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WTPN32 PGTW 032100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 21.2N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 135.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.9N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.7N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.6N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 24.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.5N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
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96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
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120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 28.0N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 136.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 030923Z QUIKSCAT PASS. TD 09W
IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING
WILL BUILD TO THE WEST CAUSING THE SHIFT TO A WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND
TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL IN MAINLAND CHINA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TD 09W. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF TD 09W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: FIXED MANOP HEADER FROM PHNC
TO PGTW.//
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