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[气候监测] 2010-2011年ENSO監察專帖

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发表于 2010-4-20 22:45 | 显示全部楼层
日期 大溪地之氣壓 (百帕) 達爾文之氣壓 (百帕) 每天數值 30天平均南方濤動指數 90天平均南方濤動指數
20-04-2010  1013.05 1008.20 17.74 (+5.48) 10.78 (+1.03) -7.64 (+0.38)
19-04-2010  1012.94 1008.85 12.26 (+2.89) 9.75 (+0.86) -8.02 (+0.28)
18-04-2010  1013.44 1009.75 9.37 (-1.8) 8.89 (+0.58) -8.30 (+0.18)
17-04-2010  1013.04 1009.10 11.17 (+7.85) 8.31 (+0.68) -8.48 (+0.13)

30days SOI持續上升!
看來El Nino 命不該矣
下半年可能會開始La Nina
发表于 2010-4-28 18:26 | 显示全部楼层
ENSO Wrap-Up: Neutral conditions returning to the Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 28 April 2010 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Apart from some lingering warmth in the western Pacific, the majority of ENSO indicators have now dropped below El Niño thresholds. The cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which began in late December, has resulted in trade winds and tropical cloudiness returning to normal. Similarly, the Southern Oscillation Index has risen steadily, remaining positive since early in the second week of April.

The decline in the 2009/10 El Niño event is consistent with climate model predictions which suggest Pacific Ocean temperatures will continue to cool over the coming months. The majority of model predictions point towards cooler than normal Pacific Ocean conditions emerging during the southern winter. As autumn is a typical transitional period for ENSO, model predictions through and beyond autumn are generally less reliable than at other times of the year.

西北太平洋回歸正常狀態

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发表于 2010-4-29 07:37 | 显示全部楼层
看ENSO有个简单方法:当看到澳大利亚海域北部总是有气旋或辐合云带时,证明海气在向拉尼娜发展。
  
当然,最好是有OLR的统计,如图。
  
按目前数值来看,这次拉尼娜又是“非典型”,按现在的气候背景也有嫌疑,不过,数值目前误差较大,还需跟进和观测。
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......

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发表于 2010-4-29 21:39 | 显示全部楼层
本月SOI指数突破10没有悬念。西风偏强,赤道东风也强,这样暖水会不断在中太一带堆积,东太水域水温目前在向正常值范围接近。今夏估计远洋强台会不断上演,好戏观赏啊!
:y4
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组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2010-5-3 10:38 | 显示全部楼层
Weekly sea surface temperatures:
The central Pacific Ocean SST has cooled during April, with NINO indices returning to neutral levels. The SST anomaly map shows warm anomalies covering most of the equatorial Pacific, with anomalies in excess of +1°C in the far eastern Pacific and in a few scattered areas across the remainder of the tropical Pacific.
Regions Previous Current Temperature change (2 weeks)
Nino 3   +1.0   +0.7  0.3°C cooler
Nino 3.4   +0.8    +0.7   0.1°C cooler
Nino 4   +0.9   +0.8   0.1°C cooler
总结:近两周中太海温在回落中,向正常值靠拢中,不过总体还是偏高0.7°C以上,按模式预测将在7月左右进入正常区间
soi30.thumb.png Temperature_Anomaly.gif poama.nino34.small.gif
再附图几张:中东太海温整体状况
nino1.png nino2.png nino3.png nino3_4.png nino4.png

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-6 01:52 | 显示全部楼层
The most recent (March-April) MEI value has dropped by half a standard deviation to +0.88, in its 4th biggest one-month drop for the season since 1950. The most recent MEI rank has dropped less dramatically to 55th (7th highest) out of 61 for this season, still comfortably above the upper 20% threshold for moderate MEI rankings for this season, but not in the upper 10%-tile anymore.
-3-4月的MEI的按月下跌幅度是1950年來第4大
-目前MEI的排行仍然是同期第7高(厄爾尼諾現象仍然明顯)

