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[气候监测] 2010-2011年ENSO監察專帖

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发表于 2010-8-22 08:10 | 显示全部楼层
Note: Calculated using the 1887-1989 base period. This information is usually updated every weekday at 2:00pm (AEST), public holidays excluded.

Date: 21 August 2010

Average SOI for last 30 days: 19.3

Average SOI for last 90 days: 12.2

Daily contribution to SOI calculation: 31.6
  
看来8-9月份,想超8赶7(超过80年代以来记录,赶上70年代记录)

PS.
1917年8月SOI 33.1
1973 年11月31.5
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-4 00:49 | 显示全部楼层
La Niña strengthens in the Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 1 September 2010

A La Niña event is now well established in the Pacific Ocean. All computer models surveyed by the Bureau suggest Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will continue to exceed La Niña thresholds through the southern hemisphere spring, with the majority indicating the event will persist into at least early 2011.
All key indicators of ENSO are at levels typical of a La Niña event. The central Pacific has cooled significantly over the past two weeks, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains well above La Niña thresholds, cloudiness over the central Pacific remains suppressed and trade winds continue to be stronger than the long-term average in the central and western Pacific.
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Night time temperatures are historically warmer than average and Tropical Cyclone occurrence for northern Australia is typically higher than normal during the cyclone season (November-April).
Recent values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index, combined with forecasts from the Bureau’s POAMA model, suggest that a negative IOD event may have commenced in the Indian Ocean. Negative IOD events are often, but not always associated with above average rainfall over large areas of southern Australia during the southern hemisphere spring, and are known to coincide with La Niña events.

拉尼娜發展已經十分成熟,預料北半球秋天SSTa將仍然超越拉尼娜臨界點~而大部份模式預期拉尼娜會持續至2011年初
各項ENSO指標也表現拉尼娜特徵
IOD亦預測轉為負值,東印度洋水溫轉為高於西印度洋,IOD負值是印--太齒輪下的產物
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-5 03:00 | 显示全部楼层
補充一點...9月3日CDC出的報文表示7/8兩月的MEI值為-1.81...直迫1973年-1.906的低值~顯然現在已經是極強拉尼娜....能否突破1954年的有紀錄以來的最強拉尼娜?還是拭目以待:loveliness:
发表于 2010-9-5 15:35 | 显示全部楼层
提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
发表于 2010-9-5 15:49 | 显示全部楼层
我发现日本海的正距平如此强烈,是否预示着今冬副高极其偏北。
 楼主| 发表于 2010-9-15 23:44 | 显示全部楼层
The La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean has strengthened further over the past two weeks. All computer models surveyed by the Bureau predict the La Niña will last through the southern hemisphere spring, with the majority indicating the event will persist into at least early 2011.
La Niña indicators have consolidated in the Pacific. The central and eastern Pacific Ocean is now more than a degree cooler than the long-term mean, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to rise, trade winds are at their strongest since 1998 and cloudiness over the central tropical Pacific remains suppressed.
La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Night time temperatures are historically warmer than average and Tropical Cyclone occurrence for northern Australia is typically higher than normal during the cyclone season (November-April).
Recent values of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index, combined with forecasts from the Bureau’s POAMA model, suggest that a negative IOD event has commenced in the Indian Ocean. Negative IOD events are often, but not always, associated with above average rainfall over large areas of southern Australia during spring, and are known to often coincide with La Niña events. IOD events generally decay in the months of November and December with the onset of the Australian monsoon.

過去兩星期,拉尼娜進一步增強!!
各項拉尼娜指標也進一步鞏固中,其中信風是1998年以來最強
发表于 2010-9-26 13:32 | 显示全部楼层
现在海表温度距平上,冷水暖水都吓人:
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-1 08:25 | 显示全部楼层
A La Niña remains well-established in the Pacific. Given the current strength of the event and the outlook from long-range models surveyed by the Bureau, this La Niña is expected to persist into at least early 2011.

拉尼娜最少持續至2011年初

All indicators remain firmly at La Niña levels. The central Pacific Ocean is cooler than the long-term mean both at and below the surface, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains strongly positive, trade winds are stronger than normal and cloudiness over the central tropical Pacific continues to be suppressed. Such consistent signals indicate the tropical atmosphere and ocean are now clearly reinforcing each other.

(次)表層赤道中太平洋海溫仍然偏低,SOI 強烈正值,赤道中太平洋信風偏強但雲量偏少,海氣訊號互相支持對方

La Niña periods are generally associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Night time temperatures are historically warmer than average and Tropical Cyclone occurrence for northern Australia is typically higher than normal during the cyclone season (November-April).

A negative IOD event is also underway in the Indian Ocean. Negative IOD events often coincide with La Niña events, and are often, but not always, associated with above average rainfall over large areas of southern Australia during spring. IOD events generally decay in the months of November and December with the onset of the Australian monsoon.
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-10-1 08:29 | 显示全部楼层
Date        Tahiti        Darwin         Daily**        30 day avg SOI        90 day avg SOI
1 Sep 2010        1019.44        1011.60        32.80        18.29        12.82
2 Sep 2010        1019.61        1011.50        34.41        19.65        13.29
3 Sep 2010        1019.78        1010.45        41.66        20.96        13.82
4 Sep 2010        1019.59        1009.95        43.50        21.79        14.30
5 Sep 2010        1019.14        1011.75        30.13        22.18        14.73
6 Sep 2010        1017.75        1011.65        22.46        22.62        15.15
7 Sep 2010        1016.88        1010.60        23.53        22.85        15.52
8 Sep 2010        1017.33        1011.50        20.86        22.44        15.79
9 Sep 2010        1017.78        1012.10        19.97        22.12        16.06
10 Sep 2010        1017.06        1011.60        18.66        22.33        16.27
11 Sep 2010        1016.29        1011.05        17.35        22.77        16.43
12 Sep 2010        1016.11        1011.45        13.91        23.16        16.62
13 Sep 2010        1017.44        1011.40        22.11        23.67        16.89
14 Sep 2010        1019.05        1010.45        37.32        24.24        17.25
15 Sep 2010        1017.41        1011.25        22.82        24.51        17.52
16 Sep 2010        1016.35        1010.70        19.79        24.29        17.68
17 Sep 2010        1017.39        1010.80        25.38        24.30        17.96
18 Sep 2010        1016.30        1010.50        20.68        24.15        18.21
19 Sep 2010        1016.18        1009.30        27.10        24.04        18.52
20 Sep 2010        1016.96        1010.35        25.49        23.84        18.90
21 Sep 2010        1017.19        1011.75        18.54        23.65        19.18
22 Sep 2010        1017.01        1010.85        22.82        23.69        19.43
23 Sep 2010        1017.30        1010.10        29.00        23.93        19.63
24 Sep 2010        1018.00        1010.80        29.00        24.24        19.92
25 Sep 2010        1018.43        1010.95        30.66        24.39        20.17
26 Sep 2010        1017.74        1011.35        24.19        24.21        20.22
27 Sep 2010        1016.93        1010.70        23.24        24.44        20.19
28 Sep 2010        1015.48        1009.90        19.37        24.92        20.28
29 Sep 2010        1016.10        1009.35        26.33        25.54        20.43
30 Sep 2010        1016.65        1009.20        30.49        25.79        20.65

完全暴了...
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-11-14 02:36 | 显示全部楼层
拉尼娜南太深水炸弹:http://www.21cma.net/thread-8757-1-1.html
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