世纪气象云

 找回密码
 注册

QQ登录

只需一步,快速开始

楼主: dnt02
收起左侧

[气候监测] 2010-2011年ENSO監察專帖

[复制链接]
 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-28 23:39 | 显示全部楼层
過去兩週(截止23/5),赤道中東太平洋的海溫急劇下跌,Nino3區SST Index下插至-0.01度(圖1), Nino4則下跌至+0.19度(圖2), Nino3.4 SST Index則進一步下跌至-0.23度(圖3)
表層海溫顯示,赤道中東太平洋已經出現大範圍0~-0.5度負距平,逆轉情況十分快速(圖4),秘書對出海面已經出現-1.5~-2度負距平(圖5)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-29 00:22 | 显示全部楼层
次表層海溫顯示冷水向上湧,西經160度以東冷水已經上湧至表層,造成Nino3.4區域水溫急劇下跌,而-4.5~5.5度的冷水目前廣泛地出現在東太平洋的50-100米的海底
SOI過去一週逐漸轉為強正
20-May-2010    1012.16   1010.40      1.78      7.90      3.06
21-May-2010    1011.25   1011.20    -11.32      6.84      3.02
22-May-2010    1011.55   1010.55     -4.04      6.18      2.97
23-May-2010    1013.58   1009.90     16.49      6.68      3.06
24-May-2010    1013.01   1010.60      6.76      6.89      3.06
25-May-2010    1012.48   1010.65      2.32      6.61      2.97
26-May-2010    1014.51   1010.70     17.48      6.70      3.01
27-May-2010    1016.56   1010.85     32.04      7.58      3.25

OLR(留意顏色標距),過去一週大西洋/西非,東印度洋和孟加拉灣在多雲地區,沃克下沉在遠洋西太,而赤道地區雲量異常偏

                               
登录/注册后可看大图

參考第27樓,最新模式預測明顯把Nino3.4水溫下調~預測今年底已經達到拉尼娜的水平(According to CPC’s ENSO definition based on ERSST (NINO3.4 =< -0.5C for five consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......

评分

1

查看全部评分

 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-9 14:54 | 显示全部楼层
Issued on Wednesday 9 June 2010
Neutral conditions persist in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have cooled by around half a degree in the last month, but remain within neutral thresholds. Trade winds and cloudiness near the date line have fluctuated around normal values.
The majority of international computer models are forecasting continued cooling of the tropical Pacific to below La Ni&#241;a thresholds in the coming months. Some current indicators are consistent with these forecasts. In particular, temperatures below the surface of the equatorial Pacific continue to be around 3 to 4 degrees cooler than normal. The Southern Oscillation Index remains in positive territory, and is currently around +8.0. Sustained positive values above +8.0 are a typical indicator of La Ni&#241;a.
Historically, about 35~40% of El Ni&#241;o events are followed by a La Ni&#241;a within the same year. Further cooling of central Pacific sea surface temperatures, coupled with a persistence of sub-surface cooling and positive SOI values in the next two months would further increase the chance of a La Ni&#241;a in 2010.
赤道太平洋處於正常水平
表層海溫比上個月下降了0.5度左右
赤道中太平洋信風和雲量在正常水平波動
大部分預測指未來數個月海溫將下降至拉尼娜門檻以下,尤其是赤道次表層海溫出現了比平常低了3-4度的冷水
SOI維持在正值上(+8.0)是拉尼娜出現的指標
发表于 2010-6-15 15:51 | 显示全部楼层
从最新数值,月数值及季数值看,中东太转冷将继续加强
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-25 00:36 | 显示全部楼层
Sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have continued to cool over the past fortnight, and are now generally cooler than average in areas east of the date-line. Below the surface of the tropical Pacific, temperatures are now more than 4°C cooler than average in some areas. Trade winds in the western Pacific have strengthened, while cloudiness near the date-line has reduced. These indicators, together with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which has been consistently positive since April, are consistent with the developing stages of a La Ni&#241;a event.
The majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest current patterns and trends will continue, with a significant likelihood of further ocean cooling beyond La Ni&#241;a thresholds before the end of the southern winter.
Historically, about 35 to 40% of El Ni&#241;o events (such as occurred in 2009/10) are followed by a La Ni&#241;a within the same year. The combination of current trends and model outlooks suggest the chance of a La Ni&#241;a in 2010 is now clearly more likely than not.