After peaking two months ago at +1.5, it has lost more than 40% of its amplitude, and continues to match 1957-58 best of the 'analog' cases shown here. A near-neutral ENSO period appears imminent during the next few months, but the jury is still out on whether we will see a switch to La Niña conditions in 2010. In fact, of the six El Niño-like cases with comparable drops in MEI amplitude from March to April, three ended up near-neutral for the rest of that year (1978, 1990, and 2003), while two transitioned to at least weak La Niña conditions by the end of that year (1995, 2005), and only one (1973) made that transition by the summer of that year. In other words, the statistical odds are roughly 50/50 that we will see a La Niña event emerge before 2010 is over. On the other hand, the overall similarity with 1957-58 translates into non-zero odds of a return to El Niño conditions by the end of this year.
-目前厄爾尼諾現象振幅已經比巔峰下跌了40+%
-今次厄爾尼諾現象和1957-1958年的厄事件最相似
-歷史顯示過去6次MEI出現相似跌幅下,該年其餘時間維持正常有3次;2次出現弱拉尼娜現象
-年底出現拉尼娜現象機會是50非曲直
-不排除厄爾尼諾現象重新回歸的可能性
更多图片 小图 大图
组图打开中,请稍候......

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-5-14 00:23 | 显示全部楼层
ENSO Wrap-Up: El Niño finishes
Issued on Wednesday 12 May 2010
The El Niño event of 2009/10 has concluded, with all the major indicators now below El Niño thresholds. Latest observations show that sea surface temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness over the Pacific have all returned to levels considered typical of neutral (i.e. neither El Niño nor La Niña) conditions. The timing of the decline in the 2009/10 El Niño event has been fairly typical, with the event peaking over summer then decaying during autumn.
Historically, about 40% of El Niño events are immediately followed by a La Niña. Current conditions below the surface of the Pacific Ocean show large volumes of cooler than normal water, indicating that further cooling of the surface is likely.
The majority of climate model predictions suggest the tropical Pacific will cool further during the coming months, with the possible development of La Niña conditions by late winter or spring. No climate models suggest a return to El Niño conditions. As autumn is a typical transitional period for ENSO, model predictions through and beyond autumn are generally less reliable than at other times of the year.
El Nino已經結束,而且大量次表層冷水已經準備上湧至海面,未來SST持續降溫可能性非常大
目前預測模式未有預測El Nino回歸的情況出現
发表于 2010-5-15 19:45 | 显示全部楼层
今年100Hpa层面的极涡崩的特别早,才5月5日16000闭合线就消失的无影无踪,这样的一个可能结果就是赤道东风很可能在6-9月间不断加强。
100Hpa.gif
配合4月次表层海温演变来看,年底发生强烈拉尼娜的可能性极高。
Temperature_Anomaly.gif
再来一张经度140W附近的海温分布情况
Temperature_Full32field_140W.gif
而且从目前华南地区的降水量的状况来推断,可能会导致2010年底至2011年初冬季东亚地区的降水量加大,而全球的气温则由于受海温下降的影响而缓慢回落,变暖很可能再次停滞。
发表于 2010-5-26 17:06 | 显示全部楼层
ssued on Wednesday 26 May 2010

Climate indicators across the equatorial Pacific are currently neutral. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness over the Pacific are all at levels considered typical of neutral conditions (i.e. neither El Niño nor La Niña).

Historically, about 35~40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year. Currently, a large volume of cooler than normal water is present below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which indicates that further cooling of the surface of the tropical Pacific is likely.

International climate models predict continued cooling of the Pacific Ocean sea surface, with the majority of models surveyed by the Bureau predicting that this cooling will be sufficient to see the development of La Niña conditions later in the year. No climate models suggest a return to El Niño conditions. It should be noted that correctly predicting transitional periods of the El Niño Southern Oscillation is more difficult than predicting the continuation or decline of El Niño or La Niña events.

目前热带太平洋的水温、信风、SOI、云量等指数都处于正常状态。
过去,约35-40%的厄尔尼诺事件之后会出现拉尼娜事件。目前,赤道太平洋次表层存在大量冷水,表明随后热带太平洋表层水温有进一步变冷的可能。
目前的主要数值模式显示拉尼娜事件将会在今年稍后时间出现。没有模式认为会重返厄尔尼诺状态。

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发表于 2010-5-27 00:11 | 显示全部楼层
目前的主要数值模式显示拉尼娜事件将会在今年稍后时间出现。
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