0922号超级台风妮妲（26W）追击分析专帖 北半球的莫妮卡 160kt！！ ADT RAW T 8.0

威尼斯0519

扰动编号：94W
编号时间：20 NOV 2009 1301Z
初始强度：15kts-1010mb
定位：6.2N-153.9E
存在区域：西北太平洋
EC数值运算结果：此为91W的替身，直接发展？
发展记录：
21 Nov  0600Z，老J FAIR
21 Nov 1100Z，老J TCFA
22 Nov  0230Z，老J升格为26W
22 Nov  1800Z，JMA发出GW
23 Nov  1200Z，JMA升格为TS，命名为妮妲
24 Nov  0800Z，JTWC升格TY cat 1（65kt）
25 Nov，妮妲开始了变态的爆发，T值飙升到7.5，ADT RAW T 8.0，成为极度变态的突破德法的超级台风！堪比北半球的莫妮卡。
25 Nov 1200Z，JMA给出115kt，猛烈な的评价。这是蔷薇之后第二次出现115kt的破封顶评价！而且，这一次不比蔷薇，没有实测。同一时次，JTWC给出150kt的评价（2004年以来的第一次）！！妮妲成为今年最强台风！
25 Nov 1800Z，JTWC在官方报文中再次给出了已经久违的160kt的评价！！！！

云图附件：

liuxinmin

看来它后来却先胜出了,秋末台风?:y48

liuxinmin

虽然其先于91W胜出,但由于底层576线南压的厉害,所以其获得发展的机会相当困难

liuxinmin

风切支持，强度有所发展，最新气压1004Hpa，20KTS:y48

zjb0505

对流不错................

methk

WTPN21 PGTW 211100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 225 NM RADIUS OF 5.8N 148.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 148.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 146.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210851Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 202315Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS THE LLCC AS WELL AS A WESTERLY WIND BURST OF 20-KNOT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO HAVE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CONSOLIDATE
UNDER MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED ABOUT 25 DEGREES NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ENHANCING THE SYSTEM'S POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT ORGANIZATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
221100Z.//
NNNN

adrianou0328

扰动编号：94W
编号时间：20 NOV 2009 1301Z
初始强度：15kts-1010mb
定位：6.2N-153.9E
存在区域：西北太平洋
EC数值运算结果：此为91W的替身，直接发展？
发展记录：21 NOV 1100Z，老J直接發出TCFA。
云图 ...
威尼斯0519 发表于 2009-11-20 22:15

老J並非直接TCFA
21 0600Z 曾經Fair的

威尼斯0519

94WINVEST.20kts-1004mb-61N-1478E

cwnraul

已升格为26W

typhoonfreak

94W的環流昨天逐漸鞏固縮小~低層旋入顯著加強~今天清晨已經可見完整的螺旋雲系
CISK機制對中心的加熱效果也漸增~
繼昨天下午發布TCFA後~今天上午已經再升格為TD-26W
發展的條件還不錯~南側東南側的赤道西風水氣供應不差~海溫跟風切也都適中
自身高層逐漸有反旋狀的外流建立~顯示垂直氣柱正迅速往上延伸中
成為第0922號颱風妮妲機會很高

未來在副高壓勢力較弱且較偏東的情況下~移動方向將偏向西北
朝向關島以西海域接近~長遠的動態則還不明朗

菲律賓東南的93W範圍也繼續內縮~其實LLCC已經蠻不錯的~
對流雲團也持續在中心週圍爆發~強度看起來是有發展的趨勢
未來的變化還要繼續觀察~