0920号台风卢碧（22W）追击分析专帖

dnt02

初始扰动编号：94W
编号时间：12 OCT 2009 2130Z
初始强度：（气压和风速）15kts 1010mb
初始定位（经纬度）：11.0N, 162.0E
所处海域：西太平洋
EC数值预报结果：進入南海,強度相當不俗；14日12Z的初始场，甚至演算出850hpa层面的90m/s的风速！！
记录：
130600Z FAIR 11.0N 161.8E
132330Z TCFA 10.0N 154.0E
140300Z 升格22W 9.6N  152.9E
141800Z JMA GW
151800Z 命名卢碧
一度为超级台风（135kt，by JTWC）和超强台风（65m/s，by CMA）
快速西行后陷入鞍型场，多次转向：西-西北-北-东北-西北西-西南西-西--北-东北。2318Z第二次转东北后，开始加速，并向温带气旋转化。
云图附件：

且听风铃

风场记录：

cwnraul

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0N 161.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF INFLOW
TOWARDS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT BUT
DISORGANIZED OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. A 130234Z
AQUA-1 PASS SHOWS SPORADIC CONVECTION AND INDICATIONS OF LOW LEVEL
BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE CIRCULATION, HELPING TO
PROVIDE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW FOR THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A BROAD
CIRCULATION THAT IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, GOOD VWS, AND
FAVORABLE SST/OHC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

liuxinmin

目前还很弱,在整合中,如把南面的云团整合进来,估计会爆发.93W已挂了,西太的热带扰动就看它了

威尼斯0519

TPPN11 PGTW 132121

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (W OF MARSHALL ISLANDS)

B. 13/2030Z

C. 9.0N

D. 154.4E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   SMITH

dnt02

東南象限出現烈風..東風波發展上來真是很厲害~
WTPN21 PGTW 132330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 154.6E TO 12.8N 145.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 16 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131730Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 154.0E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
161.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-
EAST OF CHUUK. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 132118Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH THAT HAS DEVELOPED WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF THE
FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
JUST WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTH OF THE LLCC.
THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE SYSTEM ALSO IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 16 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

li0627

JTWC已经升格22W。第20号台风卢碧，相信很快就要闪亮登场，继承一世卢碧的强大。

JMA 00UTC：

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 09.7N 152.8E TRUKS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

威尼斯0519

22W TWENTYTWO.25kts-1004mb-96N-1529E

zjb0505

环流不错..........眼墙有待组织......

win107123

一大片东风