0921號颱風「銀河」追擊分析專帖

威尼斯0519

扰动编号：95W
编号时间： 22 OCT 2009 2230Z
初始强度：15kts-1009mb
定位（经纬度）：5.1N-163.1E
存在区域：西北太平洋
EC数值运算结果：西行，穿越吕宋岛进入南海，从海南以南登陆越南
发展记录：
2521Z，JTWC发布TCFA
2603Z，JTWC升格23W
2706Z，获得命名：Mirinae （银河）
云图附件：

adrianou0328

Poor 了

li0627

主楼的EC预测情况有点太牵强了吧，看500hpa层面，95W连个中心闭合圈都没能搞出来，怎么可能将卢碧搞得逆旋呢？

即便看850hpa的高度，卢碧以东也不像是个TC啊。

威尼斯0519

NRL的图有点奇怪
上CMISS的截图……看样子似乎还不错

cwnraul

主楼的EC预测情况有点太牵强了吧，看500hpa层面，95W连个中心闭合圈都没能搞出来，怎么可能将卢碧搞得逆旋呢？

即便看850hpa的高度，卢碧以东也不像是个TC啊。
li0627 发表于 2009-10-23 14:50

EC今晨一报又来这种预测了。。。。
不但把卢碧拉散，自己也散得七七八八地从巴士闯入南海
EC最近感觉是不太可信了。。。

sylar

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 162.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHEAST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH INCREASED CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI
INDICATE A 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL OF 1 MB. A WESTERLY WIND BURST
LOCATED ALONG THE EQUATOR IS ENHANCING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE, HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS ALSO
MODERATE TO HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

且听风铃

20091024.1500.goes11.x.ir1km_bw.95WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-103N-1588E.100pc.jpg

且听风铃

风场记录

且听风铃

20091025.0057.gms6.x.ir1km.95WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-113N-1551E.100pc.jpg

且听风铃

20091024.1944.f17.x.composite.95WINVEST.15kts-1005mb-113N-1575E.38pc.jpg

蛋糕没切中~