduced cloudiness and stronger trade winds in association with cooler sea surface temperatures.

Below average sea level pressure and above average sea surface temperature in the western tropical Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean, in association with this La Niña, have led to much above average rainfall in parts of Australia, Indonesia and southeast Asia. This La Niña situation is also believed to be linked to above average rainfall in southern Africa, below average rainfall in eastern equatorial Africa, and below average rainfall in central southwest Asia and southeastern South America.

“Regions typically impacted by La Niña events are advised to take note of the expected continuation of moderate to strong La Niña conditions over the coming 1-2 months and weaker La Niña conditions during March and April,” says the Update.

The outlook is based on numerous numerical prediction models, the typical climatological patterns, and on the presence of above-normal subsurface sea temperatures in the western equatorial Pacific that are slowly moving eastwards.

While many recent regional climate impacts are consistent with the impacts typically associated with La Niña, some differ, and may continue to differ.  It is therefore important to consult regional climate information and seasonal outlooks that consider both the prevailing La Niña conditions and other factors with potential influence on the local climate.

The El Niño/La Niña Update is a consensus-based product prepared by WMO in close collaboration with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA, based on input from climate prediction centres and experts around the world.

Background:

Generally, during La Niña episodes rainfall is increased across the western equatorial Pacific, including northern Australia and Indonesia during December-February and the Philippines during June-August and is nearly absent across the eastern equatorial Pacific. Wetter than normal conditions also tend to be observed during December-February over northern South America and southern Africa, and during June-August over South Asia and southeastern Australia. Drier than normal conditions are generally observed along coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru and equatorial eastern Africa during December to February, and over southern Brazil and central Argentina during June-August.

La Niña episodes also contribute to large-scale temperature departures throughout the world, with most of the affected regions experiencing abnormally cool conditions. These include: below-normal temperatures during December-February over southeastern Africa, Japan, southern Alaska and western/central Canada, and southeastern Brazil; cooler than normal conditions during June-August across India and southeastern Asia, along the west coast of South America, across the Gulf of Guinea region, and across northern South America and portions of central America; and warmer than normal conditions during December-February along the Gulf coast of the United States.

La Niña is also known to be associated with a relatively more active hurricane season in tropical North Atlantic, during June to November.
发表于 2011-1-31 10:09 | 显示全部楼层
最近SOI下降了不少
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