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[气候监测] 2010-2011年ENSO監察專帖

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发表于 2011-3-17 11:13 | 显示全部楼层
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
澳洲气象局继续认为目前的拉尼娜强度正在减弱,6月份可能消失,但海洋指标减弱的同时,大气指标的强度仍显得较强
The La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean has continued to weaken over the past two weeks as Pacific Ocean temperatures along the equator have warmed. All available climate models suggest further weakening of the La Niña is likely through the southern hemisphere autumn, with a return to neutral conditions likely by winter 2011.

Current observations of warming in the Pacific Ocean are consistent with the life cycle of past La Niña events. In some contrast to the weakening in the ocean, atmospheric indicators of the La Niña, including trade winds, cloudiness and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remain consistent with a well developed La Niña event. These atmospheric indicators are expected to return to neutral over the coming months.

                               
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During La Niña events, tropical cyclone numbers are typically higher than normal during the November to April period, with February and March the peak. The influence of La Niña on Australian rainfall and temperature typically peaks during winter to mid-summer, and then weakens during the following autumn.

The influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on Australian rainfall is limited during the months from December through to April.
发表于 2011-3-28 12:04 | 显示全部楼层
JMA在3-25更新的太平洋十年涛动(PDO)的最新序列
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组图打开中,请稍候......
发表于 2011-3-28 12:38 | 显示全部楼层
92# 王春


没用,只是一些气象爱好者的个人观点罢了。
发表于 2011-3-28 17:09 | 显示全部楼层
风险管理公司AIR也讨论过用ENSO和PDO综合指标预测太平洋台风
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组图打开中,请稍候......

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-28 17:17 | 显示全部楼层
96# lx008
那麼今年颱風數目也是偏少嗎?{:soso_e152:}
发表于 2011-3-28 17:52 | 显示全部楼层
AIR也只是看图讨论。他们估计偏少。但历史数据太少,这种看图估计也不大可靠。而且拉尼娜何时结束也是未知数。
发表于 2011-4-7 13:45 | 显示全部楼层
澳洲气象局:The tropical Pacific Ocean warmed only slightly over the last fortnight, with temperatures continuing to approach their normal values for this time of year. The recent warming in the Pacific Ocean is consistent with the life cycle of past La Niña events, which tend to decline during the southern hemisphere’s autumn. All available climate models suggest further weakening of the La Niña over the coming months, with a return to neutral conditions likely by the southern hemisphere winter.
依然估计拉妮娜6月左右消失
Contrasting with the ocean, atmospheric indicators of the La Niña including trade winds, cloudiness and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have shown little trend and remain consistent with a well developed La Niña event. These atmospheric indicators are expected to return to neutral over the coming months in response to changes in the ocean.
不过现在海温指标减弱而大气指标仍偏强

                               
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NOAA PSD的Walter:While La Niña conditions are guaranteed for at least a few months more, it remains to be seen whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed eight months ago on this page. I believe the odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%, notwithstanding the possibility of temporary weakening during boreal summer. During the next few months, the MEI may very well stay stronger than Niño 3.4 since the latter is not normalized to account for weaker variability during this time of year. The current event has also shown a persistent tendency for stronger atmospheric than oceanic anomalies.
仍然觉得这次拉妮娜可以持续到2012,现在各大农产品研究机构也在争论拉妮娜还能影响全球农业生产到什么时候,中国、美国冬麦旱灾炒作快结束了,目前将炒作春播

                               
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发表于 2011-4-7 17:07 | 显示全部楼层
也有人估计北太平洋偏暖、德雷克海峡海域增温是厄尔尼诺在4月末开始形成的前兆

                               
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发表于 2011-4-18 17:42 | 显示全部楼层
对拉妮娜何时消退单靠模型预测似乎不大靠谱,而气候系统和地壳系统相连,让地震预测也更加艰难

ENSO监测简报
(第44期中文版)
2011年4月8日
"根据今年La Nina 事件达到盛期时,赤道太平洋最大海温负距平中心出现在Nino 3.4区附近,且赤道地区大气响应出现两支异常Walk环流,表现为中部型La Nina 事件的显著特征,我们分析了历史上相似的中部型la Nina 事件的衰减特征,结果发现:这些La Nina 事件一般在5-6月份左右结束,随后的夏季赤道中太平洋地区将处于正常略偏冷的状态,且热带太平洋地区海表温度异常分布特征类似“假ENSO”分布型。"

http://scitech.people.com.cn/GB/14410123.html

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/ ... ismic-shifts-study/
SYDNEY (AFP) – Scientists have for the first time shown a link between intensifying climate events and tectonic plate movement in findings that could provide a valuable insight into why huge tremors occur.

 如果说地震是由气候变化引起的,可能很多人持有怀疑的态度。但最近法国、德国和澳大利亚的科学家发表了一份研究报告,称气候变化可能引起板块运动,进而增大产生地震的可能性。



  这一研究报告13日经媒体披露,三国科学家称,长期的气候变化可能会引起地球板块运动,从而刺激地震的发生。媒体称,这是科学研究第一次将气候变化与地壳运动相联系。之前科学界公认的模式是,地震引发的地壳运动会对气候变化带来影响。



  三国科学家认为,地壳活动和气候变化是相互影响的,也就是说,人类长期持续的气候活动也可能诱发地壳变动,带来能给人类以重创的大地震。



  三国科学家主要是以印度洋季风对印度洋板块的影响为例,来解释地震和气候变化的关系。根据他们制作电脑模型分析的结果,印度洋季风在1000多万年的时间里,潜移默化地影响到了地壳印度洋板块的活动。

季风使得该板块活动加速大约20%,每年多移动约1厘米左右的距离。
发表于 2011-4-18 21:00 | 显示全部楼层
近日出现次表层“暖水断流”的
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