過去兩星期赤道中太平洋的表層海溫持續下降,目前換日線以東已經比正常為低
熱帶太平洋出現比正常低約4度的次表層海溫
西太信風加強,而換日線雲量減少,4月後SOI保持正值都印證拉尼娜正在發展當中
2010年出現拉尼娜機會較高
 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-25 01:30 | 显示全部楼层
截止20/6,赤道中東太平洋的海溫進一步下跌,Nino3區SST Index下插至-0.35度(圖1),比上個月再跌0.34度, Nino4則下跌至-0.02度(圖2),跌0.21度, Nino3.4 SST Index則進一步下跌至-0.42度,比上個月再跌0.19度(圖3)
表層海溫顯示,東南太平和洋赤道中東太平洋出現大範圍0.5~-1.0度負距平,並有持續擴大之勢,冷水已經到達東經160度地區(圖4)
而次表層海溫更顯示赤道東太平洋海底出現大範圍冷水,部份地區海溫偏低了5度之多,而且過去一個月冷水負距平有進一步擴大之勢!(圖5)
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-25 01:51 | 显示全部楼层
SOI過去數星期在+5-10附近振盪(圖6)

                               
登录/注册后可看大图

OLR(留意顏色標距),過去一週,東印度洋和孟加拉灣和西太平洋近菲律賓處於多雲地區,沃克下沉在遠洋西太赤道地區,另外大西洋和赤道東太平洋近中美州雲量偏多,接連出現03E,04E&05E(圖7)

                               
登录/注册后可看大图

而POAMA綜合預測顯示Nino3.4地區在6-7月已經明顯偏低1度以上,大幅調強拉尼娜強度!(圖8)

                               
登录/注册后可看大图

最後進入6月第4候(6月16-20日),西北太平洋副高脊線回歸正常,顯示厄爾尼諾影響已經結束,西太風季亦將逐漸回歸正常~(圖9)

                               
登录/注册后可看大图
发表于 2010-6-28 21:01 | 显示全部楼层
日期          大溪地之氣壓 (百帕)          達爾文之氣壓 (百帕)          每天數值          30天平均南方濤動指數          90天平均南方濤動指數
28-06-2010         1015.45         1011.25         20.45 (+12.93)         1.20 (-0.06)         7.77 (+0.14)
27-06-2010         1014.11         1011.75         7.52 (+4.36)         1.26 (-0.8)         7.63 (+0.02)
26-06-2010         1013.74         1012.00         3.16 (-7.88)         2.06 (-0.96)         7.61 (+0.07)
25-06-2010         1014.01         1011.15         11.04 (+11.11)         3.02 (-0.22)         7.54 (+0.16)
24-06-2010         1013.63         1012.35         -0.07 (+6.54)         3.24 (-0.08)         7.38 (-0.02)
23-06-2010         1014.25         1013.90         -6.61 (+1.90)         3.32 (-0.44)         7.40 (-0.13)
22-06-2010         1014.63         1014.55         -8.51 (-7.45)         3.76 (-0.84)         7.53 (-0.17)



要注意了。。近一個月新高
 楼主| 发表于 2010-7-7 22:06 | 显示全部楼层
Trend towards La Ni&#241;a continues.
Issued on Wednesday 7 July 2010 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
Sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have continued to cool over the past fortnight, and hence the tropical Pacific is now generally cooler than average east of the date-line. Below the surface, temperatures also remain significantly cooler than average, with some areas more than 4°C cooler than normal. Trade winds in the western Pacific remain stronger than normal and cloudiness near the date-line continues to be suppressed. These indicators, together with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which has been positive since April, are consistent with the developing stages of a La Ni&#241;a event.
The majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest current patterns and trends will continue, with a significant likelihood of further ocean cooling beyond La Ni&#241;a thresholds before the end of the southern winter.
Historically, about 35 to 40% of El Ni&#241;o events (such as occurred in 2009/10) are followed by a La Ni&#241;a within the same year. The combination of current trends and model outlooks suggest the chance of a La Ni&#241;a in 2010 is now clearly more likely than not.

過去兩週赤道中東太平洋海溫進一步下跌,換日線以東的熱帶太平洋海溫已經比平均氣候值為低,次表層海溫依然出現比正常低4度以上的冷水
西太平洋的信風和雲量分別是偏強和偏少,而SOI保持正值均是拉尼娜發展的證據
大部份預測模式支持目前形勢維持並很有可能在今年夏天之前突破拉尼娜門檻
发表于 2010-7-8 20:23 | 显示全部楼层
有所发展
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|世纪气象云 | | | 关于我们

GMT+8, 2019-12-15 18:44 , Processed in 0.089655 second(s), 21 queries .

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表