孟湾气旋风暴05B WARD

sylar

扰动编号：96B
编号时间：07 DEC 2009 1100Z
初始强度：15kts-1010mb
定位：5.5N.88.2E
存在区域：北印度洋
EC数值运算结果：向西北移動後接近陸地阻礙發展
发展记录：
11日下午，JTWC发布TCFA
晚上12UTC，JTWC升格为孟加拉湾气旋风暴05B
同日，IMD命名“WARD”


云图附件：

sylar

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3N 89.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH
SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE LLCC, WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH
IS PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS ALSO CREATING A MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE LLCC AND MODERATE VWS VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.

zjb0505

环流庞大........结构松散..........

sylar

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
84.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 84.1E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED
ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM'S OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA ARE REPORTING WINDS
RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURES FROM 1005 TO
1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

zjb0505

结构有所改善...对流开始趋向中心发展......强度也达到25KTS...机构对其未来的发展评价为一般...

sylar

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
84.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 83.8E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION ABOUT AN AREA OF STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL TURNING. THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) GIVEN THAT IT IS NOT YET FULLY CONSOLIDATED AND IT IS
OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS. A 111530Z ASCAT IMAGE CONFIRMS A NORTH-
SOUTH ELONGATION OF THE LLCC WITH 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
POSITIONED TO SUPPORT FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC. DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY STRONG RADIAL AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO ASSESSED AS LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

zjb0505

TCFA..........强度达到30KTS....

li0627

已经升格05B，且获得RSMC的命名。

li0627

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



          TROPCAL STORM ‘WARD’ ADVISORY NO. ONE ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 11th DECEMBER, 2009  BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 11th DECEMBER,2009.



          THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM, WARD AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH DECEMBER 2009 NEAR LAT. 8.50 N AND LONG. 84.50 E, ABOUT 300 KM EAST-NORTHEAST  OF BATTICALOA (SRI LANKA), 550 KM SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM AND 700 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.



SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FURTHER ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.5 RPT T2.5. SYSTEM SHOWS CURVED BAND PATTERN.  INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER AREA BETWEEN LAT. 5.00 N TO 15.00 N AND LONG. 81.00 TO 90.00 E. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS AROUND -750 C. THE OUT GOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR) AT 0900 UTC IS ABOUT 100 W/M2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



sustained maximum SURFACE wind speed is estimated to be about 35 KNOTS. the state of the sea is high around the system centre.  the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 998 hpa.



VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 100N. SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURES ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT IS 280-300 C OVER THE REGION. THE RELATIVE VORTICITY AT 850 HPA LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

         

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS TAMIL NADU COAST DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
DATE/TIME(UTC)       
POSITION (LAT. 0N/LONG. 0E)       
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH)

11-12-.2009/0900       
8.5/84.5       
65-75 gusting to 85

11-12-2009/1200       
8.5/84.5       
65-75 gusting to 85

11-12-2009/1800       
9.0/84.0       
65-75 gusting to 85

12-12-2009/0000       
9.5/83.5       
65-75 gusting to 85

12-12-2009/0600       
10.0/83.0       
65-75 gusting to 85

12-12-2009/1800       
10.5/82.0       
65-75 gusting to 85

13-12-2009/0600       
11.0/81.0       
65-75 gusting to 85

13-12-2009/1800       
11.0/80.0       
65-75 gusting to 85

14-12-2009/0600       
11.0/79.0       
45-55 gusting to 65

zjb0505

Navy/NRL 这边还没改,,依然是96B.....中心对流发展得不错....